YOPP Task Team on Numerical Experimentation

Purpose

Use numerical experimentation to:

(i) identify the processes relevant for polar prediction that need to be improved in weather and climate models; and

(ii) better understand the role of the current polar observing systems for forecast skill on timescales ranging from a few days to a few months ahead to help guide the design of future observing systems

Goals

  • Carry out Observing System Experiments (in which some observations are denied) to provide guidance for an optimized polar observing system
  • Improve the use of current observing systems in polar prediction, with an emphasis on NWP
  • Using the YOPP verification approaches, combined with numerical experimentation such as relaxation or sensitivity experiments, to identify parameterizations or processes that should be improved in NWP systems to improve predictive skill in the Arctic and beyond

Members and Contact

Members

  • Irina Sandu, PPP SG, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
  • Thomas Jung, PPP SG, Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI)
  • Jørn Kristiansen, PPP SG, Norwegian Meteorological Institute
  • Jonathan Day, PPP SG, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
  • Jun Inoue, PPP SG, National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR)
  • Stephane Laroche, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)
  • Emmanuel Poan, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)
  • Roger Randriamampianina, Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Contact

Irina Sandu, PPP SG, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Documentation

Lawrence, H., Bormann, N., Sandu, I., Day, J., Farnan, J., Bauer, P., 2019: User and impact of Arctic observations in the ECMWF Numerical Weather Prediction system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 145, Issue 725, pp. 3432-3454. doi: 10.1002/qj.3628.

Day, J., Sandu, I., Magnusson, L., Rodwell, M. J., Lawrence, H., Bormann, N., Jung, T., 2019: Increased Arctic influence on the midlatitude flow during Scandinavian Blocking episodes. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 145, Issue 725, pp. 3846-3862. doi: 10.1002/qj.3676.

Lawrence, H., Bormann, N., Sandu, I., Farnan, J., Bauer, P., 2019: The impact od Arctic observations on ECWMF NWP forecasts. ECMWF Memo, APPLICATE General Assembly 2019.