Goals

The Polar Prediction Project has been initiated following Resolution 17 (EC-64), paragraph 4.5.5., of the World Meteorological Organization's Executive Council. The project shall serve growing demand for skilful and reliable predictions in polar regions and beyond. The following goals have been set:

  • Improve the understanding of the requirements for, and evaluate the benefits of, enhanced prediction information and services in polar regions

  • Establish and apply verification methods appropriate for polar regions

  • Provide guidance on optimizing polar observing systems, and coordinate additional observations to support modelling and verification

  • Improve representation of key processes in models of the polar atmosphere, land, ocean and cryosphere

  • Develop data assimilation systems that account for the unique characteristics of polar regions

  • Develop and exploit ensemble prediction systems with appropriate representation of initial condition and model uncertainty for polar regions

  • Determine predictability and identify key sources of forecast errors in polar regions

  • Improve knowledge of two-way linkages between polar and lower latitudes, and their implications for global prediction.