Below, you will find a list of papers which are relevant for the research topic of polar prediction. To keep this list updated, we kindly ask you to please inform us about any new articles that you are publishing within this frame.

A list of papers directly related (e.g., via acknowledgement or reference) to the Polar Prediction Project and the Year of Polar Prediction can be found at our Google Scholar account.

For reference to YOPP in the acknowledgements of research articles, please see the following suggestion here.

2021

• Bromwich, D. H., Lazzara, M. A., Cayette, A. M., Powers, J. G., Werner, K., Cassano, J. J., Colwell, S. R., Carpentier, S., Zou, X., 2021: The 16th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate and 6th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere Meeting. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1384-4.
• Casati, B., Mekis, E., Køltzow, M., 2021: Adjustment of wind induced solid precipitation undercatch in operational verification pratices. In: Research Activities in Earth System Modelling, The WGNE Blue Book, 2021.
• Hong, X., Doyle, J. D., Tyndall, D. P., 2021: Impact of Assimilating the Special Radiosonde Observations on COAMPS Arctic Forecasts During the Year of Polar Prediction. Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications, IV, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77722-7_14.
• Sandu, I., Massonnet, F., van Achter, G., Acosta Navarro, J. C., Arduini, G., Bauer, P., Blockley, E., Bormann, N., Chevallier, M., Day, J., Dahoui, M., Fichefet, T., Flocco, D., Jung, T., Hawkins, E., Laroche, S., Lawrence, H., Kristiansen, J., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Ortega, P., Poan, E., Ponsoni, L., Randriamampianina, R., 2021: The potential of numerical predication systems to support the design of Arctic observing systems: Insights from the APPLICATE and YOPP projects. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4182. 
• Terpstra, A., Renfrew, I. A., Sergeev, D. E., 2021: Characteristics of Cold-Air Outbreak Events and Associated Polar Mesoscale Cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic Region. Journal of Climate, 34 (11), doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0595.1. 
• Cox, C. J., Morris, S. M., Uttal, T., Burgener, R., Hall, E., Kutchenreiter, M., McComiskey, A., Long, C. N., Thomas, B. D., Wendell, J., 2021: The De-Icing Comparison Experiment (D-ICE): a study of broadband radiometric measurements under icing conditions in the Arctic. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 14 (2), doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-1205-2021. 
• Elvidge, A. D., Renfrew, I. A., Brooks, I. M., Srivastava, P., Yelland, M. J., Prytherch, J., 2021: Surface Heat and Moisture Exchange in the Marginal Ice Zone: Observations and a New Parameterization Scheme for Weather and Climate Models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126 (17), doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034827.
• González, S., Vasallo, F., Sanz, P., Quesada, A., Justel, A., 2021: Characterization of the summer surface mesoscale dynamics at Dome F, Antarctica. Atmospheric Research, 259, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105699.
• Wang, D., Guo, J., Xu, H., Li, J., Lv, Y., Solanki, R., Guo, X., Han, Y., Chen, T., Ding, M., Chen, A., Bian, L., Rinke, A., 2021: Vertical structures of temperature inversions and clouds derived from high-resolution radiosonde measurements at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. Atmospheric Research, 254, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105530. 
• Zhang, L., Li, J., Ding, M., Guo, J., Bian, L., Sun, Q., Yang, Q., Dou, T., Zhang, W., Tian, B., Lu, C., Zhang, D., 2021: Characteristics of low-level temperature inversions over the Arctic Ocean during the CHINARE 2018 campaign in summer. Atmospheric Environment, 253, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118333.
• Inoue, J., Sato, K., Rinke, A., Cassano, J. J., Fettweis, X., Heinemann, G., Matthes, H., Orr, A., Phillips, T., Seefeldt, M., Solomon, A., Webster, S., 2021: Clouds and radiation processes in regional climate models evaluated using observations over the ice-free Arctic Ocean. Journal of Geophysica Research: Atmospheres, 126, doi: 10.1029/2020JD033904.
• Xiu, Y., Min, C., Xie, J., Mu, L., Han, B., Yang, Q., 2021: Evaluation of sea-ice thickness reanalysis data from the coupled ocean-sea-ice data assimilation system TOPAZ4. Journal of Glaciology, doi: 10.1017/jog.2020.110.
• Min, C., Yang, Q., Mu, L., Kauker, F., Ricker, R., 2021: Ensemble-based estimation of sea-ice volume variations in the Baffin Bay. The Cryosphere 15, doi: 10.5194/tc-15-169-2021.
• Shi, Q., Yang, Q., Mu, L., Wang, J., Massonnet, F., Mazloff, M. R., 2021: Evaluation of sea-ice thickness from four reanalyses in the Antarctic Weddell Sea. The Cryosphere 15, doi: 10.5194/tc-15-31-2021.

2020

• Liu, J., Bromwich, D., Chen, D., Cordero, R., Jung, T., Raphael, M., Turner, J., Yang, Q., 2020: Preface to the Special Issue on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate: Past, Present and Future. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 37, doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-2001-7.
• Bazile, E., Azouz, N., Napoly, A., Loo, C., 2020: Impact of the 1D sea-ice model GELATO in the global model ARPEGE. In: Research Activities in Earth System Modelling, The WGNE Blue Book, Report No. 50, 2020; E. Astakhova (ed.).
• Wang, D., Guo, J., Chen, A., Bian, L., Ding, M., Liu, L., Lv, Y., Li, J., Guo, X., Han, Y., 2020: Temperature Inversion and Clouds Over the Arctic Ocean Observed by the 5th Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125(13), doi: 10.1029/2019JD032136.
• Blair, B., Lee, O.A., Lamers, M., 2020: Four Paradoxes of the User-Provider Interface: A Responsible Innovation Framework for Sea Ice Services. Sustainability 12 (2), 448. doi: 10.3390/su12020448.
• Kodaira, T., Waseda, T., Nose, T., Inoue, J., 2020: Record high Pacific Arctic seawater temperatures and delayed sea ice advance in response to episodic atmospheric blocking. Scientific Reports, 10, 20830, doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77488-y. 
• Hori, M., Inoue, J., Dethloff, K., Kustov, V., 2020: Near-tropopause bias in the Russian radiosonde-observed air temperature during the YOPP special observing periods in 2018. Polar Science, doi: 10.1016/j.polar.2020.100601. 
• Ricaud, P., Del Guasta, M., Bazile, E., Azouz, N., Lupi, A., Durand, P., Attié, J.-L., Veron, D., Guidard, V., Grigioni, P., 2020: Supercooled liquid water cloud observed, analysed, and modelled at the top of the planetary boundary layer above Dome C, Antarctica. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20, doi: 10.5194/acp-20-4167-2020.
• Bauer, P., Sandu, I., Magnusson, L., Mladek, R., Fuentes, M., 2020: ECMWF global coupled atmosphere, ocean and sea-ice dataset for the Year of Polar Prediction 2017-2020. Scientific Data 7 (427), doi: 10.1038/s41597-020-00765-y.
• Gorodetskaya, I. V., Silva, T., Schmithüsen, H., Hirasawa, N., 2020: Atmospheric River Signatures in Radiosonde Profiles and Reanalyses at the Dronning Maud Land Coast, East Antarctica. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 37, 455-476, doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-9221-8.
• Hao, G., Pirazzini, R., Yang, Q., Tian, Z., Liu, C., 2020: Spectral albedo of coastal landfast sea ice in Prydz Bay, Antarctica. Journal of Glaciology, doi: 10.1017/jog.2020.90.
• Valkonen, T., Stoll, P., Batrak, Y., Køltzow, M., Schneider, T. M., Stigter, E. E., Aashamar, O. B., Støylen, E., Jonassen, M. O., 2020: Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 72 (1), doi: 10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181.
• Køltzow, M., Casati, B., Haiden, T., Valkonen, T., 2020: Verification of Solid Precipitation Forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Norway. Weather and Forecasting, 35 (6), 2279-2292, doi: 101175/WAF-D-20-0060.1.
• Bromwich, D. H., Werner, K., Casati, B., Powers, J. G., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Massonnet, F., Vitale, V., Heinrich, V., J., Liggett, D., Arndt, S., Barja, B., Bazile, E., Carpentier, S., Carrasco, J. F., Choi, T., Choi, Y., Colwell, S. R., Cordero, R. R., Gervasi, M., Haiden, T., Hirasawa, N., Inoue, J., Jung, T., Kalesse, H., Kim, S.-J., Lazzara, M. A., Manning, K. W., Norris, K., Park, S.-J., Reid, P., Rigor, I., Rowe, P. M., Schmithüsen, H., Seifert, P., Sun, Q., Uttal, T., Zannoni, M., and Zou, X., 2020: The Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), 101 (10), E1653-E1676, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0255.1.
• Gonzalez, S., Callado, A., Martínez, M., and Elvira, B., 2020: The AEMET-γSREPS over the Antarctic Peninsula and the impact of kilometric-resolution EPS on logistic activities on the continent. Advances in Science and Research, 17, 209–217, doi:10.5194/asr-17-209-2020.
• Scarchili, C., Ciardini, V., Grigioni, P., Iaccarino, A., De Silvestri, L., Proposito, M., Dolci, S., Camporeale, G., Schioppo, R., Antonelli, A., Baldini, L., Roberto, N., Argentini, S., Bracci, A., and Frezzotti, M., 2020: Characterization of snowfall estimated by in situ and ground-based remote-sensing observations at Terra Nova Bay, Victoria Land, Antarctica. Journal of Glaciology, doi: 10.1017/jog.2020.70.
• Sato, K., Inoue, J., and Yamazaki, A., 2020: Performance of Forecasts of Hurricanes with and without Upper-Level Troughs over the Mid-Latitudes. Atmosphere, 11 (7), 702, doi: 10.3390/atmos11070702.
• Nose, T., Waseda, T., Kodaira, T., and Inoue, J., 2020: Satellite-retrieved sea ice concentration uncertainty and its effect on modelling wave evolution in marginal ice zones. The Cryosphere, 14, pp. 2029-2052, doi: 10.5194/tc-14-2029-2020.
• Sun, Q. Z., Vihma, T., Jonassen, M. O.,  and Zhang, Z. H., 2020: Impact of assimilation of radiosonde and UAV observations from the Southern Ocean in the Polar WRF model. Adv. Atmos. Sci. , 37, 1-14, doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-9213-8.
• Inoue, J., 2020:Review of forecast skills for weather and sea ice in supporting Arctic navigation. Polar Science. doi: 10.1016/j.polar.2020.100523.
• Sato, K., Inoue, J., Yamazaki, A., Hirasawa, N., Sugiura, K., and Yamada, K., 2020: Antarctic Radiosonde Observations Reduce Uncertainties and Errors in Reanalyses and Forecasts over the Southern Ocean: An Extreme Cyclone Case. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-8231-x.
• Special Issue in Polar Geography, Volume 43, Issue 2-3 (2020): Societal Value of Improved Forecasting
  • Stewart, E.J., Liggett, D., Lamers, M., Ljubicic, G., Dawson, J., Thoman, R., Haavisto, R., Carrasco, J., 2020: Characterizing polar mobilities to understand the role of weather, water, ice and climate (WWIC) information. Polar Geography 43 (2-3), 95-119. doi: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707319.
  • Haavisto, R., Lamers, M., Thomas, R., Liggett, D., Carrasco, J., Dawson, J., Ljubicic, G., Stewart, E., 2020: Mapping weather, water, ice and climate (WWIC) information providers in Polar Regions: who are they and who do they serve?. Polar Geography 43 (2-3), 120-138. doi: 10.1080/10.88937X.2019.1707320.
  • Jeuring, J., Knol-Kauffman, M., Sivle, A., 2020: Toward valuable weather and sea-ice services for the marine Arctic: exploring user-producer interfaces of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Polar Geography 43 (2-3), 139.159. doi: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1679270.
  • Wagner, P.M., Hughes, N., Bourbonnais, P., Strove, J., Rabenstein, L., Bhatt, U., Little, J., Wiggins, H., Fleming, A., 2020: Sea-ice information and forecast needs for industry maritime stakeholders. Polar Geography 43 (2-3), 160-187. doi: 10.1080/1088937X.2020.176659.
  • Bronen, R., Pollock, D., Overbeck, J., Stevens, D., Natali, S., Maio, C., 2020: Usteq: integrating indigenous knowledge and social and physical sciences to coproduce knowledge and support community-based adaption. Polar Geography 43 (2-3), 188-205. doi: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1679271.
  • Kettle, N.P., Abdel-Fattah, D., Mahoney, A.R., Eicken, H., Brigham, L.W., Jones, J., 2020: Linking Arctic system science research to decision maker needs: cp-producing sea ice decision support tools in Utqiaġvik, Alaska. Polar Geography 43 (2-3), 206-222. doi: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707318.
  • Waruna Arampath De Silva, L., Inoue, J., Yamaguchi, H., and Terui, T., 2020: Medium range sea ice prediction in support of Japanese research vessel MIRAI's expedition cruise in 2018. Polar Geography 43 (2-3), 223-239. doi: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707317.

2019

• Renfrew, I. A., Elvidge, A. D., Edwards, J. M., 2019: Atmospheric sensitivity to marginal-ice-zone drag: Local and global responses. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (720), doi: 10.1002/qj.3486.
• Day, J. J., Sandu, I., Magnusson, L., Rodwell, M. J., Lawrence, H., Bormann, N., Jung, T., 2019: Increased Arctic influence on the midlatitude flow during Scandinavian Blocking episodes. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (725), doi: 10.1002/qj.3673.
• Zampieri, L., Goessling, H. F., Jung, T., 2019: Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice Edge on Subseasonal Time Scales. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (16), doi: 10.1029/2019GL084096.
• Koldunov, N. V., Danilov, S., Sidorenko, D., Hutter, N., Losch, M., Goessling, H., Rakowsky, N., Scholz, P., Sein, D., Wang, Q., Jung, T., 2019: Fast EVP Solutions in a High-Resolution Sea Ice Model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11 (5), doi: 10.1029/2018MS001485.
• Batrak, Y., Müller, M., 2019: On the warm bias in atmospheric reanalysis induced by the missing snow over Arctic sea ice. Nature Communications. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-11975-3.
• Palerme, C., Müller, M., Melsom, A., 2019: An Intercomparison.of Verification Scores for Evaluating the Sea Ice Egde Position in Seasonal Forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: 10.1029/2019GL082482.
• Melsom, A., Palerme, C., Müller, M., 2019: Validation metrics for ice edge position forecasts. Ocean Science, 15, 3, 615-630. doi:10.5194/os-15-615-2019.
• Gonzalez, S., Bañon, M., Albero, J.V., Larramendi, R., Moreno, H., Vasallo, F., Sanz, P., Quesada, A., and Justel, A., 2019: Weather Observations of Remote Polar Areas Using an AWS Onboard a Unique Zero-Emissions Polar Vehicle. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0110.1.
• Smith, G.C., Allard, R., Babin, M., Bertino, L., Chevallier, M., Corlett, G., Crout, J., Davidson, F., Delille, B., Gille, S.T., Hebert, D., Hyder, P., Intrieri, J., Lagunas, J., Larnicol, G., Kaminski, T., Kater, B., Kauker, F., Marec, C., Mazloff, M., Metzger, E.J., Mordy, C., O'Carroll, A., Olsen, S.M., Phelps, M., Posey, P., Prandi, P., Rehm, E., Reid, P., Rigor, I., Sandven, S., Shupe, M., Swart, S., Smedstad, O.M., Solomon, A., Storto, A., Thibaut, P., Toole, J., Wood, K., Xie, J., Yang, Q., and the WWRP PPP Steering Group, 2019: Polar Ocean Observations: A Critical Gap in the Observing System and Its Effect on Environmental Predictions From Hours to a Season. Frontiers in Marine Sciences: Ocean Observation. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00429.
• Naakka, T., Nygård, T., Tjernström, M., Vihma, T., Pirazzini, R., Brooks, I.M, 2019: The Impact of Radiosounding Observations on Numerical Weather Analyses in the Arctic. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: 10.1029/2019GL083332.
• Køltzow, M., Casati, B., Bazile, E., Haiden, T., Valkonen, T., 2019: A NWP model inter-comparison of surface weather parameters in the European Arctic during the Year of Polar Prediction Special Observing Period Northern Hemisphere 1. Weather and Forecasting, Volume 34 No. 3, June 2019. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0003.1.
• Sato, K., Inoue, J., 2019: Relationship between transpolar flights over the Arctic and the upper atmospheric circulation. Okhotsk Sea and Polar Oceans Research Association.
• Lawrence, H., Farnan, J., Sandu, I., Bormann, N., Bauer, P., Magnusson, L., 2019: An Assessment of the use of observations in the Arctic at ESMWF. ECMWF Technical Memorandum No. 845.

2018

• Goessling, H. F., Jung, T., 2018: A probabilistic verification score for contours: Methodology and application to Arctic ice-edge forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (712), doi: 10.1002/qj.3242.
• Zhang, X., Jung, T., Wang, M., Luo, Y., Semmler, T., Orr, A., 2018: Preface to the special issue: Towards improving understanding and prediction of Arctic change and its linkage with Eurasian mid-latitude weather and climate. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35, doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-7004-7.
• Semmler, T., Jung, T., Kasper, M. A., Serrar, S., 2018: Using NWP to assess the influence of the Arctic atmosphere on midlatitude weather and climate. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35, doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6290-4.
• Yamada, K., Hirasawa, N., 2018: Analysis of a Record-Breaking Strong Wind Event at Syowa Station in January 2015. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere 123 (24), 13,643-13,657. doi: 10.1029/2018JD028877.
• Lamers, M., Duske, P., van Bets, L., 2018: Understanding user needs: a practice.based approach to exploring the role of weather and sea ice services in European Arctic expedition cruising. Polar Geography 41 (4), 262-278. doi: 10.1080/1088937X.2018.1513959.
• Knol, M., Arbo, P., Duske, P., Gerland, S., Lamers, M., Pavlova, O., Sivle, A.D., Tronstad, S., 2018: Making the Arctic predictable: the changing information infrastructure of Arctic weather and sea ice services. Polar Geography 41 (4), 279-293. doi: 10.1080/1088937X.2018.1522382.
• Batrak, Y., Müller, M., 2018: Atmospheric Response to Kilometer-Scale Changes in Sea Ice Concentration Within the Marginal Ice Zone. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 13, 6,702-6,709. doi: 10.1029/2018GL078295.
• Sato, K., Inoue, J., Alexander, S.P., McFarquhar, G., Yamazaki, A., 2018: Improved Reanalysis and Prediction of Atmospheric Fields Over the Southern Ocean Using Campaign-Based Radiosonde Observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 20, 11,406-11,413. doi: 10.1029/2018GL079037.
• Kaminski, T., Kauker, F., Toudal Pedersen, L., Voßbeck, M., Haak, H., Niederdrenk, L., Hendricks, S., Ricker, R., Karcher, M., Eicken, H., Gråbak, O., 2018: Arctic Mission Benefit Analysis: impact of sea ice thickness, and snow depth products on sea ice forecast performance. The Cryosphere, 12, 2569-2594. doi: 10.5194/tc-12-2569-2018.
• Sergeev, D.E., Renfrew, I.A., Spengler, T., 2018: Modification of Polar Low Development by Orography and Sea Ice. Monthly Weather Review, 146, 3325- 3341. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0086.1. 
• Chevallier, M., Massonnet, F., Goessling, H. F., Guémas, V., Jung, T., 2018: Chapter 10 - The Role of Sea Ice in Sub-seasonal Predictability, doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-811714-9.00010-3, in: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction - The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting, Andrew W. Robertson and Frédéric Vitart (eds.), pp. 201-221, Elsevier, ISBN: 978-0-12-811714-9.
• Zampieri, L., Goessling, H. F., Jung, T., 2018: Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: 10.1029/2018GL079394.
• Nakanowatari, T., Inoue, J., Sato, K., Bertino,  L.,  Xie, J., Matsueda, M., Yamagami, A., Sugimura, T., Yabuki, H., Otsuka, N., 2018: Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness distribution in the East Siberian Sea based on the TOPAZ4 ice–ocean data assimilation system. The Cryosphere, 12, 2005-2020, 2018. doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2005-2018.
• Waseda, T., Webb, A., Sato, K., Inoue, J., Kohout, A., Penrose, B., Penrose, S., 2018: Correlated increase of high ocean waves and winds in the ice-free waters of the Arctic Ocean. nature scientific Reports, 8, 4489. doi:10.1038/s41598-018-22500-9.
• Uotila, P., Goosse, H., Haines, K., Chevallier, M., Barthélemy, A., Bricaud, C., Carton, J., Fuçkar, N., Garric, G., Iovino, D., Kauker, F., Kerhonen, M., Lien, V.S., Marnela, M., Massonnet, F., Mignac, D., Peterson, K.A., Sadikni, R., Shi, L., Tietsche, S., Toyoda, T., Xie, J., Zhang ,Zh., 2018: An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4242-z.
• Ogle, S.E., Tamsitt, V., Josey, S. A., Gille, S.T., Cerovecki,   I., Talley, L.D., Weller,  R.A., in press: Extreme Southern Ocean heat loss and its mixed layer impacts revealed by the furthest south multi-year surface flux mooring. Geophys. Res. Lett., in press. doi:10.1029/2017GL076909.
• Mohammadi-Aragh, M., Goessling, H. , Losch, M. , Hutter, N. , Jung, T., 2018: Predictability of Arctic sea ice on weather time scales, nature scientific reports. doi:10.1038/s41598-018-24660-0
• Rabatel, M., Rampal, P., Bertino, L., Jones, C.K.R.T., 2018: Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic. The Cryosphere, 12, 935–953, 2018. doi:10.5194/tc-12-935-2018.
• Soldatenko, S., Tingwell, C., Steinle, P., Kelly-Gerreyn, B.A., 2018: Assessing the Impact of Surface and Upper-Air Observations on the Forecast Skill of the ACCESS Numerical Weather Prediction Model over Australia. Atmosphere, 9, 23. doi:10.3390/atmos9010023.

2017

• Day, J. J., Svensson, G., Brooks, I. M., Bitz, C., Broman, L., Carver, G., Chevallier, M., Goessling, H., Hartung, K., Jung, T., Kay, J. E., Kolstad, E. W., Perovich, D., Scree, J., Siemen, S., Váňa, F., 2017: The Abisko Polar Prediction School. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98 (3), doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0119.1.
• Miller, N. B., Shupe, M. D., Cox. C. J., Noone, D., Persson, P. O. G., Steffen, K., 2017: Surface energy budget responses to radiative at Summit, Greenland. The Cryosphere, 11 (1), doi: 10.5194/tc-11-497-2017.
• Lamers, M., Knol, M., Ljubicic, G., 2017: Exploring the user-producer interface of weather and sea ice information for Arctic marine mobilities: a dedicated session at the Ninth International Congress on Arctic Social Sciences (ICASS)10.5194/tc-11-497-2017. The Polar Journal 7 (2), 434-436. doi: 10.1080/2154896X.2017.1394108.
• Thoman Jr., R.L., Dawson, J., Liggett, D., Lamers, M., Stewart, E., Ljubicic, G., Knol, M., Hoke, W., 2017: Understanding the Creation and Use of Polar Weather and Climate Information. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98 (1). doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0195.1.
• Sergeev, D. E., Renfrew, I.A., Spengler, T., Dorling, S.R., 2017: Structure of a shear-line polar low. Quarterly J. Royal Meteorological Society, 143, 12-26. doi:10.1002/qj.2911.
• Müller, M., Batrak, Y., Kristiansen, J., Køltzow, M., Noer, G., Korosov, A., 2017: Characteristics of a convective-scale weather forecasting system for the European Arctic. Monthly Weather Review, 145 (12), 4771-4787. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0194.1.

2016

• Spengler, T., Renfrew, I. A., Terpstra, A., Tjernström, M., Screen, J., Brooks, I. M., Carleton, A., Chechin, D., Chen, L., Doyle, J., Esau, I., Hezel, P. J., Jung, T., Kohyama, T., Lüpkes, C., McCusker, K. E., Nygård, T., Sergeev, D., Shupe, M. D., Sodemann, H., Vihma, T., 2016: High-Latitude Dynamics of Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Interactions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97 (9), doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00302.1.
• Yang, Q., Losch, M., Loza, S. N., Jung, T., Nerger, L., Lavergne, T., 2016: Brief communication: The challenge and benefit of using sea ice concentration satellite data products with uncertainty estimates in summer sea ice data assimilation. The Cryosphere, 10 (2), doi: 10.5194/tc-10-761-2016.
• Semmler, T., Kasper, M. A., Jung, T., Serrar, S., 2016: Remote impact of the Antarctic atmosphere on the southern mid-latitudes. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25 (1), doi: 10.1127/metz/2015/0685.
• Cox, C. J., Uttal, T., Long, C. N., Shupe, M. D., Stone, R. S., Starkweather, S., 2016: The Role of Sprintime Arctic Clouds in Determining Autumn Sea Ice Extend. Journal of Climate, 29 (18), doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0136.1.
• Young, G., Jones, H.M., Choularton, T.W., Crosier, J., Bower, K.N., Gallagher, M.W., Davies, R.S., Renfrew, I.A., Elvidge, A.D., Darbyshire, E., Marenco, F., Brown, P.R.A., Connolly, P.J., Lloyd, G., Williams, P.I., Allan, J.D., Taylor, J.W., Liu, D., Flynn, M.J., 2016: Observed microphysical changes in Arctic mixed-phase clouds when transitioning from sea ice to open ocean. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16, 13945-13967. doi:10.5194/acp-16-13945-2016.
• Moore, G.W.K., Bromwich, D.H., Wilson, A.B., Renfrew, I., Bai, L., 2016: Arctic System Reanalysis improvements in topographically-forced winds near Greenland. Quarterly J. Royal Meteorological Society, 142, 2033-2045. doi:10.1002/qj.2798.
• Jones, R.W., Renfrew, I.A., Orr, A., Webber, B.G.M., Holland, D.M., Lazzara, M.A., 2016: Evaluation of four global reanalysis products using in situ observations in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere, 121, 6240-6257. doi:10.1002/2015JD024680. 
• Chevallier, M., Smith, G. C., Dupont, F., Lemieux, J. F., Forget, G., Fujii, Y., and coauthors, 2016: Intercomparison of the Arctic sea ice cover in global ocean–sea ice reanalyses from the ORA-IP project. Climate Dynamics, 1-30.
• Goessling, H. F. , Tietsche, S. , Day, J. J. , Hawkins, E. and Jung, T., 2016: Predictability of the
  Arctic sea ice edge. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: 10.1002/2015GL067232.

• Special Issue on Polar Prediction in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume 142, Issue 695
  • Bauer, P., Jung, T, 2016: Editorial for the Quarterly Journal's special issue on Polar Prediction. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 142: 537–538, January 2016 B DOI:10.1002/qj.2639
  • Hunke, E.C., 2016: Weighing the importance of surface forcing on sea ice: a September 2007 modelling study. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 142: 539-545, January 2016 B DOI:10.1002/qj.2353
  • Guemas, V., Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, E., Chevallier, M., Day, J.J., Déqué, M., Doblas‐Reyes, F.J., Fučkar, N.S., Germe, A., Hawkins, E., Keeley. S., Koenigk, T., Salas y Mélia, D., Tietsche, S., 2016: A review on Arctic sea‐ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time‐scales. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 142: 546-561, January 2016 B DOI:10.1002/qj.2401
  • Buehner, M., Caya, A., Carrieres, T., Pogson, L., 2016: Assimilation of SSMIS and ASCAT data and the replacement of highly uncertain estimates in the Environment Canada Regional Ice Prediction System. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 142: 562–573, January 2016 B DOI:10.1002/qj.2408
  • Jung, T., Matsueda, M., 2016: Verification of global numerical weather forecasting systems in polar regions using TIGGE data. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 142: 574–582, January 2016 B DOI:10.1002/qj.2437
  • Bauer, P., Magnusson, L., Thépaut, J.-N., Hamill, T.M., 2016: Aspects of ECMWF model performance in polar areas. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 142: 583–596, January 2016 B DOI:10.1002/qj.2449
  • Boullot, N., Rabier, F., Langland, R., Gelaro, R., Cardinali, C., Guidard, V., Bauer, P., Doerenbecher, A., 2016: Observation impact over the southern polar area during the Concordiasi field campaign. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 142: 597–610, January 2016 B DOI:10.1002/qj.2470
  • Smith, D.M., Scaife, A.A., Eade, R., Knight, J.R., 2016: Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 142: 611–617, January 2016 B DOI:10.1002/qj.2479
  • Elvidge, A.D., Renfrew, I.A., King, J.C., Orr, A., Lachlan‐Cope, T.A., 2016: Foehn warming distributions in nonlinear and linear flow regimes: a focus on the Antarctic Peninsula. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 142: 618–631, January 2016 B DOI:10.1002/qj.2489
  • Lemieux, J.-F., Beaudoin, C., Dupont, F., Roy, F., Smith, G.C., Shlyaeva, A., Buehner, M., Caya, A., Chen, J., Carrieres, T., Pogson, L., DeRepentigny, P., Plante, A., Pestieau, P., Pellerin, P., Ritchie, H., Garric, G., Ferry, N., 2016: The Regional Ice Prediction System (RIPS): verification of forecast sea ice concentration. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 142: 632–643, January 2016 B DOI:10.1002/qj.2526
  • Bromwich, D.H., Wilson, A.B., Bai, L.-Sh., Moore, G.W.K., Bauer. P., 2016: A comparison of the regional Arctic System Reanalysis and the global ERA‐Interim Reanalysis for the Arctic. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 142: 644–658, January 2016 B DOI:10.1002/qj.2527
  • Smith, G.C., Roy, F., Reszka, M., Surcel Colan, D., He., Zh., Deacu, D., Belanger, J.-M., Skachko, S., Liu, Y., Dupont, F., Lemieux, J.-F., Beaudoin, C., Tranchant, B., Drévillon, M., Garric, G., Testut, C.-E., Lellouche, J.-M., Pellerin, P., Ritchie, H., Lu, Y., Davidson, F., Buehner, M., Caya, A., Lajoie, M., 2016: Sea ice forecast verification in the Canadian Global Ice Ocean Prediction System. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 142: 659–671, January 2016 B DOI:10.1002/qj.2555
  • Hawkins, E., Tietsche, S., Day, J.D., Melia, N., Haines, K., Keeley, S., 2016: Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal‐to‐interannual Arctic sea‐ice prediction systems. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 142: 672–683, January 2016 B DOI:10.1002/qj.2643
      

2015

• Yang, Q., Losa, S. N., Losch, M., Jung, T., Nerger, L., 2015: The role of atmospheric uncertainty in Arctic summer sea ice data assimilation and prediction. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (691), doi: 10.1002/qj.2523.
• Inoue, J., A. Yamazaki, J. Ono, K. Dethloff, M. Maturilli, R. Neuber, P. Edwards, and H. Yamaguchi, 2015: Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route. Sci. Rep., 5, 16868. doi:10.1038/srep16868.
• Smith, G. C., Roy, F., Reszka, M., Surcel Colan, D., He, Z., Deacu, D., Belanger, J.-M., Skachko, S., Liu, Y., Dupont, F., Lemieux, J.-F., Beaudoin, C., Tranchant, B., Drévillon, M., Garric, G., Testut, C.-E., Lellouche, J.-M., Pellerin, P., Ritchie, H., Lu, Y., Davidson, F., Buehner, M., Caya, A. and Lajoie, M., 2015: Sea ice forecast verification in the Canadian Global Ice Ocean Predic-
  tion System. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.. doi: 10.1002/qj.2555.

2014

• Jung, T., Kasper, M. A., Semmler, T., Serrar, S., 2014: Arctic influence on subseasonal midlatitude prediction. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (10), doi: 10.1002/2014GL059961.
• Cox, C. J., Walden, V. P. Compo, G. P., Rowe, P. M., Shupe, M. D., Steffen, K., 2014: Downwelling longwave flux over Summit, Greenland, 2010-2012: Analysis of surface-based observations and evaluation of ERA-Interim using wavelets. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119 (21), doi: 10.1002/2014JD021975.
• Around the polar-lower latitudes linkages workshop 2014 held in Barcelona, a comprehensive list of relevant literature on the subject has been collected and compiled by François Massonnet: Link

2013

• Bromwich, D. H., F. O. Otieno, K. M. Hines, K. W. Manning, and E. Shilo, 2013: Comprehensive evaluation of polar weather research and forecasting performance in the Antarctic. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 274-292. doi: 10.1029/2012JD018139.
• Condron, A. and Renfrew, I. A., 2013: The impact of polar mesoscale storms on northeast Atlan-
  tic Ocean circulation. Nature Geosci, 6, 34-37. doi:10.1038/ngeo1661.
• Ebert, E., Wilson, L., Weigel, A., Mittermaier, M., Nurmi, P., Gill, P., Göber, M., Joslyn, S., Brown, B., Fowler, T. and Watkins, A., 2013: Progress and challenges in forecast verification. Met. Apps, 20: 130–139. doi: 10.1002/met.1392.
• Sigmond, M. et al., 2013: Seasonal forecast skill of Arctic sea ice area in a dynamical forecast system. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(3), pp.529–534.
• Smith, Laurence C. and Stephenson, Scott R., 2013: New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury. PNAS www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1.

2012

• M. Mittermaier, A. Ghelli, E. Ebert, L. Wilson and P. Nurmi, 2012: Recommended Methods for E-
  valuating Cloud and Related Parameters. WMO WWRP 2012-1, 32 pp.
• Powers, J., K. W. Manning, D. H. Bromwich, J. J. Cassano, and A. M. Cayette, 2012: A decade of Antarctic science support through AMPS. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 1699-1712. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00186.1.
• Wilson, A. B., D. H. Bromwich, K. M. Hines, 2012: Evaluation of Polar WRF forecasts on the Arctic System Reanalysis domain. 2. Atmospheric hydrologic cycle. J. Geophys. Res., 17, D04107. doi: 10.1029/2011JD016765.

2011

• Aspelien, T., Iversen, T., Bremnes, J. B., and Frogner, I.-L.,2011: Short-range probabilistic fore-
  casts from the Norwegian limited-area EPS: long-term validation and a polar low study. Tellus A, 63, 564–584.
• Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E. et al., 2011: Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on
  predicting Arctic sea ice. Geophys. Res. Lett, 38(L18503), p.L18503.
• Føre, I., J. E. Kristjánsson, Ø. Saetra, Ø. Breivik, B. Røsting, and M. Shapiro, 2011: The full life
  cycle of a polar low over the Norwegian Sea observed by three research aircraft flights. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1659–1673. doi:10.1002/qj.825.
• Irvine, E. A.,  S. L. Gray, J. Methven, I.A. Renfrew, 2011: Forecast impact of targeted observations: Sensitivity to observation error and proximity to steep orography. Monthly Weather Review, 139, 69-78.
• Kolstad, E. W., 2011: A global climatology of favourable conditions for polar lows. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137: 1749–1761. doi:10.1002/qj.888.
• Kristiansen, J., Sørland, S. L., Iversen, T., Bjørge, D. and Køltzow, M. Ø., 2011: High-resolution ensemble prediction of a polar low development. Tellus A, 63: 585–604.
• Kristjansson, J. E., Barstad, I., Aspelien, T., Føre, I., Godøy, Ø. A., Hov, Ø., Irvine, E., Iversen,T.,  Kolstad, E. W., Nordeng, T. E., McInnes, H., Randriamampianina, R., Reuder, J., Sætra, Ø.,  Shapiro, M. A., Spengler, T., Ólafsson, H., 2011: The Norwegian IPY-THORPEX. Po-
  lar Lows and Arctic  Fronts during the 2008 Andøya Campaign. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 92(11), 1443- 1466. doi: 10.1175/2011BAMS2901.1.
• Noer G, Saetra Ø, Lien T, Gusdal Y., 2011: A climatological study of polar lows in the Nordic
  Seas. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1762–1772. doi:10.1002/qj.846.
• Randriamampianina, R., Iversen, T., Storto, A., 2011. Exploring the assimilation of IASI radian-
  ces in forecasting polar lows. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137: 1700–1715. doi:10.1002/qj.838.

2010

• Linders, T. and Sætra, Ø., 2010: Can Cape Maintain Polar Lows?. J. Atmos. Sci. 67(8), 2559–2571. doi: 10.1175/2010JAS3131.1.

2009

• Bromwich, D. H., K. M. Hines, and L.-S. Bai, 2009: Development and testing of Polar WRF:
  2. Arctic Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D08122. doi: 10.1029/2008JD010300.
• Girard, L., J. Weiss, J.M. Molines, B. Barnier, and S. Bouillon, 2009: Evaluation of highresolution sea ice models on the basis of statistical and scaling properties of Arctic sea ice drift and defor-
  mation. J. Geophys. Res., 114, C08015. doi:10.1029/2008JC005182.
• Renfrew, I. A., G. N. Petersen, D. A. J. Sproson, G. W. K. Moore, H. Adiwidjaja, S. Zhang, and  R. North, 2009: A comparison of aircraft-based surface-layer observations over Denmark Strait
  and the Irminger Sea with meteorological analyses and QuikSCAT winds. Quarterly J. Royal Meteorol. Soc., 135, 2046-2066.
• Joint Working Group on Verification (B. Brown, H. Brooks, B. Casati, E. Ebert, A. Ghelli, M. Göber, M. Mittermeier, P. Nurmi, J. Stein, D. Stephenson, C. Wilson, L. Wilson), 2009: Recom-
  mendations for the Verification and Intercomparison of QPFs and PQPFs from Operational NWP Models. WMO TD No. 1485, WMO WWRP 2009-1, 37 pp.

2008

• Renfrew, I. A., G. W. K. Moore, J. E. Kristjánsson, H. Ólafsson, S. L. Gray, G. N. Petersen, K. Bovis, P. R. A. Brown, I. Føre, T. Haine, C. Hay, E. A. Irvine, A. Lawrence, T. Ohigashi, S. Outten, R. S. Pickart, M. Shapiro, D. Sproson, R. Swinbank, A. Woolley, S. Zhang, 2008: The
  Greenland Flow Distortion experiment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89, 1307-1324.

2007

• Jung, T. and Leutbecher, M., 2007: Performance of the ECMWF forecasting system in the Arc-
  tic during winter. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 133: 1327–1340. doi: 10.1002/qj.99.

2004

• Pellerin, P., H. Ritchie, F.J. Saucier, F. Roy, S. Desjardins, M. Valin, and V. Lee, 2004: Impact of a two-way coupling between an atmospheric and an ocean-ice model over the Gulf of St. Law-
  rence. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1379-1398.
• Van Woert, M.L., C.Z. Zou, W.N. Meier, and P.D. Hovey, 2004: Forecast verification of the Polar
  Ice Prediction System (PIPS) sea ice concentration fields. J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 21(6), 944-957.