YOPP Task Team on Sea Ice Prediction and Verification

Purpose

To foster collaboration between the different domains impacted by sea-ice in order to improve the predictability of sea-ice and its representation in numerical models.

Goals

  • Carry-out joint effort between climate and short-to-medium range ice forecasting groups centred around sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting to better understand fundamentals of sea ice predictability and related forecasting issues.
  • Facilitate collaboration between ocean modelling (e.g. FAMOS, CLIVAR) and operational groups (GOV, IICWG) to identify sources of forecast error and improve related model physics.
  • Improve communication between user groups (ice services, marine operations) and research communities to identify specific needs and provide more targeted products.
  • Develop improved sea ice verification metrics (together with YOPP Verification Task Team) and their standardization across the ice forecast communities to allow the intercomparison of products and to provide a clearer understanding of forecast quality by user groups. In particular, explore options to expand sea ice verification from the current focus on concentration, edge, drift to consider ice thickness, ice pressure, stage of ice development, Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) properties and the impact of complex orography (e.g. in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago).
  • Improve the use of satellite data over sea ice and snow and in cloudy conditions.
  • Carry out a Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx) using IABP buoys and the location of the Polarstern during in-ice drift (2019-2020) to support the MOSAiC experiment and to intercompare a range of forecast systems. See https://www.polarprediction.net/key-yopp-activities/sea-ice-prediction-and-verification/sea-ice-drift-forecast-experiment/.
  • Explore possibilities for drifting column experiment using MOSAiC data (associated with YOPPSiteMIP), including ice thickness distribution and deformation data. In this context, promote the storage and exploration of collocated ice-ocean forecasts through the GOV intercomparison.
  • Develop a common set of sea ice reference forecasts (e.g., damped anomaly persistence) for sub-seasonal ice forecast skill. Facilitate and encourage its use among forecasting centres to allow intercomparison of forecast skill between groups.
  • Raise awareness and promote use of YOPP and related data sets that merit more analyses by the sea ice community.

Members and Contact

Members

  • Gregory Smith, PPP SG, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)
  • Helge Goessling, ICO, Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI)
  • Rick Allard, Naval Research Laboratory
  • Laurent Bertino, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
  • Ed Blockley, Met Office UK
  • Barbara Casati, PPP SG, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)
  • Robert Grumbine, PPP SG, NOAA/ National Weather Service, Environmental Modeling Center
  • François Massonnet, UC Louvain
  • Till Soya Rasmussen, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)
  • Ignatius Rigor, University of Washington
  • Axel J. Schweiger, University of Washington
  • Amy Solomon, CIRES, University of Colorado & ESRL/NOAA
  • Steffen Tietsche, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
  • Qinghua Yang, PPP SG, Sun Yat-sen University

Contact

Gregory Smith, PPP SG, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)
Helge Goessling, ICO, Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI)

Documentation