The YOPP Verification Task Team

Members: Barbara Casati, Thomas Haiden, Greg Smith, Helge Goessling, Stella Melo, Eugene Petrescu

Purpose

In Autum 2016 the Polar Prediction Project (PPP) Steering Group (SG) has formed several task teams in order to prioritize and coordinate operational and research activities for the forthcoming Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP). The YOPP verification task team has been set up in order to help outlining a YOPP verification strategy and develop/support a YOPP verification effort. The YOPP verification task team has therefore primarily an advisory role, however - through this website - we hope to provide also a platform for exchange, in order to connect YOPP ongoing verification activities (to ensure harmonization and avoid duplication).

Goals

The key deliverable of the YOPP verification task team is to outline a YOPP verification plan. The design of a verification strategy depends on the purpose of the verification: the YOPP verification task team focuses on verification for modellers and for the general users. The main goal is to demonstrate the advancements associated with the YOPP modelling and observation efforts. Some of the expected outcomes are: i) quantifying the accuracy of current numerical models in polar regions; ii) demonstrate the added value of enhanced observations in data assimilation, numerical prediction, and verification practices; iii) assess the impact of coupling (ocean-land-atmosphere and sea-ice) in dynamical models on environmental prediction; iv) identify systematic errors in numerical models and physical processes which need improvements in their representation, and v) quantify the impacts of the improved polar prediction on the accuracy of mid-latitude weather (and climate) prediction. User-oriented verification, which needs to be tailored to the very specific end-user parameters and needs, is tackled as a joint topic with the
YOPP SERA group.

Operations and Research

Verification within YOPP has two components: the first is to produce verification results which are informative for modellers and end-users; the second is to serve as a platform for the investigation of verification challenges and the development of new techniques. The YOPP verification task team aims to provide guidance for both.

Documentation

Documentation relevant for planning the YOPP verification effort has been prepared:

1) The report on "Verification of Environmental Prediction in Polar Regions: recommendations for the Year of Polar Prediction" prepared by Casati and co-authors (2017) focuses mainly on the verification challenges and methods.

2) A short document outlining the main YOPP verification goals, including a list of prioritized verification experiments / processes / variables / scores (in preparation).

3) A short presentation prepared by Casati and co-authors (Oslo, 10 Nov 2016) lists the needs of the verification community for planning the
YOPP archive
.

Verification links

  • The Forecast Verification FAQ web page developed and maintained by the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) includes a review of standard and advanced verification methods, links to verification websites, and a very complete list of references.
  • The official JWGFVR webpage WWRP/WGNE Forecast Verification Research includes the verification recommendation reports.
  • The Spatial Verification Methods Inter-Comparison Projects is an international meta-verification project where  spatial verification methods are tested on a common set of cases, and their diagnostic capabilities are analysed, in order to provide guidance on the optimal application of these techniques.
  • The Model Evaluation Tools is a verification package developed at NCAR which includes traditional (continuous, categorical, probabilistic and ensembles) and spatial verification techniques.

Contact

This webpage is in development and aims to serve as an exchange platform: constructive suggestions can be sent to barbara.casati(at)canada.ca or to the ICO.