MOSAiC Near Real-Time Verification

The goal of MOSAiC-NRV is to evaluate the skill of fully-coupled short-term forecasts after each leg (approximately every 2-3 months) of the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) campaign at the Polarstern location. MOSAiC-NRV website is updated after each observational leg. Multi-model diagnostics focus on process-based evaluation of the coupled system to identify systematic biases that limit the skill of Arctic forecasts. Observations of snow/sea-ice characteristics, the atmospheric structure, cloud characteristics (based on radar/lidar), and surface fluxes are used in the evaluation.

MOSAiC is the first year-round drift expedition into the central Arctic. The primary goal of MOSAiC is to advance the understanding of coupled climate processes in the Central Arctic, so they can be more accurately integrated into regional and global climate models. The MOSAiC Near Real-Time Verification Project (MOSAiC-NRV) is designed to use the observations taken during MOSAiC to improve the simulation of coupled processes unique to the Arctic. Short-term forecasts are used in this project to identify potential errors in the representation of "fast" processes that cause biases in climate model projections of Arctic climate change.

All fully-coupled short-term forecasts are welcome to participate in this activity. To be included in this study, model output needs to be reformatted following the MIP framework into Merged Model Data Files (MMDF).