20 February 2019: Renewal of Memorandum of Understanding between WMO and AWI
An extension of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU has been signed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the German Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI). This MoU will ensure continued support of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) by the International Coordination Office until YOPP will come to an end in 2022.
With the MoU, AWI has offered to continue hosting the International Coordination Office (ICO) of the Polar Prediction Project in form of an in-kind contribution. Currently lead by Kirstin Werner, the International Coordination Office supports the PPP Steering Group in the planning and implementation of PPP and YOPP priorities and coordinates activities with other WMO programmes and international partner organizations. The renewal of the MoU ensures administrative and organizational support by the ICO until the end of the Year of Polar Prediction in 2022.
19 February 2019: In the Mind of the Modeller – Interview with Helmholtz International Fellow 2018 Peter Bauer
In 2018, Peter Bauer, Deputy Director of Research at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) received the Helmholtz International Fellow Award. Antje Boetius, Director of the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), handed over the Helmholtz Fellow certificate to Peter Bauer for his frontier work in the field of high-resolution modelling, prediction and computing on 5 February 2018. During his one-week visit at AWI, we had the chance to meet the Helmholtz International Fellow for an interview about his research at ECMWF, the challenges that come with it, and the potential for future advancements in the field of weather prediction.
Peter Bauer, Deputy Director of Research and Manager of the Scalability Programme at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), has been one of the pioneers shaping the Polar Prediction Project and the Year of Polar Prediction as a Steering Group member from Day 1. For his frontier work in the field of high-resolution modelling, prediction and computing he has now received the Helmholtz International Fellow Award:"I am very grateful for that as it emphasises the need and opportunity for international collaboration. An international fellow is, by definition, based on collaboration between Helmholtz as a whole, with its different institutes and disciplines, and an international organisation like ECMWF."
Peter’s work brought significant advancements in many fields of Earth system research, such as satellite remote sensing in weather and climate prediction, the assimilation of observations in numerical models, climate monitoring, weather and climate model development and, more recently, the preparation of models and forecasting systems for extreme-scale computing. In the different roles he had since he first joined ECMWF in 2000, Peter Bauer has significantly supported the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), as well as large-scale projects such as the EU Horizon-2020 APPLICATE and Helmholtz Earth System Modelling (ESM) projects.
Read the full interview here.
Watch the video interview on the YOPP Youtube channel.
6 February 2019: APPLICATE General Assembly 2019 and Early Career Event
Based on an article published on the ECMWF website.
Some 70 scientists reviewed ‘exciting first results’ at the second General Assembly and an early career event of the EU-funded APPLICATE project on polar prediction at ECMWF from 28 January to 1 February 2019. The overarching goal of APPLICATE is to develop enhanced predictive capacity for weather and climate in the Arctic and beyond, and to determine the influence of Arctic climate change on northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, for the benefit of policy makers, businesses and society.
“Just over half-way into the project, APPLICATE is well on track: exciting first results were discussed and we expect to make further substantial progress over the next year,” says Irina Sandu, the coordinator of polar prediction activities at ECMWF and member of the PPP Steering Group.
One of the findings to date, reported by ECMWF scientist Heather Lawrence, is that existing observing systems in the Arctic improve forecast skill in the region in the short and medium range and in the mid-latitudes in the medium range.
“Interestingly, it appears that a better use of existing satellite observations, in particular over snow and sea ice, is probably just as important as new observations,” Heather Lawrence notes.
In terms of modelling, ECMWF scientist Gabriele Arduini presented progress on a new multi-layer snow scheme being developed at ECMWF.
“Our results suggest that a better description of snow physical processes improves the representation of the snowpack in our numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and reduces systematic errors in short-range wintertime forecasts of minimum temperature over the Arctic,” Gabriele Arduini says.
Other topics included atmospheric interactions between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes (Kunhui Ye, Alfred Wegener Institute); improving the representation of sea ice variability (Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Barcelona Supercomputing Center); and the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric response to Arctic summer sea ice loss (Svenya Chripko, CERFACS).
Training Sessions for Early Career Scientists
The last two days of the meeting were dedicated to supporting the work of early career scientists, which is also part of APPLICATE’S objectives. The event was jointly organized by APPLICATE, APECS and ECMWF and involved stimulating lectures on scientific writing by François Massonnet, project management by Luisa Cristini, and development of case studies by Dragana Bojovic and Marta Terrado.
“Training of early carreer scientists is critical for transfering comprehensive skills to the next generation of climate scientists. We were delighted to have such high-profile talks from ECMWF including Peter Bauer, Irina Sandu, the Copernicus team led by Jean-Noël Thépaut, and from other APPLICATE partners”, says APPLICATE project manager Luisa Cristini.
5 February 2019: YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere meeting #4 – SAVE THE DATE
The 4th YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere meeting will take place on 27-28 June 2019 in Charleston, South Carolina.
As in previous years, a YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) meeting will be held in conjunction with the Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate (WAMC). Hosted this year by the Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center (SSC) Atlantic, the 14th WAMC will is scheduled for 25 to 27 June 2019 to take place at the Citadel College, Bond Hall in Charleston, SC. Following WAMC, the YOPP-SH meeting #04 will start at 1 pm on 27 June and will be continued in the morning of 28 June.
Project investigators and representatives of national agencies active in Antarctica are invited to provide updates on their activities during the YOPP Special Observing Period (SOP) in the Southern Hemisphere, November 16, 2018 to February 15, 2019. To make most effective use in data denial experiments of all the additional radiosonde observations collected during the SOP, we want to assemble complete radiosonde data sets from all operators. We will likely want to assemble all surface observations as well. A key question to be decided by the meeting is whether to hold a winter SOP in the April-June time period in either 2020 or 2021.
For further information about the 14th WAMC, please see here. Details on registering for 14th WAMC and YOPP-SH#04 meetings will follow.
Any questions can be directed to David Bromwich email@example.com and Kirstin Werner firstname.lastname@example.org
1 February 2019: Why Don’t We Have Forecasts of Fish?
Many challenges remain before fish forecasts become a less fanciful reality, says Mark R. Payne, senior scientists at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU-Aqua), in the new contribution to Polar Prediction Matters.
The sea not only is a source of food but sustains a source for employment, revenue, tradition and culture. Foreseeing fluctuations of e.g., fish swarms would enable many societies and communities in the Arctic and beyond to much better prepare for the variable conditions of marine life. In his article for Polar Prediction Matters, Mark Payne who leads the Climate Services work package within the EU Horizon 2020 project Blue Action, describes the efforts to develop forecasts of living marine resources where the dynamics of a fish species and interactions between species are still complex and difficult to measure. While first fish forecast products have emerged already a decade ago, a predictive understanding of the relationship between the physical and biological environment remains challenging.
Read more here.
31 January 2019: Polar Prediction Project Steering Group Meeting #10 in Helsinki
The tenth session of the Polar Prediction Project Steering Group (PPP-SG) took place in Helsinki, Finland, at the headquarters of the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) from Wednesday 16th January 2019 to Friday 18th January 2019.
The meeting specifically focused upon refining the plan for the YOPP Consolidation Phase, developing plans for the third Special Observing Period for the Northern Hemisphere (SOP-3) as well as general coordination and administrative matters.
An updated plan for the YOPP Consolidation Phase (1 July 2019 to 31 December 2022) will be subsequently incorporated into a third version of the “WWRP Polar Prediction Project Implementation Plan for the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)” which is expected to be completed prior to the launch of the Consolidation Phase at the 18th World Meteorological Congress in Geneva in June 2019. The new draft plan for the Consolidation Phase builds upon the original plan identifying the key research, operations and services activities that will need to be carried out over the four years of YOPP Consolidation. As well, a range of evaluation metrics will be identified in the new version of the YOPP Implementation Plan to determine the success of YOPP prior to and following the conclusion of PPP in 2022. The PPP-SG also agreed on a new working structure to better fit the activities foreseen for the next four years.
A full meeting report is currently being prepared.
17 January 2019: Four Daily Radiosoundings from Antarctic Concordia Station
About four hundred students are involved in the educational project which has added two more radiosondes daily for two weeks to the Italian Meteo observatory programme of the French-Italian Antarctic research station Concordia. As a contribution to the Year of Polar Prediction’s Special Observing Period in the Southern Hemisphere, for the first time, four daily soundings at synoptic hours were performed from this station on the Antarctic Plateau which is considered one of the coldest places on Earth.
In addition to the two radiosoundings launched by the Italian meteorological observatory programme as a contribution to YOPP, two more weather balloons were deployed every day from the Italian-French station Concordia (also known as Dome C station), as part of the Italian education project CAPIRE-YOPP. CAPIRE is the acronym of the Italian title of the project "Comprendere lA PrevIsione meteoRologica in antartidE sostenendo YOPP" and means "Understand Antarctic weather forecast sustaining YOPP". At the same time CAPIRE translates to UNDERSTAND. From 1st to 14th January 2019, Concordia station for the first time performed four daily radiosoundings at synoptic hours 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The unique data set that has been produced during these two weeks in early January adds to the meteorological activities performed at Terra Nova Bay on the Antarctic coast. It will allow modellers and operational forcasting centers to evaluate the effect of enhanced weather observations to their weather forecasts for the Ross Sea and Victoria land areas throughout to the East Antarctic Plateau.
Outstanding Educational Activity
The field activities within CAPIRE-YOPP are related to an outstanding educational activity involving 17 intermediate and high schools of the Milan metropolitan area and are promoted by the University of Milano-Bicocca and the Italian National Research Council CNR. Thanks to the fundamental contribution by the Italian National Agency of New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development ENEA and by the Meteo Service of the Italian Air Force, about four hundred students could be involved in the various activities connected to polar meteorology and climate such as in-depth events, seminars, lessons including a visit to one of the operational meteorological centres in Italy. High school class students will be also involved in performing data analysis and present their scientific results.
On 27 November 2018, the field campaign of CAPIRE-YOPP has been launched with a live connection to Concordia station when students and teachers were able to directly talk to scientists who are staying at the station to carry out meteorological observations during this ongoing austral summer. With closing of the field work on 14 January another live connection to the station allowed a delegation of students and professors to meet the researchers engaged with the extra-soundings activities during YOPP’s Special Observing Period in Antarctica. Students will analyse the data, report their findings and be awarded at a final event in summer which also marks the end of the YOPP Core Phase. With this educational activity, students who might become the next generation of polar researchers are given a unique opportunity to learn and apply scientific methodologies and techniques, but also become familiar early in their career with the language of scientific research, well as with topics related to polar meteorology.
Live connection events, together with movies and pictures showing balloon launches and field activities can be followed here: https://volarebeyondyopp.blogspot.com/
24 December 2018: PolarPredictNews #09
A new issue of PolarPredictNews (#09) is now available for download.
On 16 November 2018, the first YOPP Special Observing Period in the Southern Hemisphere started. Read about the activiites of weather services and international scientists who are more than doubling the number of atmospheric and sea-ice observations from different Antarctic land stations, during terrestrial field expeditions, and aboard research vessels in the Southern Ocean for three months. Learn about the recent Italian support of the Year of Polar Prediction, read how YOPP was featured by the British Royal Meteorological Society, and find out about the sea-ice program from the German overwintering station Neumayer III in support of the Special Observing Period in the Antarctic. This and much more to find in PolarPredictNews #09.
24 December 2018: Initial Forecast Analysis of Seasonal Antarctic Sea Ice
(by François Massonnet/UC Louvain)
The initial analysis of seasonal sea-ice forecasts in Antarctica have been made available.
As part of its activities, the SIPN South project has collected seasonal forecasts of Antarctic sea ice aligned with the Year Of Polar Prediction Special Observing Period (austral summer 2018-2019).An initial analysis of these forecasts can be found in the following document:
The full report will be produced after the summer season when verification data will be available.
The SIPN South Leadership team: F. Massonnet, P. Reid, J. Lieser, C. M. Bitz, J. Fyfe, W. Hobbs
21 December 2018: Newly Installed Ice Stress Sensors on Labrador Coast
(by Adrienne Tivy, Jean-François Lemieux/both Environment and Climate Change Canada, and Bruno Tremblay/McGill University)
New sensors to measure ice stress have been installed recently by Environment and Climate Change Canada south of the community of Nain in Canada.
Goal of the multi-year field experiment project in Voisey`s Bay on the Labrador Coast is to study the internal ice stresses in a landfast ice cover under the effect of tidal and wind forcing and interaction between ice floes at the mouth of the fjord. With this, the team around Adrienne Tivy, Bruno Tremblay and Jean-François Lemieux aims to confirm the recent finding by Hata and Tremblay (2015) that (1) thermal stresses exhibit anisotropy in land-locked sea ice, (2) thermal stresses at depth have the opposite sign as those at the surface (tensile at the surface and compressive at depth when the surface cools, and vice versa), and (3) whether low (inertial to synoptic) frequency forcing from tidal currents and surface wind can be recorded by a strain gauge.
In spring 2018, three ice stress buoys (with three sensors each) were deployed for a short time along with a weather station and a MetOcean UpTempO instrument to measure ocean temperature with depth. This first deployment of the new sensors aimed at testing the equipment and identify potential problems before the first full season measurements start in winter 2019. Next year the team will also deploy a seasonal ice-mass balance buoy at the beginning of the freeze-up season in late fall.
Contact: Adrienne Tivy email@example.com
18 December 2018: Ninth International Workshop on Sea Ice Modelling, Data Assimilation and Verification
A joint workshop of the International Ice Charting Working Group (IICWG), the Year of Polar Prediction, GODAE Oceanview (GOV) and the Coordination & Support Action KEPLER by the European Commission will be held from 17 to 19 June 2019 in Bremen, Germany.
Hosted by the Alfred Wegener Institute, the workshop builds on a series of successful workshops organized by the IICWG Data Assimilation Working Group to advance international capabilities for automated sea ice analysis and prediction on timescales from hours to a season. In conjunction with the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) organized by the WWRP-PPP and GOV, a particular need has been identified regarding the development of more mature and meaningful methods for sea ice verification. The focus of the workshop is to discuss cross-cutting issues in sea ice modelling and data assimilation and how deficiencies of current systems can be more efficiently diagnosed and addressed.
Registration is due on 15 January 2019 via this website.
Participants will be contacted by 15 February 2019 regarding their proposed contribution. More information can be found here.
10 December 2018: YOPP Session at 27th IUGG General Assembly
YOPP will hold a session at the 27th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics that takes place from 8-18 July 2019 in Montréal, Québec, Canada.
Conveners of the session are Amelie Kirchgaessner (UK), Tom Bracegirdle (UK), Annick Terpstra (Norway) and Holger Schmithusen (Germany). The session will review efforts contributing to the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), particularly reports and first results from recent Special Observing Periods and field campaigns in the Arctic and Antarctic. In line with the interdisciplinary nature of the Year of Polar Prediction, contributions connecting the atmosphere with the ocean, cryosphere and biosphere are invited.
Deadline for abstract submission is 18 February 2019. Find more about IUGG 2019 at the meeting website. The description of the session M02 - FIRST RESULTS FROM THE YEAR OF POLAR PREDICTION (YOPP) can be found via iugg2019montreal.com/m.html
03 December 2018: New Director of YOPP International Coordination Office
From 1 December 2018, Kirstin Werner will serve as Director of the Year of Polar Prediction International Coordination Office.
Together with the chairman of the Polar Prediction Project Thomas Jung and the Steering Group, Kirstin Werner will continue fostering collaboration between international projects, initiatives, and programmes related to polar prediction research. Kirstin is an Arctic paleoclimatologist and has a master in science marketing with a focus on science communication. As project officer, she has already been engaged with the YOPP office since 2016 and is thus up-to-date and well-involved in a broad range of YOPP-related activities. The former Director Helge Goessling, who has taken over new responsibilities as research group leader at the Alfred Wegener Institute, will continue to support the International Coordination Office (ICO) and to contribute research aimed towards enhanced polar prediction. Paolo Ruti, chief of the World Weather Research Programme, the PPP Steering Group and the ICO thank Helge Goessling for his diligent efforts and committed support to plan, implement and internationally promote the Year of Polar Prediction.
28 November 2018: APPLICATE Scientists Involved in New Book on Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction
(by François Massonnet) Scientists of the YOPP-endorsed project APPLICATE contribute a chapter on "The Role of Sea Ice in Sub-seasonal Predictability” in the newly published S2S book edited by Andrew Robertson and Frederic Vitart.
Predicting weather and climate fluctuations at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales is of high relevance for society, in the current context of rapid climate changes. Rapid progress in this emerging area of research has been possible thanks to an improved understanding of physical processes underpinning predictability, the sustained development of prediction systems and observational networks, as well as the advent of high-performance computing. In that sense, the APPLICATE project endorsed by the Year of Polar Prediction is a prominent example of how the scientific community addresses the S2S prediction challenge.
The scientific literature on S2S prediction has flourished in recent years, and it appears difficult to have a broad and synthetic view on the current state of knowledge. In addition, S2S prediction is a multi-faceted research area using concepts from mathematics and statistics (data assimilation, bias correction, forecast verification, ensemble forecasting), physics (atmospheric dynamics, predictability mechanisms, teleconnections), computational sciences and even social sciences, when it comes to communicating climate information in meaningful ways. To embrace and synthesize all this knowledge, the book “Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction” has recently been published. As an accessible yet rigorous synthesis of what is known on S2S prediction, this book edited by Andrew Robertson and Frederic Vitart will quickly become a reference for students, teachers and researchers all alike.
Review by APPLICATE Scientists
The five APPLICATE scientists Matthieu Chevallier, François Massonnet, Helge Goessling, Virginie Guemas, and Thomas Jung were solicited to contribute a chapter on “The Role of Sea Ice in Sub-seasonal Predictability”. In this article, the main sources of Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice predictability, the current sea-ice forecasting capabilities and their limits are reviewed by the authors. Evidence is presented that sea ice can also be seen as a source of S2S predictability for the polar and extra-polar atmosphere. The chapter highlights the central role that sea ice is playing on S2S predictability in polar regions and beyond.
This contribution also is a recognition of the authors’ individual and collective leaderships in the field of polar prediction. To a larger extent, the chapter also underlines that global S2S prediction systems will have to account for the rapidly changing conditions happening at the poles – a notion that has been at the heart of APPLICATE since its inception.
The book “Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction“ is available from here.
26 November 2018: Everyday Life in the Arctic – New Contribution to Polar Prediction Matters
In the new contribution to the Polar Prediction Matters dialogue platform, Tanja Joona, senior researcher at the Arctic Centre of the University of Lapland in Rovaniemi, Finland, provides a personal report on the everyday life in Finnish Lapland.
While the Arctic is often described as a vulnerable, cold and exotic place with stereotypical images of indigenous and non-indigenous communities, it is not such a homogenous area. Tanja Joona’s article provides insights to the daily life in Finnish Lapland which is home to approximately 183,000 people, including indigenous people: the Sámi.
Read more here.
22 November 2018: Call for Applications – MOSAiC School 2019
Applications are now accepted to participate in the MOSAiC School 2019. The school is jointly organized by the project 'Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate' (MOSAiC) and the Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS). The Year of Polar Prediction is one of the partners for the school.
From September 2019 to September 2020, RV Polarstern operated by the Alfred Wegener Institute will drift with the Arctic sea ice from the central Arctic Ocean towards Fram Strait. During one year, about three hundred scientists will be on board the German research icebreaker to investigate processes and the coupling of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, bio-geochemistry, and ecosystem conditions. The MOSAiC ice drift will therefore help to better understand consequences of Arctic warming and related sea-ice loss. As MOSAiC is amongst the many projects that have been endorsed by the international WMO initiative Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), detailed data sets to improve weather and climate forecasts will be obtained during the one-year ice drift.
For the first cruise leg of the MOSAiC expedition, APECS and MOSAiC partners such as YOPP offer the unique opportunity to participate in the MOSAiC School 2019 aboard the Russian icebreaker RV Akademik Fedorov that supports RV Polarstern on her way into the ice. The school will start and finish at the port of Tromsø in Norway, and is envisaged to take place from 15 September to 26 October 2019 (plus/minus a few days depending on logistical or weather conditions). There will be no registration fee for the school participants. However, travel to and from Tromsø, Norway, has to be organized and covered by school participants. In case, additional travel support to cover flights to and from Tromsø should become available, MOSAiC School organizers will contact selected participants. However, travel support cannot be guaranteed at this point.
The MOSAiC School 2019 is open to up to twenty early career researchers, i.e., advanced graduate students and PhD students with none to limited experience with ship-based research. International experts who are part of the MOSAIC expedition will share their knowledge with students, engage in discussions and hands-on experiences in ground-breaking research, and thus help to educate future Arctic researchers. In addition to lectures, the participants will help the MOSAiC teams on site to set up their instruments and experiments.
For more information and how to apply, please visit the MOSAiC School 2019 website. Application deadline is 22 January 2019 13:00 GMT
For any questions, please contact firstname.lastname@example.org
20 November 2018: Year of Polar Prediction Featured by Royal Meteorological Society
On Wednesday, 21 November 2018, the Royal Meteorological Society will discuss advances and challenges to predict key Arctic processes during the Year of Polar Prediction.
"Arctic Prediction in a Changing Climate: Understanding Key Processes and Challenges" is the title of the Royal Meteorological Society meeting that takes place this Wednesday, 21 November, in London. Speakers at the meeting are representing operational forecasting centers and academia involved in the international Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) effort. YOPP has been initiated by the World Meteorological Organization in response to the rapid environmental changes in polar regions and related transformation of human activities demanding improved forecasts of polar weather and sea-ice conditions. During two Special Observing Periods earlier this year, additional atmospheric and sea-ice measurement were obtained from many land stations and research cruises in the Arctic to increase the number of observations both in winter and summer time helping to improve numerical forecast models. New insights provided by several YOPP-related field campaigns and modelling experiments, and advances and challenges associated with the understanding and prediction of key Arctic processes will be discussed at the meeting.
The program and abstracts of the meeting can be found here. See also here for registration to attend the meeting at the Society of Chemical Industry (SCI) in London. The meeting can be publicly followed from 14:00 - 18:00 (UTC) via a Facebook Live stream (see here).
15 November 2018: Antarctic Summer Special Observing Period Starts This Week
This week, the Special Observing Period in the Antarctic starts. For three months, weather services and international scientists will increase the number of atmospheric and sea-ice observations from different Antarctic land stations, during terrestrial field expeditions and aboard research vessels in the Southern Ocean. Goal of the international Year of Polar Prediction is to improve weather and sea-ice forecasts in the polar regions.
When days are getting longer and research stations become busy, the summer is about to start on the Antarctic continent. November is the month when the austral field season begins. This summer, extra atmospheric and sea-ice measurements in addition to the routine observations will be carried out as a contribution to the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP). YOPP has been initiated by the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). In response to the rapid climate changes in polar regions and related transformation of human activities, the project aims to improve environmental safety by improving forecasts in the Arctic and Antarctic. Earlier this year, two YOPP Special Observing Periods already took place in the Arctic.
More than 2,000 extra radiosondes expected
Expected are more than 2,000 extra radiosondes released from numerous meteorological stations from 16 November 2018 to 15 February 2019. In addition to atmospheric observations, YOPP-endorsed field campaigns and expeditions as well as autonomous instruments will feed their real-time or near-real time data into the Global Telecommunications System of WMO. The additional data generated during the Special Observing Period in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH SOP) will be used for numerical experimentation and internationally coordinated verification activities as well as for forecast evaluation and observational impact studies. Extra measurements help to identify ways to improve the prediction systems. Based on more accurate and reliable forecasts of weather and sea-ice conditions, recommendations for the future Southern Hemisphere Polar Observing Systems can be provided.
The Antarctic Special Observing Period marks another milestone for the Year of Polar Prediction. Preparations for the YOPP-SH SOP have been ongoing since the YOPP Summit in Geneva in 2015. Here, the YOPP-SH committee formed. Since then, the committee led by David Bromwich from the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center at the Ohio State University has been meeting every year to report on national commitments and plans for the Antarctic Special Observing Period.
Antarctic YOPP Supersites
In particular, Antarctic YOPP Supersites such as the French site Dumont D’Urville, the German Neumayer III station, the Korean station King Sejong or the British Halley and Rothera stations will launch extra weather balloons (for exact locations of YOPP Supersites see the YOPP Observations Layer). The increased radiosonde activity from meteorological stations and cruise expeditions can be followed on the ECMWF observation monitoring webpages (see here; chose different observing systems and regions). Data obtained by surface buoys in the Southern Ocean is also sent to the GTS; additional buoy deployments will increase the network once the research icebreakers start heading into the Antarctic waters for the summer.
As during the first two SOPs in the Arctic earlier this year (see here for an overview), many field campaigns and expeditions endorsed by YOPP provide additional specific observations which will enable a better understanding and hence representation of environmental processes in the Antarctic weather, climate, and sea-ice models. Details on the YOPP-endorsed projects contributing to the Antarctic SOP can be found through the YOPP Explorer and by following on twitter and instagram @polarprediction and hashtags #polarprediction and #YOPPextraobs.
08 November 2018: Blizzards in the Canadian Arctic – New Article for Polar Prediction Matters
In the new contribution to Polar Prediction Matters, two forecasters from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) report on automated prediction products to help forecasting blizzards in the Canadian Arctic.
In the Canadian Arctic, blizzards regularly occur from October to May. Blizzard conditions are determined from a number of different weather elements so forecasting of these severe snow storms with temperatures below 0°C, wind speed stronger than 40 km/h, and visibility less than 400 meters are still a major challenge for meteorologists. In the new contribution to the Polar Prediction Matters user feedback forum, William Burrows and Curtis Mooney from ECCC introduce different automated products that may help predict blizzard and near-blizzard conditions. These prediction products have been developed over a period of years and are meanwhile often used in operations.
Read the full article here.
06 November 2018: SIPN South Call for Contributions – Antarctic Summer 2018-2019 Sea Ice Prediction Experiment
The Sea Ice Prediction Network South (SIPN South) invites contributions to the second coordinated sea ice prediction experiment in the Southern Ocean.
SIPN South is an international project endorsed by the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP). Its goal is to make an initial assessment of the ability of forecasting systems to predict circumpolar-average, regional-average, and local Antarctic sea ice conditions, with a focus on the summer season. SIPN South is inviting contributors to participate to the second coordinated sea ice prediction experiment in the Southern Ocean, targeting December 2018-February 2019 and aligned with the Year Of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Special Observing Period in the Southern Ocean. Deadline for submission of the forecasts is 1st December 2018.
For more information about SIPN South see here http://acecrc.org.au/sipn-south/
Guidelines for submission are outlined in the call for contributions at www.climate.be/users/fmasson/SIPNSouth_2019_call.pdf
Questions or feedbacks may be directed to François Massonnet
22 October 2018: Second Arctic Science Ministerial Meeting in Berlin
This week, the second Arctic Science Ministerial meeting will take place in Berlin, Germany. As for the first Ministerial in 2016, the Year of Polar Prediction is again listed as one of the collaborative projects related to the Arctic.
Promoting the results of the deliverables agreed on at the first meeting, which took place on 28 September 2016 in the White House, is one of the goals of this 2nd Arctic Science Ministerial on Thursday and Friday this week. Other objectives include increasing capacity to respond to major societal challenges in the Arctic, and encouraging further scientific cooperation among a large number of countries and representatives of indigenous people. The Ministerial meeting is co-hosted by the European Commission, Finland and Germany.
The Year of Polar Prediction has been listed as one of the many deliverables during the first meeting in 2016, and will this year again be highlighted as one of the many ongoing international initiatives and collaborations. On 25 October, latest achievements with regard to the deliverables agreed at the first Arctic Science Ministerial will be showcased at the Arctic Science Conference. The discussion will focus on scientific advances and on the commitment needed in the future. The science conference will be open to a wide range of Arctic stakeholders, policymakers and media. Discussions from the first day will prepare the ground for 26 October when government ministers and delegates will discuss the main scientific issues. The key objectives of the meeting are to release a Joint Statement, issue a report on initiatives taken over the preceding two years and an updated list of deliverables expected to generate results over the next few years.
17 October 2018: Italy Supports Year of Polar Prediction with a Budget of 500,000 EUR
With a total budget of 500,000 EUR, the Italian National Antarctic Research Programme supports the Year of Polar Prediction by providing funds to five Italian projects to carry out research in the fields of atmospheric science, sea-ice and polar ocean dynamics.
The Italian National Antarctic Research Programme (Programma Nazionale di Ricerche in Antartide, in short: PNRA) is an entity of the Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and Research. In spring this year, PNRA published a call for projects which specifically encouraged the Italian science community to contribute to the international WMO effort to improve environmental forecasts in polar regions during the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP). In this call, PNRA emphasized the high relevance of YOPP as a joint effort of academia, operational centers and various stakeholder groups operating in the Arctic and Antarctic to improve the capability of weather and sea ice forecasts in polar regions.
Projects who aimed for PRNA funding were required to receive formal YOPP endorsement prior to their proposal submission. YOPP endorsement is available since the end of 2015 for projects, programmes or initiatives that aim to contribute to improving forecasting skills in polar regions (see more on YOPP endorsement here). To date, about eighty projects have been endorsed by YOPP, more than a third of them carrying out research in Antarctica and the surrounding Southern Ocean. In total, seven projects have been submitted to the PNRA Antarctic call. Of these, five were reviewed successfully by a panel of external peer reviewers who have been nominated by the Polar Prediction Project's Steering Group.
The five successful Italian projects cover a wide range of disciplines and topics including new measurements in the Arctic and Antarctic atmosphere, and observational and modelling studies on sea-ice and polar ocean dynamics. The budget for the funded projects amounts to 500,000 Euro, in addition to costs for personnel and logistics. Start of the new Antarctic projects is envisaged for the austral 2018-2019 summer season.
This year's PNRA call has been the first specifically devoted to YOPP while in a call for project proposals in 2016, two YOPP-endorsed projects were already reviewed eligible for funding. Together with these, the five new Antarctic projects will strongly enrich the Italian contribution to the YOPP initiative with highly relevant new data sets and modeling activities to further help making YOPP a success.
10 October 2018: Call for Abstracts – Special Issue in Polar Geography
Abstracts are now invited to be submitted to a special issue in Polar Geography which will focus on 'Generating Societal Value from Improved Weather, Water and Ice Forecasts in the Polar Regions'.
Human activities in polar regions involve hunting and travel by Indigenous communities, industrial activities associated with resource extraction in the Arctic or transit of commercial vessels, tourism operations such as cruise ships, pleasure yachts or adventure tourism, but also search and rescue operations, government and research operations, and/or military enforcement.
For a special issue in Polar Geography, the YOPP Task Team on Societal and Economic Research and Applications (in short: PPP-SERA, see more here) invites abstract submissions for manuscripts that aim to explore how weather, water, ice and climate information is currently used by and produced for various polar activities and operations. Results and perspectives on the use and improvement of polar weather and environmental prediction services will be collected in Polar Geography in an effort to translate scientific and technological advances into societal value.
Abstract submission is due on 1 November 2018, full manuscripts are requested by 1 February 2019. The Call for Papers can be downloaded from here.
25 September 2018: PolarPredictNews #08
New issue of PolarPredictNews is now available for download.
The #ArcticOcean2018 expedition and the YOPP-endorsed ACAS campaign came to a successful end few days ago when the Swedish research icebreaker Oden reached port of Longyearbyen after 50 days at sea. In the newest issue of PolarPredictNews, read more about the Oden expedition and what else has happened during the Arctic summer Special Observing Period, or SOP. While the SOP is just about to end, impact of extra observations can be viewed from the ECMWF website. Also, learn more about three new modelling datasets provided to the polar prediction community, look into newest publications relevant to YOPP, and read about an exciting citizen-science project that took place this summer in the central Arctic Ocean.
Download PolarPredictNews #08
19 September 2018: YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere – A Special Observing Period during Austral Summer
The YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere Special Observing Period (YOPP-SH SOP) is scheduled from 16 November 2018 to 15 February 2019. Scientists and representatives of operational weather services, with research and operational/logistical interests in Antarctic meteorology and forecasting, met on 19 July 2018 to discuss related activities.
As in previous years, the third YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) meeting was again held in conjunction with the Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate (WAMC). This time, both meetings were kindly hosted by the Antarctic Meteorological Research Center (AMRC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in Madison, Wisconsin, United States. Following the 13th WAMC from 16 to 18 July 2018, the YOPP-SH#3 meeting was held on Thursday, 19 July 2018.
As an international forum for current results and ideas in Antarctic meteorology, numerical weather prediction, and weather forecasting, annual activities and the status of the observing (e.g., Automatic Weather Stations) and modelling (e.g., Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System) efforts have been addressed during WAMC.
During the YOPP-SH #03 meeting, project investigators and representatives of national agencies operating in Antarctica provided updates on the current status of planning with regard to the Special Observing Period (SOP) in the Southern Hemisphere that is scheduled from 16 November 2018 to 15 February 2019.
Amongst others, operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) support provided by involved national weather centres was discussed. The YOPP Supersites in the Southern Hemisphere will be key locations for joint modelling and verification efforts. An in-depth data set from these key Antarctic stations will enable process-based verification of model-based forecasts against high-frequency observations. In addition to plans for the upcoming austral summer YOPP-SH SOP, the oceanographic community, in particular, suggested another (‘light version’) Special Observing Period is needed during austral winter, perhaps during 2019 or 2020; discussion during the coming months will determine the feasibility and timing of this new effort.
Presentations from the YOPP-SH meeting are available from the YOPP-SH webpage hosted by the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, Columbus, Ohio, USA. See also the WAMC meeting website for more information.
SIPN South on YouTube
A SIPN South presentation is now available via the YOPP YouTube channel. Because François Massonnet, the lead of the Sea Ice Prediction Network South (SIPN South), could not join the third YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere meeting (YOPP-SH#03) in person, he recorded his presentation prior to the meeting. The recording has now been uploaded on the YOPP YouTube channel for everyone to learn more about this initiative to coordinate seasonal predictions of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. Find the recording on SIPN South here.
17 September 2018: Message from the Oden
On 1 August, the Swedish research icebreaker Oden left Longyearbyen port in Svalbard to head towards the North Pole region looking out for a multi-year ice floe to drift with for several weeks. Aboard is the YOPP-endorsed project ‘Arctic Climate Across Scales’ (ACAS) led by the atmospheric scientist Michael Tjernström.
After a 24-hour station in the marginal ice zone, a brief stop at the North Pole on 12 August for taking the obligatory group photo, and two weeks in total of heading into the central Arctic Ocean, on 13 August the Oden team finally located a sea-ice floe that was large enough and sufficiently stable but also had some open water around to facilitate the different science projects. Ice conditions on the cruise track were unexpectedly severe this year so Oden made good use of the helicopter for ice reconnaissance to find the best routes. After intensive work to set up the ice camp, the work on the sea ice gradually started up; after a few days the ice camp consisted of several dedicated observation sites: a tethered sounding site with two tethered balloons, a meteorological flux site with a 20-meter mast with instruments to measure fluxes, and a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) site with a red little tent from which the ROV is launched through a hole in the ice (see upper picture). On the other side of the ice floe an ‘open lead’ site was set up where measurements of the ocean-atmosphere interface have been taken.Many other observing systems, including those of ACAS, had been running on the ship continuously all the way from Svalbard. For example, in collaboration with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), radiosondes are launched every six hours from from the helicopter deck of the Swedish research icebreaker within the ACAS project (see more here) led by the Swedish Stockholm University. These measurements serve as a backbone for much of the atmospheric science conducted on board but also provide input to improve the Arctic weather forecast models and atmospheric reanalysis, in support of the Year of Polar Prediction Arctic Summer Special Observing Period. Data from the weather balloons are sent to the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) operated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in real time in collaboration with the United Kingdom’s National Center for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) Atmospheric facility and the UK Met Office.
13 September 2018: Welcome to the PPP Steering Group
Three new members joined the Polar Prediction Project’s Steering Group (PPP SG) over summer. PPP SG and ICO look forward to further strengthening already existing close collaborations.
Irina Sandu leads the Physical Processes Team in the Research Department of ECWMF. Her research revolves around the representation of atmospheric processes in numerical models, with a particular focus on stable boundary layers, boundary layer cloudsand surface drag impacts on the large-scale circulation. Irina brings a strong modelling and NWP expertise and is involved in the YOPP modelling activities. Irina is also now coordinating polar prediction related activities at ECMWF, particularly in the context of the ongoing Year of Polar Prediction and the H2020 project APPLICATE.
Taneil Uttal is a supervisory meteorologist and leads the Polar Observations and Processes
group in the Physical Science Division of the NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory.
Her research is based on direct observations from the surface of all components of the Arctic
system including surface energy budgets, aerosols and clouds. She was the originator of the
International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA). This consortium of Arctic
Observatories around the Arctic Ocean comprise the YOPP Supersites, and the IASOA consortium is coordinating observing assets and expertise to support the verification goals of YOPP.
Machiel Lamers is Associate Professor in Environmental Policy at the Wageningen University, The Netherlands. He coordinates the Environmental Mobilities theme in his chair group and is interested in the role of environmental information in governing mobility systems and the relation between tourism and nature conservation. Machiel is one of the co-chairs of the PPP Task Team Societal and Economic Research and Applications (PPP-SERA) and is PI of the YOPP-endorsed project SALIENSEAS.
For all members of the PPP Steering Group see here.
6 September 2018: The YOPP super-site Model Inter-comparison Project
An extended set of model output variables has now been defined for the YOPP super-sites modelling efforts. Operational centres are invited to participate in the project ‘The YOPP super-site Model Inter-comparison Project’ (YOPPsiteMIP).
The YOPP super-sites comprise a number of key locations in the Arctic and Antarctic including the super-sites of the International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA; www.iasoa.org), super-sites operated by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC; ecpass.ca), key locations in the Arctic Ocean, selected Antarctic research stations, and key locations covering the so-called “third pole” (Tibetan plateau). At these locations, suites of instruments such as micrometeorological towers, lidars, radars, ceilometers, and radiometers provide detailed measurements, continuously characterizing the vertical column of the atmosphere as well as the surface conditions and energy fluxes. The data from these sites extend far beyond the traditional synoptic surface and upper-air observations, and efforts are underway to create Merged Observatory Data Files with variables from different observing systems formatted to be consistent with model output during the YOPP Special Observing Periods.
For these key sites at the poles, operational centres have kindly offered to provide numerical weather prediction (NWP) model output during YOPP. This unique data set enables in-depth process-based verification of model-based forecasts against high-frequency observations. The target processes include representation of hydrometeors and cloud micro- and macro-physics, radiation, turbulence and energy budgets, and the representation of energy and momentum fluxes. The process-diagnostic aim is to identify strengths and weaknesses of current prediction systems, with the final goal of improving the reliability for weather and environmental predictions in polar regions (and beyond).
The YOPP Task Teams (TT) on Modelling and Verification have worked closely together to finalize a guidance document for the modelling efforts at YOPP super-sites. The YOPPsiteMIP document can be downloaded from the PPP Modelling TT website. This document lists the different YOPP super-site locations and site-specific variables to be produced by the different models. The standardization of the YOPPsiteMIP model output enable a direct comparison of the model output from the participating forecasting centres.
Modelling centers are invited to join this project called ‘The YOPP super-site Model Inter-comparison Project’ or in brief YOPPsiteMIP. For any questions, please contact Gunilla Svensson (Modelling) email@example.com and Barbara Casati (Verification) firstname.lastname@example.org
21 August 2018: Extra radiosonde launches from Korean research icebreaker ARAON
Four radiosondes are launched daily over the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas from the Korean research icebreaker ARAON during the Arctic Summer Special Observing Period.
The Korean icebreaking research vessel ARAON left the Alaskan Port of Nome on 4 August in order to set sail to the Western Arctic Ocean during the Arctic Summer Special Observing Period. The Arctic research mission to the Chuckchi and Est Siberian Seas in two legs (with a 3-day break from 26 to 29 August at Barrow, Alaska) will last until 20 September. Every six hours, meteorological radiosondes are launched from aboard ARAON. In partnership with the Korea Meteorological Administration, radiosonde data are broadcasted into the World Meteorological Global Telecommunications System GTS. Four researchers on board ARAON are taking care of the weather balloon rises during the first expedition leg in the frame of the project ‘Korea Polar Prediction System for Climate Change and Weather Disaster’ (KPOPS) endorsed by the Year of Polar Prediction (see more information here). The 4-year project funded by the Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI) aims to enhance the predictability of Arctic and mid-latitude climate change and weather disasters. Taking meteorological profiles over the data-sparse high-latitude Arctic Ocean will help to improve climate/weather forecast models. KPOPS is also the title of the two models that will be developed in the project, a global climate model (KPOPS-Climate) and a weather forecast model (KPOPS-Weather).
20 August 2018: Polar Prediction School 2018 – Meeting Report Available
The meeting report of the second Polar Prediction School which took place earlier this year in Northern Sweden has now been published in the Eos Earth and Space News.
Education is one of the key activities within the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Year of Polar Prediction initiative. In cooperation with the European Union Horizon 2020–funded project ‘Advanced Prediction in Polar Regions and Beyond’ (APPLICATE) and the Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS), the second Polar Prediction School has been organized at the Abisko Research Station in Northern Sweden from 17 to 27 April 2018. In order to prepare the next generation of polar weather and climate researchers, theory lectures, practical exercises, and fieldwork were combined with a dedicated science communication program. To ensure present limitations in our ability to predict polar weather and climate changes on scales from days to decades are addressed in future science work, topics such as satellite and conventional observation techniques; numerical modelling of the polar atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean, data assimilation and model evaluation were included in the 10-day course. The meeting report is now available in the Eos Earth and Space News.
The first Polar Prediction School took place in 2016. Read more here.
17 August 2018: Atmospheric Measurements from the Chinese icebreaker research vessel Xuelong
Aboard the Chinese icebreaking research vessel Xuelong, meteorological measurements of the Arctic atmosphere are currently carried out supporting the Arctic Summer YOPP Special Observing Period.
Xuelong (which literally means ‘snow dragon’) left Shanghai port on 20 July 2018 to head north for the western Arctic Ocean. After 10 days of transfer, the ninth Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition entered the open waters of Chukchi Sea where the first of a number of radiosondes has been launched on 31 July, as a contribution to the Year of Polar Prediction. Since then, Dongqi Zhang and his team aboard the former Arctic cargo ship that was converted to a research vessel in the mid-1990s are releasing two radiosondes per day at 00 and 12 UTC as part of the YOPP-endorsed project ‘Intensive Atmospheric Soundings during the Chinese Arctic Cruise in 2018’ (IAS, for more information see here). In addition, extra radiosonde launches are planned three times daily at a sea-ice station set up during the expedition near the North Pole.
IAS aims to study the vertical atmospheric profile above the Arctic Ocean by looking at meteorological parameters such as air temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction, or air pressure. The meteorological data obtained by the IAS radiosoundings are transferred to the Information Center of the China Meteorological Administration. Here, data will be converted into WMO BUFR format to send it to the WMO Global Telecommunication System (GTS) and to the YOPP Data Portal. The measured data will therefore be available for the YOPP community to improve predictions of weather and environmental conditions in Arctic regions. Aboard Xuelong, seven expedition members are involved in the IAS project, representing the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences which is part of the China Meteorological Administration, and the National Marine Environment Forecasting Center which belongs to the Ministry of Natural Resources in China.
16 August 2018: New High-Resolution Coupled Arctic Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Forecasts by Environment and Climate Change Canada
As a contribution to the Year of Polar Prediction, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) now provides coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean forecasts at high resolution for the Arctic.
In support of Canada's contribution to the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), the ECCC Meteorological Service Canada (MSC) announces a new set of high-resolution coupled forecasts over the Arctic in real time where atmosphere, ice and ocean are now coupled into one system. This new system called the Canadian Arctic Prediction System (CAPS) has been implemented in experimental mode on 28 June 2018. The two separate components were originally implemented on January 24th, 2018. The atmospheric part provides forecasts covering a large Arctic domain at 3-km resolution, while the ice-ocean model domain covers the northern part of the North Atlantic from 26°N and the whole Arctic Ocean at a resolution of 3 to 8 km. Now, the two components are coupled allowing for improved forecasts of atmosphere, ice and ocean conditions.
As an exceptional data base for users interested in Arctic regions produced for the scientific research goals of YOPP, CAPS data are freely available on the MSC Datamart testing data repository at the address: http://dd.alpha.meteo.gc.ca/yopp
The data will be available online during the entire YOPP Core Phase, namely until mid-2019. As these forecasts are experimental, modifications may occur on relatively short notice, and product availability cannot be guaranteed at the same level as for an official operational system.
For any question, Greg Smith gregory.smith2[at]canada.ca or email@example.com can be contacted.
23 July 2018: Polar Forecasts Against Impacts of Declining Bering Sea Ice on Alaska Coastal Communities – Part 1
In the new contribution to Polar Prediction Matters, authors from the U.S. National Weather Service Alaska describe how coastal communities are affected by changing sea-ice conditions in the Bering Seas.
The daily sea-ice extent in autumn and winter of 2017-2018 has been the lowest in the satellite era record in the Bering Sea. In their Part #1 contribution to Polar Prediction Matters, Eugene Petrescu, Rick Thoman and Becky Heim from the Alaska U.S. National Weather Service report on various impacts of changing sea ice conditions to the regional and community levels. Some of the most significant impacts have been experienced in the Bering Strait region and on St. Lawrence Island including diminished food stocks and increasing pressure on making decisions to remain in place and enhance defenses against the erosion, or to even move to a new location.
Read the full article here.
In Part #2 (to be published in autumn 2018), authors will report on how subsistence hunters use the sea-ice forecast information along with their traditional knowledge.
16 July 2018: U.S. Naval Research Laboratory Contributions to the Year of Polar Prediction
The U. S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) is making various modelling and forecasting contributions to the Year of Polar Prediction.
1) Operational support during second YOPP Arctic Special Observing Period (experimental forecasts)
NRL is providing 27/9/3km nested-domain forecasts, zooming from pan-Arctic into the Fram Strait region. The forecasts are based on the Navy's Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) model for the YOPP Arctic Summer Special Observing Period (SOP2) through September 30, and the forecast range is 48 hours. In addition to numerous atmospheric and surface variables provided on the 27/9/3km grids, very-high-resolution sea-ice output based on a 1km-CICE is provided for the Fram Strait region (see figure upper right). Model forecasts are provided out to 48-hours at 00Z. COAMPS is run to 12 hours at 12Z.
COAMPS was developed by NRL. Its atmospheric components are used operationally by the U.S. Navy for short-term numerical weather prediction for various regions around the world. COAMPS represents an analysis, nowcast and short-term forecasts applicable to any given region of the Earth.
The most recent forecasts and those from the previous 5 days can be obtained here (graphics only): https://cavu.nrlmry.navy.mil/COAMPSOS/YOPP/
Forecasts dating back to 1st of July can be obtained here (graphics only):
Please contact Shouping Wang firstname.lastname@example.org or Dave Hebert email@example.com, or Rick Allard Richard.firstname.lastname@example.org for questions.
COAMPS® is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory.
2) Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Forecast Research Datasets
Sea-ice forecasts for both hemispheres from two NRL systems – the fully coupled Navy Earth System Model (NESM) and the Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) 3.1 – for the period 1 Feb 2018 through 15 Feb 2019 (spanning all YOPP SOPs during the YOPP Core Phase) are made available to the research community. Outputs from the CICE sea-ice model, which is part of both systems, are available for download and use through PANGAEA, the Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science maintained by the German Alfred Wegener Institute.
GOFS 3.1 is a sea ice-ocean prediction system consisting of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model two-way coupled to the Community Ice CodE (CICE) and is forced with the NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM). GOFS 3.1 has ~3.5 km resolution at the North Pole and employs the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) for available in-situ ocean observations and satellite data, including sea-ice concentration from SSMIS and AMSR2 (see figure lower right). The system is run daily and produces 7-day forecasts; near-real-time graphical output from this system can be obtained here: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/POLAR.html
NESM is a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model (NAVGEM/HYCOM/CICE). Operational NAVGEM 1.4 and pre-operational GOFS 3.1 provide the initial conditions. Each week, a time-lagged 4 member ensemble starting on Sat-Sun-Mon-Tue is run out 45 days. These ensemble forecasts are part of NOAA’s Subseasonal eXperiment (SubX: http://cola.gmu.edu/kpegion/subx/index.html).
Both datasets (gradually filled, not in real time) can be obtained here: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.890343
Please contact Joe Metzger email@example.com for questions. For any questions related to PANGAEA, please contact Amelie Driemel Amelie.Driemel@awi.de.
3) Contributions to the YOPP Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment
NRL is contributing (sub-)seasonal forecasts to the YOPP Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx) based on the Navy Earth System Model (NESM) in a setup that is used for NRL’s contributions to the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). In this setup, the fully coupled air/ocean/ice system is used to run time-lagged ensemble simulations from June/July/August out to September following the SIO protocol. Drift forecasts are currently being made for selected buoys of the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP).
An additional contribution to SIDFEx consisting of near-real-time short-term forecasts based on GOFS 3.1, driven with NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) forcing, is currently under consideration.
Details on SIDFEx can be found here: http://www.polarprediction.net/yopp-activities/sidfex/
The NRL (sub)seasonal drift forecasts can be obtained here (GroupID nrl001): https://swiftbrowser.dkrz.de/public/dkrz_0262ea1f00e34439850f3f1d71817205/SIDFEx_processed/
Please contact Joe Metzger firstname.lastname@example.org for questions.
13 July 2018: Increase in High Waves and Winds in Ice-free Arctic Ocean Waters
A study published by Japanese scientists in Scientific Reports earlier this year finds an increase in winds of high ocean waves due to the ongoing retreat in Arctic sea ice.
The larger the ice-free area in the Arctic, the greater is the probability of larger waves causing turbulence and potential flooding and erosion in coastal areas of the Arctic, states Takuji Waseda, the lead author of a study published in scientific reports in March. Co-author and PPP Steering Group member Jun Inoue from the Japanese National Institute of Polar Research points to the implications of such findings as the gradual change in wave heights and frequency over the ice-free Arctic Ocean would not only impact safe navigation for instance by sea-spray icing on a ship but would also affect coastal communities. Skilful surface wind speed forecasts will therefore be needed to reliably predict wave heights and frequency to support shipping and coastal regions to prepare for potential impacts of waves under a new and unusual state of the Arctic Ocean.
An article on the study in EurekAlert! has been published at https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-06/rooi-rit060718.php
Waseda, T., Webb, A., Sato, K., Inoue, J., Kohout, A., Penrose, B., Penrose, S., 2018: Correlated increase of high ocean waves and winds in the ice-free waters of the Arctic Ocean. nature scientific Reports, 8, 4489. doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-22500-9
11 July 2018: The "YOPP Virtual Field Campaign” – ECMWF YOPP Analysis and Forecast Dataset
Provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) with co-funding from the EU Horizon 2020 project APPLICATE, the ECMWF YOPP Analysis and Forecast Data Set is available.
We invite scientists interested in YOPP to download and use the data to understand physical and dynamical processes, investigate predictability in polar regions and explore causes of forecast failures. The ECMWF YOPP Data Set builds on the success of the concept of a “virtual field campaign”, developed in the framework of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC). It provides analysis and coupled forecast data from the operational ECMWF forecasting system. Furthermore, process tendencies from various physical and dynamical processes are available for the first 48-hours of the forecasts. Given that global fields are provided, we expect that scientific studies in non-polar regions will as well benefit from this data set.
Two slides summarizing the ECMWF YOPP Analysis and Forecast Data Set (pdf)
Links to the data:
09 July 2018: Start of the YOPP Arctic Summer Special Observing Period
On 1 July 2018, the Arctic Summer Special Observing Period (or SOP2) during the Year of Polar Prediction commenced.
For three months – from 1 July to 30 September – extensive extra observations will be carried out at numerous land stations in the Arctic, as part of YOPP-endorsed field campaigns and expeditions, and by autonomous instruments. Numerical experimentation and internationally coordinated verification activities will use the additional observations generated during SOP2 for forecast evaluation and observational impact studies. The measurements will enable us to identify ways to improve forecast systems towards more accurate and reliable forecasts of weather and sea-ice conditions in the Arctic, and to provide recommendations for the future Arctic Observing Systems.
Forecast centres will provide model data in unusual detail, in particular for Arctic YOPP Supersites such as the Canadian sites Whitehorse and Iqaluit (for exact locations of YOPP Supersites see the YOPP Observations Layer). The increased radiosonde activity at 6 and 18 UTC has already been noticed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF; see picture to the upper right). An increase in buoy data that is sent to the WMO Global Telecommunication System (GTS) was already perceived since the beginning of June (see picture to the lower right) as many of the buoys have been deployed in advance to the start of SOP2.
Extra observational data which feed into the ECMWF system during SOP can be monitored here (chose different observing systems and regions).
As during the first SOP earlier this year (see here for an overview), many field campaigns and expeditions are carried out by YOPP-endorsed projects to provide specific observational data. These will enable better understanding and representation of environmental processes in the Arctic in weather, climate, and sea ice models. Three examples:
- The YOPP-endorsed project Arctic Climate Across Scales (ACAS) will embark on the Swedish research icebreaker Oden on 1 August to build an ice camp north of Svalbard and drift on the multiyear ice floe for about five weeks. During the expedition, they will monitor the ice surface and atmospheric column (see more information about ACAS in the current PolarPredictNews #07 issue).
- As part of the YOPP-endorsed project KPOPS, radiosondes will be launched 4 times daily from 5 August to 17 September over the Chukchi Sea and north of the East Siberian Sea from the Korean research icebreaker Araon. Data will be broadcasted to the GTS whenever the satellite data transmission allows.
- Radiosondes will be launched twice daily (00UTC and 12 UTC), and data will be sent to GTS in real time, during late July to early September from Chinese icebreaker XUELONG during the IAS campaign.
- Extra weather balloons will be launched for YOPP during three cruise legs through the YOPP-endorsed Nansen LEGACY project aboard the Norwegian research vessel RV Kronprins Haakon in the northern Barents Sea.
Details on these and other YOPP-endorsed projects contributing to the current SOP can be found through the YOPP Explorer.
06 July 2018: Where will the Ice be Tomorrow? – Polar Prediction Matters on Predictive Ice Images
In the new contribution to the Polar Prediction Matters dialogue platform, Lasse Rabenstein and Panagiotis Kountouris provide insight into a new sea-ice forecast product – Predictive Ice Images, or in short: PRIIMA.
Drift + Noise Polar Services GmbH (DNPS) is a start-up and spin-off company of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research. In the new contribution to Polar Prediction Matters, the DNPS managing director Lasse Rabenstein and its Head of Remote Sensing Panagiotis Kountouris describe their newly developed sea-ice forecast product: Predictive Ice Images (PRIIMA) may eventually become instrumental for tactical decision-making in and near ice-covered waters. The ESA kick-start project aims at combining high-resolution satellite images with lower-resolution operational sea-ice models. PRIIMA will thus be able to deliver ice forecasts with the resolution of a satellite radar image, as if the satellite recording of tomorrow would be available already today.
Read the new PPM article here.
05 July 2018: PolarPredictNews #07 Now Online
The seventh issue of the YOPP newsletter PolarPredictNews is now available.
In this brand new summer issue, find out about the different channels of communication, not only where you can find further information about YOPP but even place your own announcement to the PPP community. Also, learn about the investments and personnel that are being been made by the many different projects endorsed by the Year of Polar Prediction. PI of the YOPP-endorsed project Arctic Climate Across Scales (ACAS) Michael Tjernström shares his expectations about ACAS measurements that will take place during the upcoming summer's cruise on the Swedish research icebreaker Oden to the North of Svalbard. As well featured is the Sea Ice Prediction Network South initiative (SIPN South) that just released their post-season report on the ability of different models to predict Antarctic sea ice conditions as a test for the Southern Hemisphere Special Observing Period scheduled during the next austral summer season.
Many of you used this spring to meet colleagues at workshops and conferences where YOPP activities were further discussed; read about the YOPP APPLICATE Townhall meeting at EGU in Vienna, Austria, the Polar Prediction Workshop in Montréal, Canada, or the MOSAiC workshop in Potsdam, Germany. Another highlight during spring has been the second Polar Prediction School which took place in April in Northern Sweden.
This and much more to read in PolarPredictNews #07.
04 July 2018: PPP Steering Group Meeting Report Available
The report of the latest PPP Steering Group meeting is now available.
The PPP Steering Group convenes once a year to discuss current developments, activities and plans for the Year of Polar Prediction's successful implementation. From 13-15 March 2018, the group had been invited by the Icelandic Meteorological Office to hold their ninth meeting in Reykjavík, Iceland. Highlights of the current report involve the decision to hold another third Special Observing Period in the Arctic aligned with the MOSAiC drift experiment; agreement on priorities for the YOPP Consolidation Phase that will already start in about a year from now; YOPP data sharing; and coordination of activities at YOPP Supersites. Please find the full report here.
26 June 2018: Advances in Atmospheric Science – Special Issue on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate
A Call for Papers has been announced to invite contributions to a special issue on 'Antarctic Meteorology and Climate: Past, Present and Future' in Advances in Atmospheric Science.
The ongoing effort of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) in the Antarctic provides a stimulus for a focused research effort on Antarctic meteorology and climate, i.e., a Special Observing Period will take place from mid-November 2018 to mid-February 2019, which will have intensified research activities, including enhanced synoptic observations. More comprehensive and precise observations, increased computing power and improving understanding of Antarctic meteorology and climate, suggest that we expect that coupling of the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice in numerical weather prediction will be achieved with sufficient skill as to become operational in coming years.
A special issue in Advances in Atmospheric Science will showcase recent and ongoing research progress in
1) Antarctic meteorology and numerical weather prediction and
2) Climate variability and change in the Antarctic.
The compilation of research papers in this special issue is expected to contribute to a more thorough understanding of issues in Antarctic meteorology and climate in the past, present and future.
Manuscript submission open: March 1, 2019
Manuscript submission deadline: August 31, 2019
Estimated publication time: January 2020
Submission URL: https://mc03.manuscriptcentral.com/aasiap
Please select: “Special issue: Antarctic”
More information can be found in the announcement (pdf).
18 June 2018: YOPP Arctic Science Workshop – Call for Abstracts
Abstract submission is now open for the YOPP Arctic Science Workshop to be held from 14 to 16 January in Finland, Helsinki.
The workshop is jointly organized by the Polar Prediction Project and its International Coordination Office, the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), and the Finnish Meteorological Institute who is hosting the meeting. It will bring together YOPP scientists to discuss first results from the Arctic Special Observing Periods, providing a vivid forum for exchange and networking. We invite studies on coupled atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, and land processes in the context of latest Arctic observations, modelling and prediction efforts including their benefits to society on time scales from hours to seasonal.
Confirmed invited speakers are: Elizabeth C. Hunke, Jim Doyle, Machiel Lamers, John Marshall,
Pierre Rampal, Ian Renfrew, Greg C. Smith, Gunilla Svensson
Abstracts can be submitted until 3 September 2018 following this link.
More information on the workshop can be found at the workshop website. Please direct any questions to the YOPP International Coordination Office email@example.com.
14 June 2018: PPP-SERA Open Session – Meeting Report Available
The report on a PPP-SERA open session held on 18 April 2018 in The Hague, The Netherlands, is now available online.
During their annual meeting, the YOPP Task Team on Societal and Economic Research and Applications (PPP-SERA) had organized an open session to engage with Europeans operating in Arctic waters. The European Polar Board (EPB) had invited PPP-SERA to hold their open session The Hague, The Netherlands, on 18 April 2018. The session entitled "Generating Societal Value from Improved Weather, Water & Ice Forecasts in the Polar Regions“ aimed at sharing insights and recent developments from the Polar Prediction Project and the social science agenda during the Year of Polar Prediction. Invited speakers representing different maritime sectors provided perspectives to the PPP-SERA group and guests on their understanding of the role and societal value of weather, water, ice and climate services in the Arctic. The final meeting report is now available for download.
11 June 2018: SIPN South Post-Season Report
The Sea Ice Prediction South (SIPN South has just released their post-season report analyzing the ability of 13 systems to forecast summer Antarctic sea ice conditions.
The Sea Ice Prediction Network South (SIPN South) is an international project endorsed by the Year of Polar Prediction and a significant project of the YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) effort. SIPN South aims at delivering an initial assessment of seasonal sea ice forecasting capabilities around Antarctica. Their final target is the prediction of sea ice conditions during the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Special Observing Period of austral summer 2018-2019.
As a first major milestone of the project, 160 sea ice forecasts for February 2018 were collected, analyzed and assessed against two observational references. This coordinated assessment is the first of its kind and should enable polar researchers to better understand the drivers of sea ice predictability in the Southern Ocean, but also the origin(s) of systematic forecast errors. With 160 individual forecasts contributed, the polar community has shown great interest in the topic.
The report, discussing February 2018 conditions and how they were predicted, is now available from the SIPN South website:
The forecast data are open to public in order to maximize their use within and outside the polar prediction community.
SIPN South currently prepares for their next milestone which will be the coordination of sea ice forecasts for January-February 2019, that is, during the YOPP Special Observing Period for the Southern Hemisphere, scheduled from 16 November 2018 to 15 February 2019.
08 June 2018: Polar Prediction Workshop 2018
(by Amélie Bouchat)
Held in Montreal (Quebec, Canada) from 7 to 9 May 2018, the 5th Polar Prediction Workshop (PPW) brought together 75 participants from the academic, governmental, non-profit, and industry sectors to discuss research and operational activities related to Arctic sea-ice prediction.
While oral and poster presentations highlighted recent advances in Arctic prediction systems and their evaluation, the workshop also hosted its first end-user panel, providing a tribune for forecast end-users to present valuable feedback to the scientific community about their needs in terms of sea-ice products. Specifically, the need for ice pressure and ice motion information (on a weekly to daily time scale), as well as forecasting of beginning/end of open-water season for specific navigation routes were identified as pressing needs by the end-users.
Another major outcome of the Polar Prediction Workshop 2018 was a consensus forecast statement for the September 2018 sea-ice conditions. Based on a review of observed conditions for winter 2018, breakout groups were tasked with specifying the ice cover conditions in the marginal Arctic seas and drawing the September minimum ice-edge. The resulting consensus forecast agreed fairly well with early model forecast contributions also submitted at the workshop, with medium/high confidence for higher sea-ice cover in the Beaufort Sea and lower sea-ice cover in the Chukchi Sea. Breakout groups also identified higher sea-ice cover along the Eurasian coastline due to lower coastal divergence and positive ice thickness anomalies this spring, but uncertainty in the model forecasts for this region were high.
Supported by the Marine Environmental Observation Prediction and Response (MEOPAR) Network, the Canadian Ice Service, and the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project, results of the Polar Prediction Workshop 2018 activities were used as input for the Forecasting Regional Arctic sea ice from a Month to Season (FRAMS) meeting and the first Pan-Arctic Regional Climate Outlook Forum (PARCOF-1) meeting, both held shortly after PPW.
The workshop presentations, documents, and videos are now available for reference at ppw2018.com
06 June 2018: MOSAiC Workshop – Paving the Way for Exciting Research
(by Helge Goessling)
A 5-days workshop held last week in Potsdam, Germany, brought together close to 200 participants from various countries to advance the science around the MOSAiC Arctic ice drift campaign that is scheduled from September 2019 to September 2020.
The workshop made clear that the vastly challenging logistics and coordination have made major progress, paving the way for exciting research. Large parts of the workshop took place in breakout sessions organised by compartments (e.g., atmosphere, ice, snow, ocean), by cross-cutting science themes (e.g., ice formation, drift, deformation clouds, precipitation), or by other categories that will need enhanced coordination for a successful implementation of MOSAiC (including activities such as modelling, remote sensing, and aircaft campaigns). YOPP featured prominently as an important partner when it comes to
(i) strengthening a pan-Arctic observation component, in particular during the third Arctic YOPP Special Observing Period, scheduled for February/March 2020, through extra radiosonde launches and meteorological buoys;
(ii) providing valuable modelling datasets, such as extra model output of operational forecast systems at the MOSAiC location by copying the concept of „YOPP Supersites“, and the ECMWF YOPP Dataset (confirmation of extension to include MOSAiC pending); and
(iii) helping to provide operational support by real-time meteorological forecasts as well as forecasts of the MOSAiC drift trajectory as part of the YOPP Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx).
A detailed workshop report will be made available through the MOSAiC website.
29 May 2018: YOPP Coordination Office Welcomes New WMO Consultant Jeff Wilson
Jeff Wilson joins the International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction as new WMO Consultant to support PPP and YOPP activities.
Prior to holding his position as Director of the WMO Education and Training Office for nearly nine years until 2016, Jeff Wilson worked as an educator, trainer and Principal of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Training Centre for more than 27 years. In addition to his extensive experience in education and training, he worked as a forecaster with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for five years including three summer seasons providing forecasting support for land, sea and air operations in Antarctica. Jeff Wilson started his career as a glaciologist with the Australian Antarctic Division analysing Antarctic ice cores for evidence of climate change and was awarded a Polar Medal for his work in Antarctica in 1977.
Jeff will provide his support to the International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction in particularl in view of the upcoming YOPP Consolidation Phase from mid-2019 to 2022 when the legacy of YOPP data, science and publications will be prepared.
25 May 2018: Looking back at the Polar Prediction School 2018
The second Polar Prediction School 2018 on weather and climate prediction in the polar regions took place from 17 - 27 April 2018 at Abisko Scientific Research Station in Sweden. It has been organized by the EU Horizon 2020-funded APPLICATE project, in cooperation with the World Meteorological Organisation’s Polar Prediction Project (PPP), the Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS) and other partners.
This school, for early career scientists, included a combination of polar weather and climate lectures with practical exercises on modelling and field meteorology as well as soft skill training. Each of these components forms a crucial pillar of the prediction problem as addressed during the Year of Polar Prediction; and the motivation for combining these was to provide participants with a complete overview of the components required to understand and predict polar weather. Amongst others, the young scientists launched radiosondes and hold mini intense observational period. Videos summarizing the work of the students will be made available on the APECS and APPLICATE websites.
The Polar Prediction School 2018 has been attended by 29 early career researchers (focus on advanced graduate students, PhD students, and postdoctoral researchers) from around the world. An international set of 13 instructors was teaching the sessions. As during the first Polar Prediction School in 2016, classes were held at the Abisko Scientific Research Station, in Sweden, where the instructional facilities are conveniently located in an environment well suited to Arctic observations.
17 May 2018: ECMWF Science Blog Features Year of Polar Prediction
The new science blog of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) outlines challenges and priorities to improve forecasting capabilities during the Year of Polar Prediction.
In the new article entitled 'Improving prediction and climate monitoring of polar regions – challenges and priorities', ECMWF colleagues Irina Sandu and Peter Bauer discuss the challenges of forecasting in the polar regions. The authors who both play an active role in the PPP Steering Group highlight the contributions and priorities for ECMWF to help make YOPP a success. Read the ECMWF Science Blog here.
16 May 2018: YOPP Arctic Science Workshop
From January 14-16, 2019, the Arctic Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Science Workshop will take place at the Finnish Meteorological Institute in Helsinki, Finland. It will be jointly organized by the Polar Prediction Project and its International Coordination Office (ICO), the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), and the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI).
The workshop will bring together YOPP scientists to present and discuss the first results from the Arctic Special Observing Periods in winter and summer 2018, providing a vivid forum for exchange, networking, and interaction. Studies of coupled atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, and land processes will be addressed to share feedback on the latest Arctic observations, modelling and prediction efforts including their benefits to society on time scales from hours to seasonal.
See the meeting website inlcuding the first circular here (pdf).
More information on the workshop including session topics will be announced soon. Please direct any questions to the YOPP International Coordination Office firstname.lastname@example.org.
14 May 2018: Looking North – New Polar Prediction Matters Entry on 'Perspectives of European Arctic Users'
Europeans from different shipping sectors provided insights to their daily operations in the Arctic and beyond at the recently held Open Session organized by the societal task team of YOPP.
In the new article for the Polar Prediction Matters feedback platform, the authors Rick Thoman and Machiel Lamers report on the different perspectives presented by Europeans from different shipping sectors operating in Arctic waters. Stakeholders were invited by the authors and their colleagues from the Polar Prediction Project's (PPP) Societal and Economic Research and Applications Task Team to the Open Session that was held on 18 April at the premises of the European Polar Board in The Hague, The Netherlands. How does a family-owned sailing venture make use of the currently available weather and ice information in Greenland waters? What does a ship master with long-year experience in Baltic Sea ice operations share about the reality of ice navigation? And how does modern bridge communication need to be re-organized to ensure safe decision-making? Observations and forecasts are just one piece of the puzzle as personal experience and non-environmental factors are playing additional important roles in polar maritime operations.
See the new PPM contribution here.
09 May 2018: Expert on Environmental Economics joins PPP-SERA team
Environmental economist Riina Haavisto joins the PPP‘s Societal and Economic Research and Applications (PPP-SERA) task team.
During the recent PPP-SERA annual meeting at Wageningen University, The Netherlands, another new face joined the PPP-SERA Task Team. Riina Haavisto has been working as an environmental economist at the Finnish Meteorological Institute, in Helsinki, Finland, since 2013. Her research focuses on projects related to weather and climate risk management as well as to climate change adaptation. Riina will support the PPP-SERA team in particular with her background in user engagement and about the provider-user interface of WWIC (Weather, Water, Ice and Climate) information with regards to e.g., decision-making, risk management and adaptation to climate change from an economic point of view. In addition to this, she is looking into future needs of WWIC services and their value to different sectors in the northern hemisphere.
08 May 2018: Where the Poles Come Together – YOPP Side Event at POLAR2018
A YOPP side event will be held during the POLAR2018 conference in Davos, Switzerland.
The YOPP side event will take place on June 19th, from 12.30 to 2 pm in the Room A Dischma. Amongst others, the YOPP Data Portal, the societal aspects within YOPP, and the YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere will be showcased during the meeting. Attendees are invited to take part in the following panel discussion to share thoughts and ideas essential to the success of the Year of Polar Prediction. Everybody interested in improving forecast skills in the polar regions is very welcome to participate in the meeting. The agenda for the meeting can be downloaded from here.
Where the Poles come together: POLAR2018 is a conference jointly held by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research SCAR and the International Arctic Science Committee IASC. POLAR2018 takes place in Davos, Switzerland, from 15 - 26 June 2018. See more on the POLAR2018 conference website.
07 May 2018: YOPP Research Publications and Acknowledgement
To inform the wider community, authors of YOPP-related papers are invited to send their papers to the International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction (ICO). Acknowledgement of YOPP is highly appreciated in order to help determining the success PPP and YOPP towards the end of the Consolidation Phase.
In preparation of the YOPP Consolidation Phase, the PPP website has been slightly re-structured when it comes to publications. Research publications related to polar prediction topics, and in particular resulting from the various Year of Polar Prediction efforts, are now listed in chronological order under http://www.polarprediction.net/documents/research-publications/
In the next PolarPredictNews newsletter issue (issue #07 is considered to be published in June 2018), a new category on 'Featured Research Publications’ will be opened where five to ten new YOPP-related publications are going to be listed in each of the newsletters.
Therefore, the ICO welcomes any information on new papers that provide contributions to YOPP, optionally including a short summary on the paper, formulated for a general audience, to potentially feature selected publications on the website or in the newsletter to inform the wider community.
In order to help determining the success of PPP and YOPP towards the end of the Consolidation Phase, the ICO would like to ask authors of papers to include the following statement in the acknowledgements part of future articles:
'This is a contribution to the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), a flagship activity of the Polar Prediction Project (PPP), initiated by the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) of the World Meteorological Organsation (WMO).'
Please send references of newly published papers (plus a short summary) to email@example.com
04 May 2018: Winter 2018 Sea Ice Conditions in the Bering Strait – New Summary Available
An overview of winter 2018 sea ice conditions in the Bering Strait has been published by the International Arctic Research Center (IARC).
The amount of sea ice in the Bering Sea this winter was the lowest since written records of the commercial whalers started in 1850. Communities throughout the region were significantly impacted. In collaboration with NOAA (United States National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration), the International Arctic Research Center at the University of Fairbanks, Alaska, recently produced a new summary about these conditions. Bering Strait: an overview of winter 2018 sea ice conditions brings together community observations with scientific background to explain why so little sea ice formed during winter 2018.
The 4-page document is written for a general audience and is part of an effort to increase communications between IARC scientists and Bering Strait communities.
For more information about the summary, please contact Heather McFarland (hrmcfarland[at]alaska.edu).
03 May 2018: New Issue of WMO WWRP e-Newsletter now available
The new edition of the quarterly newsletter issued by the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) is now available online.
As a guest editor, Director of the Meteorological Research Division of Environmental and Climate Change Canada Gilbert Brunet identifies synergies and challenges of 'The Future of Weather-Climate Prediction'. Amongst others, the new April 2018 issue also spotlights the Year of Polar Prediction including a portrait of Thomas Jung, chair of the PPP Steering Group, as featured expert.
See here for the WWRP newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/ce841986c808/april-2018-final-version-newsletter
02 May 2018: YOPP Session at Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society’s Congress
A YOPP session will be held at this year's Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society’s 52nd Congress and Annual Meeting (CMOS) in Halifax, Canada.
The 52nd Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society’s Congress and Annual Meeting (CMOS) takes place from June 10 to 14, 2018 in Halifax, Canada. During the morning and afternoon sessions entitled 'Research and Operational Activities supporting the Year of Polar Prediction', contributions and activities during the Year of Polar Prediction will be displayed and discussed on Wednesday, June 13th. Further information can be found at http://congress.cmos.ca/site/congress_home
Early Bird registration is possible until May 7th under http://congress.cmos.ca/site/registration/information
24 April 2018: PolarPredictNews #06
The spring 2018 issue of the YOPP newsletter PolarPredictNews#06 is now available.
Thanks to the many station staff members from 16 Arctic met stations, more than 1,900 extra weather balloons could be launched during the Arctic Winter Special Observing Period. In the new issue of PolarPredictNews, read about the first eight weeks of enhanced routine operations in polar regions to improve weather and sea ice forecasts; find more information about how Arctic warming drives Arctic summer storms; and learn about new Arctic real-time high-resolution atmosphere, ice and ocean forecasts as a contribution by ECCC to YOPP.
Find this and much more in the PolarPredictNews#06.
Special thanks goes out to all authors who provided fabulous contributions to the new issue. Any questions, ideas for articles or announcements you would like to distribute via our newsletter can be sent to firstname.lastname@example.org.
20 April 2018: Arctic Warming to Increase Summer Storminess
(by Jonathan Day, ECWMF)
In a paper now published in Geophysical Research Letters, British climate scientists Jonny Day and Kevin Hodges find that Arctic warming will increase both the number and intensity of storms in Arctic summer.
The dramatic reduction in Arctic summer sea ice has led to an increase in human activity and hence exposure to extreme events in the Arctic. Unlike the mid-latitude storm tracks, which are most active in winter, the Arctic storm track is most active in summer, exactly during the time when Arctic shipping and tourism are on the rise, leading to the obvious question of how climate change will affect the storms themselves. Unfortunately, climate models perform poorly in representing even the basic features, such as the summer maximum in Arctic cyclone frequency. As a result, climate model projections for how Arctic cyclones will change in the future cannot be considered reliable.
In a recent paper published in Geophysical Research Letters, APPLICATE scientist Jonny Day from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Kevin Hodges from the University of Reading develop an analogue approach to assess the impact of Arctic warming on Arctic storms, using the ECMWF reanalysis, ERA-Interim, which performs well in the Arctic. Reanalyses use a combination of computer model simulations and observations to produce a gridded data set constrained by historical observations.
Heating at Different Rates
Because near-surface air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean and Arctic land areas are heating up at different rates, with the land heating up about twice as fast as the ocean, the authors hypothesize that the increase in coastal temperature gradients will make the Arctic a much more favorable place for future cyclone development. Day and Hodges compare cyclone statistics for years with high temperature contrast between land and at sea against years with low contrast, as an analogue for the effects of climate change. Based on this method, they argue that storms over the Arctic Ocean are likely to become more frequent and more dynamically intense as the Arctic warms, increasing the risk to shipping and other human activities.
Contact: Jonathan Day email@example.com
Day, J. J. & Hodges, K. I. (2018). Growing land-sea temperature contrast and the intensification of Arctic cyclones. Geophysical Research Letters, 45. doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077587
13 April 2018: Statement on Gender Equality for YOPP
As a WMO initiative, PPP/YOPP align with the WMO principles concerning diversity and gender equality matters, i.e. selection of individuals involved with YOPP/PPP shall be without regard to origin, race, creed, political belief, or gender (regardless of gender identification).
During the recent PPP Steering Group meeting in Reykjavík, Iceland, a statement in support of gender balance within PPP/YOPP has been discussed and formulated based on the WMO Gender Action Plan. In addition to the statement, few actions were identified including setting times for teleconferences and meetings to predictable weekday working times, paying attention for gender equality in education activities, and increasing the number of female members in the PPP Steering Group and in YOPP-endorsed activities to a minimum of 30%.
The full PPP/YOPP statement in support of gender balance ist available here. For more information, please also see the WMO Gender Action Plan and the paragraph of the 17th WMO Commission of Atmospheric Sciences session (CAS-17) session regarding gender equality.
For any question, please contact the ICO at firstname.lastname@example.org
10 April 2018: Year of Polar Prediction Arctic Winter Special Observing Period Successfully Concluded
The first of the four Special Observing Periods during the Year of Polar Prediction has been successfully completed on March 31.
Station staff from 16 different meteorological stations in the Arctic launched more than 1,900 additional weather balloons from 1 February to 31 March 2018, amounting to up to four extra radiosonde launches per day. In preparation of the ascent, balloons were filled with hydrogen, and a sonde to measure atmospheric conditions was attached on a rope to the weather balloons. On its rise through the atmosphere, the radiosondes monitored temperature, humidity and winds from which properties such as clouds, turbulence, icing, or wind shear can be detected.
In addition to radiosonde deployments from Arctic stations, YOPP-endorsed field campaigns such as the Iceland-Greenland-Seas Project (see more at their blog website and via the IGP twitter account) and the OASIS-YOPP project at the Thule Air Base station in Greenland launched extra radiosondes to get additional observational data into the WMO Global Telecommunications Systems (GTS). Forecasters at operational weather centres such as the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), or the Norwegian Meteorological Institute used the information from the GTS for carrying out enhanced operational predictions. These operational forecasting centers will also carry out so-called data denial experiments in order to provide gudiance for the development of the Arctic observing system and thus provide much improved predictions of weather and sea ice conditions for the Arctic and beyond.
Three further Special Observing Periods are planned during the Year of Polar Prediction: The next one will start this coming summer in the Arctic running from 1 July to 30 September 2018. The Antarctic Special Observing Period is scheduled for the coming austral field season from 16 November 2018 to 15 February 2019. Another Arctic Winter Special Observing Period will take place from 1 February to 31 March 2020; it will be aligned with the first year-round International central Arctic Drift Expedition MOSAiC.
A photo gallery of radiosonde launches during the Arctic Winter Special Observing Period can be found here.
05 April 2018: Polar Prediction Matters – Engaging Users of Sea Ice Forecasts
A new contribution on 'Engaging Users of Sea Ice Forecasts' has been uploaded to the forecast user dialogue platform Polar Prediction Matters hosted by the German Helmholtz Assoziation's blog website.
In this new article, Lawrence Hislop, Executive Director of the global Climate and Cryosphere project (CliC) of the WMO World Climate Research Programme, describes the outcomes of a workshop that was held during the Arctic Frontiers conference in Tromsø, Norway in January 2018. A cross-section of sea-ice forecasters from Europe and North America along with key forecast user representatives from the private sector had been invited to Tromsø to discuss issues and opportunities of current sea-ice forecasting systems and how to better meet stakeholders’ needs. See here for the new PPM article.
22 March 2018: PPP-SERA Open Session with European Polar Board
On Wednesday, April 18th, noon to 5 pm, the Polar Prediction Project's Societal and Economic Research and Applications subcommittee (PPP-SERA) in cooperation with the European Polar Board (EPB) will organize a PPP-SERA Open Session 'Generating Societal Value from Improved Weather, Water & Ice Forecasts in the Polar Regions' in The Hague, Netherlands.
The Polar Prediction Project's Societal and Economic Research and Applications subcommittee (PPP-SERA) addresses the social-science and economics aspects of the Polar Prediction Project (PPP). The aims of the PPP-SERA Open Session to be held on April 18th, 2018, noon to 5 pm, include sharing developments and insights from the Polar Prediction Project and the social science agenda during the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), to provide perspectives on the role and value of Weather, Water, Ice and Climate (WWIC) services from a range of maritime sectors, and to exchange ideas on the societal value of enhanced WWIC services. The meeting will be hosted by the European Polar Board. Lunch and refreshments are sponsored by the Environmental Policy Group of Wageningen University.
Anyone is welcome to join. Please see agenda with more information on the PPP-SERA Open Session here.
To register, please send an email to Berill Blair (email@example.com).
Any further questions can also be directed to Machiel Lamers (firstname.lastname@example.org)
10 March 2018: Start of MACSSIMIZE aircraft campaign
(by Chawn Harlow, PI of MACSSIMIZE, The Met Office)
The YOPP-endorsed MACSSIMIZE campaign starts today. For 15 days, researchers from the UK and Canada will use the FAAM aircraft to better understand how to implement snow radiation into numerical weather prediction models over Canada.
For the YOPP-endorsed MACSSIMIZE campaign starting today, on 10 March 2018, British and Canadian researchers will be flying out of Fairbanks, Alaska, to study microwave emissivities of snow surfaces over Trail Valley Creek near Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada. MACSSIMIZE focuses on improving the use of satellite data assimilated into operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Data from satellite sounding provide strong constraints on the temperature and humidity profiles within modern NWP models and are the most important measurements needed to determine the flow on the synoptic to global scales. Typically, channels on such sounding instruments are arranged along the wings of an absorption line with channels near the line centre providing information about the stratosphere, and channels further from line centre giving information about atmospheric levels closer to the surface. The channels that penetrate to near the Earth’s surface are sensitive to the surface temperature and emissivity, however, so information about the surface is mixed in with information about the lower atmosphere. The surface information needs thus to be separated from the atmospheric information in order for it to be used effectively. Therefore, during MACSSIMIZE different satellite demonstration instruments installed aboard the British aircraft 'Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements' (FAAM aircraft) will be used to measure emissivities and effective radiating temperatures of snow over Trail Valley Creek. In order to evaluate models that predict surface emissions over snow-covered surfaces, personnel on the ground will be measuring snow properties while FAAM flies overhead measuring the surface emissions. The resultant emissivity models can then be used within NWP to separate information about the lower atmosphere from that pertaining to the surface allowing improvements in the weather forecasts in the polar regions and beyond to the mid-latitudes through teleconnections.
In addition to snow studies, there are two other projects involved with the same above goal to improve NWP forecasts. In the first, Arctic stratus clouds will be investigated to better understand their formation and decay. FAAM will overfly the United States Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facility near Barrow, Alaska, to characterise the boundary layer conditions effecting stratus cloud formation. The second additional project focuses on flow conditions upstream and downstream of mountain ranges and their impacts on the regional meteorological conditions. For this project, the aircraft will be flying over and on the north side of the Brooks Range which provides a nearly linear barrier to a southerly flow. Hydraulic jumps, roller vortices, preferential flow through gaps and lee-side drying and heating of air will all be studied.
MACSSIMIZE is a collaboration between the Met Office, Environment and Climate Change Canada, the British and Canadian Universities Wilfrid Laurier University, Université de Sherbrooke, Northumbria University and the Universities of Edinburgh, Leeds and East Anglia, and the United States Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facility. Operational weather forecasting support is provided by the National Weather Service and Met Service Canada.
For any questions, please contact PI of MACSSIMIZE Chawn Harlow email@example.com
09 March 2018: The Nansen Legacy Project Kicks Off
(by Marit Reigstad, PI of the Nansen Legacy project, University of Tromsø, Norway)
From 6-8 March, the YOPP-endorsed project the Nansen Legacy had its kick-off meeting in Tromsø, Norway.
160 participants gathered for the Nansen Legacy project's kick-off meeting in Tromsø. The aim of this new Norwegian interdisciplinary research project covering a time line from 2018 to 2023 is to gain a holistic understanding of the climate and ecosystem responses to the changing Arctic climate, with a focus on the northern Barents Sea where sea ice conditions have changed considerably over the past decade.
Physical and human impacts on the marine ecosystem will be crucial to the Nansen Legacy project to understand how the past and present are key to address predictive capabilities. Improved ice and weather forecasts for the region are thus one of the main project's goals. The Nansen Legacy will therefore utilize the new Norwegian ice-breaking research vessel Kronprins Haakon to carry out annual and seasonal investigations along a climatic gradient from the central Barents Sea into the Arctic Basin from 2018 to 2022. A seasonal study is scheduled for 2019/20, synoptic to the planned MOSAiC drift. Five cruises are envisaged already this year to collect data related to physical and biogeochemical conditions and processes, in addition to ecosystem studies starting in mid-June.
The Nansen Legacy is a collaboration between ten Norwegian universities, governmental and private institutes with complementary expertise in Arctic research. The financial frame is 740 mill NOK (ca. 77 mill EUR), where 50% is provided as in-kind from the participating partners. It is funded by the Research Council of Norway, and the Ministry of Science and Education. Data will be made accessible through SIOS. The project also links with several international initiatives, including the Year of Polar Prediction.
07 March 2018: YOPP Open Session and Ninth PPP Steering Group Meeting at Icelandic Met Office
Next week, the PPP Steering Group will convene for their ninth meeting, this time in beautiful Reykjavík, Iceland. The meeting will follow an Open Session to inform members of the hosting Icelandic Meteorological Office about the current state and ongoing planning activities during the Year of Polar Prediction.
This year, the Icelandic Meteorological Office (or IMO) based in Reykjavik, Iceland, is hosting the PPP Steering Group (PPP-SG) meeting where representatives from research institutes and meteorological services around the world will get together from 13 to 15 March, 2018, in order to further plan and discuss efforts to improve polar predictive skill in the Arctic and Antarctic (see agenda).
Prior to the PPP-SG meeting, on Monday, 12 March, a YOPP Open Session will provide the opportunity to exchange with local colleagues from IMO about the current and planned activities during the Year of Polar Prediction (see agenda). The Icelandic Met Office currently supports the Year of Polar Prediction's ongoing Arctic Winter Special Observing Period (1 February to 31 March 2018) by launching daily extra radiosondes from their stations at Keflavík airport and Egilssta∂ir in the east of Iceland.
20 February 2018: Siri Jodha Khalsa Appointed as New Member of PPP Steering Group
Atmospheric scientist and expert on Earth observing data products Siri Jodha Khalsa from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) has recently joined the Steering Group of the Polar Prediction Project.
Siri Jodha S. Khalsa has spent two decades performing science evaluation and algorithm support for data products from NASA’s Earth observing system. As a physicist, he has worked with optical and microwave satellite remote sensing for observing the cryosphere. He is also an expert in distributed data management and interoperability of geospatial information systems. Siri Jodha is part of the Research Faculty at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, United States, and is on the staff of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As a member of the PPP Steering Group and the YOPP Task Team on Data Management, Siri Jodha brings in the expertise needed for establishing the YOPP Data Portal serving as a collecting point to access extra observations that are carried out during the Year of Polar Prediction.
07 February 2018: 13th WAMC and YOPP-SH#3 Meetings – Registration now open
Registration is now open for this year’s 13th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate (WAMC) and the Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere Meeting #3 (YOPP-SH#3) taking place in Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
The Antarctic Meteorological Research Center (AMRC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison invites you to participate in the 13th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate (WAMC) July 16-18, 2018, which will be held at the University of Wisconsin's Pyle Center on the shore of Lake Mendota in beautiful Madison, Wisconsin, USA. The third Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere meeting (YOPP-SH#3) will be held following WAMC on Thursday, July 19th, 2018.
The WAMC brings together those with research and operational/logistical interests in Antarctic meteorology and forecasting and related disciplines. As in the past, the annual activities and status of the observing (e.g. Automatic Weather Stations) and modeling (Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System) efforts will be addressed, and feedback and results from their user communities are solicited. More broadly, this workshop also is a forum for current results and ideas in Antarctic meteorology, numerical weather prediction, and weather forecasting, from contributors around the world. There will be discussions on the relationships among international efforts and Antarctic forecasting, logistical support, and science. We welcome papers and posters on these topics.
For the third YOPP-SH meeting, project investigators and representatives of national agencies active in Antarctica are invited to provide updates on the current status of planning with regards to the YOPP Special Observing Period (SOP) in the Southern Hemisphere that will be launched during the next austral summer season taking place from 16 November 2018 to 15 February 2019.
Please see the meeting website for more information, including registration and abstract submission:
There is a registration fee of $75 to attend both WAMC and YOPP-SH#3. Attending only YOPP-SH#3 on July 19th will be free of charge.
For accommodation** information please see:
** For travelers who may be staying in Madison longer or staying for YOPP-SH#3, we would suggest staying at The Madison Concourse since our block of rooms is available Saturday-Friday. All other blocks of rooms are available Sunday-Thursday. **
Please direct any questions related to YOPP-SH#3 to Dave Bromwich firstname.lastname@example.org and email@example.com. General questions on the meeting and organization can be sent to local organizers Carol Constanza firstname.lastname@example.org and Matthew Lazzara email@example.com
02 February 2018: New ECCC High-Resolution Arctic Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Forecasts for YOPP
In support of Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) contribution to the Year of Polar Prediction, a new set of real-time high-resolution atmosphere, ice and ocean forecasts over the Arctic are being made available. This includes a new system called the Canadian Arctic Prediction System (CAPS) that has been implemented in experimental mode on January 24th 2018, providing atmospheric forecasts covering a large Arctic domain. The data of this new system, produced over the entire Arctic domain at 3 km resolution for the scientific research goals of YOPP, are also available as of now to users on the MSC Datamart testing data repository at the address: http://dd.alpha.meteo.gc.ca/yopp/model_caps/
Additionally, forecasts from the Regional Ice and Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS), implemented in experimental mode in June 2016 are also being made available. The model domain covers the North Atlantic from 26N and the whole Arctic Ocean at a resolution of 3 to 8 km. The data are interpolated to a grid in north-polar stereographic projection with 5 km resolution. These data are now available on the MSC Datamart testing data repository at the address: http://dd.alpha.meteo.gc.ca/yopp/model_riops/
The data for both CAPS and RIOPS will be available on-line during the entire period of the YOPP core phase, namely until mid-2019, which offers an exceptional data base for users interested in Arctic polar regions. Following the first YOPP Arctic Winter Special Observing Period, these two systems will be coupled together.
Please note that these systems are experimental, such that modifications may occur on relatively short notices, and that product availability can not be guaranteed at the same level as for an official operational system.
For any question, you may contact Greg Smith gregory.smith2[at]canada.ca or firstname.lastname@example.org
01 February 2018: YOPP Arctic Winter Special Observing Period Commences Today
The Arctic Winter Special Observing Period (SOP1) of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) commences today, on February 1st, 2018.
We are excited to witness extensive extra observations to be conducted by the YOPP community at numerous Arctic stations, as a part of YOPP-endorsed field campaigns, and by autonomous instruments. These observations will help us shed light on the value of different kinds of measurements for environmental prediction in the Arctic and beyond. Numerical experimentation with these observations and internationally coordinated verification activities, in particular at YOPP Supersites where forecast centres will provide model data in unusual detail, will help us understand causes for forecast deficiency and provide guidance for the design of the future polar observing system.
Extra Radiosonde Launches
At various stations across the Arctic, extra radiosondes will be launched at increased frequency (up to six times per day). Numerous national weather services, EUMETNET, and academic research institutions are providing the material and human resources for overall more than 1,500 additional radiosonde launches. For an overview of extra radiosoundings during YOPP, including SOP1, please see our kml file for download at http://www.polarprediction.net/yopp-activities/yopp-observations-layer/.
Arctic researchers and collaborators of the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP) have been busy distributing autonomous measurement platforms in the Arctic during the past months. Despite substantial progress, a good coverage of the Arctic Ocean with buoys is a continuous challenge. Thanks to a collaboration between the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI), EUMETNET, WMO, and IABP, the first few of overall about two dozens of buoys to be distributed close to the Eurasian Arctic coast will be deployed from Cape Baranova and by Russian vessels during the coming two months.
YOPP-endorsed Field Campaigns
A number of field campaigns carried out under challenging winter conditions as part of YOPP-endorsed projects will provide specific measurements that will shed light on key polar processes that need better understanding and representation in weather and climate models. For example, the campaigns MACSSIMIZE (pdf) and IGP (pdf), both with a major airborne component, will scrutinize processes governing the interaction between the ocean or land surface and the peculiar polar atmospheric boundary layer. Details on these and other valuable YOPP-endorsed projects contributing to the current SOP can be found through the YOPP Explorer.
During the next two months, we will share SOP1 activities, in particular related to extra observations from stations and in the field, via social media, so you should not miss following us on Twitter @polarprediction. Moreover, you are heartily invited to post a tweet or picture yourself. Make sure to tag @polarprediction and to use #polarprediction and #YOPPextraobs so we can re-tweet you!
After almost six years of planning, we are delighted for the first SOP to finally launch. For any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us via email@example.com.
29 January 2018: Polar Prediction Matters – Sailing Frozen Oceans
The fourth contribution to the dialogue platform Polar Prediction Matters hosted by the Helmholtz blog websites is now online.
What are the prediction requirements of Arctic shippers? In ’Sailing Frozen Oceans', Tero Vauraste, who is President and Chief Executive Officer of the Finnish Polar Maritime Services company Arctia Ltd., reports on the provision of icebreaking services and specialised multipurpose vessel services such as oil spill response and other polar maritime assistance with a fleet of eight icebreakers and three-hundred professionals.
In his article, Vauraste, who currently chairs the Arctic Economic Council (2017–2019), explains why reliable weather and ice reporting services are essential for Arctic shipping operations for long-term, mid-term, and daily planning. See here for the new PPM report. Any comments and discussions following up this and also the former three contributions to PPM are strongly appreciated.
05 January 2018: Subject-Matter Expert for PPP-SERA
PPP‘s Societal and Economic Research and Applications (PPP-SERA) team is building up as the Chilean meteorologist Jorge Carrasco joins the group as a subject-matter expert.
Jorge Carrasco received his PhD in meteorology/atmospheric sciences in 1994 from the Ohio State University in Columbus, OH, USA and added an on-the-job master program on Climate Change and Sustainable Development at the Spanish Vértice Business School in 2017. He had been affiliated with the Chilean Weather Service for 31 years where he started as a forecaster in 1983 and became Deputy Director from 2007 to 2013. Since 2009, Jorge is teaching Antarctic meteorology and climatology at the Universidad de Magallanes in Punta Arenas where he works as an Associate Researcher in the affiliated Antarctic GAIA Research Center since 2014. Jorge has also contributed to the Working Group I (Chapter 4) of the Fourth and Fifth IPCC Reports. With his experience as a forecast provider but at the same time relying on good forecast products when he is out in Antarctica, he will be affiliated with PPP-SERA and consulted regularly to strengthen the PPP-SERA team in the Southern Hemisphere.
14 December 2017: Interview with Thomas Jung
In an interview, published this week on the website of the Alfred Wegener Institute, the chair of the Polar Prediction Project Thomas Jung talks about how the weather and climate at the Earth's poles are changing, how accurately weather and sea-ice conditions can be yet forecasted, and which commercial usage interests might arise in a changing polar environment.
Thomas Jung is Professor for Physics of the Climate System at the University of Bremen and leads the Climate Dynamics Section at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany. As the chair of the Polar Prediction Project Steering Group, Thomas Jung is resposible for planning and coordinating the various activities during the Year of Polar Prediction. The interview can be found here at the AWI website.
See the complete AWI website Focus topic 'Polar Predictions'.
07 December 2017: Impact of a Rapidly Changing Arctic on Eurasian Climate and Weather – Special Issue in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
A special issue of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences presents new research efforts towards a predictive understanding of Arctic climate change and its linkage with Eurasian mid-latitude climate and weather.
In recent decades, Arctic warming has amplified markedly and sea ice has shrunk drastically, leading to an emergent forcing that possibly drives anomalous atmospheric circulation and weather patterns beyond the Arctic. The special issue of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, entitled “Impact of a Rapidly Changing Arctic on Eurasian Climate and Weather”, presents a selection of new research efforts towards a predictive understanding of Arctic climate change and its linkage with Eurasian mid-latitude climate and weather.
“Our understanding of Arctic-midlatitude linkages is still at a pre-consensus stage,” says Thomas Jung, chair of the Year of Polar Prediction initiative and professor of climate dynamics at the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, Germany. He co-authored the issue’s preface as a guest editor. “...it is important, therefore, to bring together the latest research results.”
The special issue focuses on understanding how changes in the Arctic influence the mid-latitude regions of the globe. These areas which include Europe, most of Asia, north Africa, and much of North America sandwich the central tropical region and are capped by the Earth’s poles. While the increased near-surface temperature of the Arctic and the significantly decreased sea ice are undisputed facts, the link between such changes and the extreme climate and weather events in the mid-latitudes is still debated.
Full reference: Zhang, X., T. Jung, M. Wang, Y. Luo, T. Semmler, and A. Orr, 2018: Preface to the special issue: Towards improving understanding and prediction of Arctic change and its linkage with Eurasian mid-latitude weather and climate. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 35(1), 1–4, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7004-7
04 December 2017: +++UPDATE+++ YOPP Online Conference #02 re-scheduled to 14 December 2017
+++Due to time constraints, the second YOPP Online Conference has been re-scheduled. It will now take place on Thursday, December 14, 2017, 4 pm CET. Registration is still possible under this link. Apologies for any inconveniences that may arise from this change of dates.+++
The first YOPP Online Conference has been held on October 17th. Since then, further progress has been made. During the second YOPP Online Conference, Thomas Jung, chair of the WMO Polar Prediction Project Steering Group, will provide an update on latest developments with regards to planning and ongoing activities during the Year of Polar Prediction. Participants are encouraged to bring up their issues and various questions to be discussed during the online session. The YOPP Online Conference is thus a great opportunity to get into touch with YOPP organizers and raise new ideas, thoughts and topics crucial to the success of the Year of Polar Prediction. Everybody interested in improving forecast skills in the polar regions is very welcome to register for the meeting at this link. For any questions, please contact the International Coordination Office at firstname.lastname@example.org.
23 November 2017: SAVE the DATE - 3rd YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere Meeting
Following the 13th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate (16–18 July), the third YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) meeting will be held on 19 July 2018 in Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
During the third YOPP-SH meeting, project investigators and representatives of national agencies active in Antarctica will provide updates on preparations and the status of planning with regards to the Special Observing Period (SOP) in the Southern Hemisphere to be launched in late 2018. Enhanced extra routine observations on land but also ship- and airborne by e.g., radiosondes, buoys, automatic weather stations will significantly contribute to improve predictive skill in the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes. The Special Observing Period in the Antarctica takes place during the next austral summer season from 16 November 2018 to 15 February 2019.The meeting will be hosted by the Antarctic Meteorological Research Center and Automatic Weather Stations Project at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. For more information on the AMC Workshop, please see here. Information on registration for the YOPP-SH workshop will follow soon. Any questions are welcome to be sent to Dave Bromwich email@example.com and the YOPP International Coordination Office firstname.lastname@example.org.
16 November 2017: PANGAEA Data Portal serves as YOPP Data Hub
The World Data Center PANGAEA offers to serve as a data hub for the Year of Polar Prediction Data Portal.
The Data Publisher for Earth and Environmental Science PANGAEA hosted by the German Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research offers to serve as a data hub for the Year of Polar Prediction. YOPP-relevant data can now be submitted to the PANGAEA database where it will be flagged as a 'YOPP' data set. Data archived at PANGAEA will then be harvested from the YOPP Data Portal metadata base.
As the majority of data collected during observational campaigns as well as by modelling and verification efforts will be stored at national data centres and portals, the YOPP data portal provides metadata and links to respective data sets generated during the Year of Polar Prediction. As a legacy for YOPP, this data portal takes into account the various requirements of end-users working with the YOPP data collection. The YOPP Data Portal is hosted by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and can be accessed at http://yopp.met.no/.
Colleagues who would like to upload their YOPP-relevant data to PANGAEA, shall use the link https://pangaea.de/submit/ for data submission: The word ‘YOPP’ needs to be stated in the “label field“ of the data submission form in order to have the data flagged as ‘YOPP’ data set. Please note that PANGAEA does not have any templates for data submission. Since well-established in the weather and climate community, the data should preferably be formatted as NetCDF/CF (including ACDD elements) for reuse purposes by the modelling community allowing to reformat into BUFR if needed.
For any questions related to PANGAEA please contact Amelie Driemel Amelie.Driemel[at]awi.de. General questions and those regarding the YOPP Data Portal shall be directed to Øystein Godøy o.godoy[at]met.no and to the International Coordination Office at office[at]polarprediction.net.
14 November 2017: YOPP Modelling Plan published
The first edition of the 'WWRP Polar Prediction Project YOPP Modelling Plan’ is now published. The document summarizes plans for modelling work to be carried out as part of the Year of Polar Prediction.
Led by WMO consultant and former Met Office scientist Richard Swinbank, the YOPP Modelling Task Team recently finalized the first edition of a YOPP Modelling Plan, which is published as part of the WMO WWRP/PPP series. This plan was developed following discussions at the YOPP modelling planning workshop held in September 2016. It represents a milestone for the YOPP Task Team Modelling as it will help to coordinate different modelling efforts, particularly between YOPP-related research institutes and operational centres (e.g., ECMWF, ECCC and Met Norway). The document outlines plans for a set of reference modelling datasets that will support a range of YOPP scientific investigations, plus plans for modelling experiments that will be carried out during the YOPP Core Phase and Consolidation Phase. All YOPP model experimenters are encouraged to include a standard set of model output diagnostics in order to facilitate comparison between different models, and between model output and observations. The model output standards are set out in the document ‘A Common Set of Model Output for YOPP', which is an online supplement to the YOPP Modelling Plan.
The new YOPP Modelling Plan can be downloaded from here.
Please send any questions to office[at]polarprediction.net.
10 November 2017: YOPP Online Conference #02 on 01 December 2017
SAVE THE DATE AND REGISTER: The second YOPP Online Conference will take place on Friday, December 1, 2017, 5 pm CET.
The first YOPP Online Conference has been held on October 17th. Since then, further progress has been made. During the second YOPP Online Conference, Thomas Jung, chair of the WMO Polar Prediction Project Steering Group, will provide an update on latest developments with regards to planning and ongoing activities during the Year of Polar Prediction. Participants are encouraged to bring up their issues and various questions to be discussed during the online session. The YOPP Online Conference is thus a great opportunity to get into touch with YOPP organizers and raise new ideas, thoughts and topics crucial to the success of the Year of Polar Prediction. Everybody interested in improving forecast skills in the polar regions is very welcome to register for the meeting at this link. For any questions, please contact the International Coordination Office at email@example.com.
31 October 2017: Sea-Ice Information Services in the World – 2017 Update Released
A 2017 update of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) publication WMO-No.574 ‘Sea Ice Information Services in the World’ has now been released.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) publication ‘Sea Ice Information Services in the World’ (WMO-No.574) is intended to provide to mariners and other users information on best practices in sea-ice services available world-wide and by this is formally extending the two WMO publications No.9, Volume D – Information for Shipping and No.558 – Manual on Marine Meteorological Services (WMO-No. 558).
The 2017 update of this comprehensive document has now been released by the Joint World Meteorological Organization/Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (WMO-IOC JCOMM) Expert Team on Sea Ice (ETSI). The document reflects new types of sea ice and icebergs information, forms of collaboration and delivery of the products through August 2017. Areas that have seen substantial progress over the last seven years are the complementation of classical ice services by sea-ice forecasts based on numerical models and Southern Ocean sea ice and icebergs analysis, which are reflected by corresponding additions to the document by numerous ice services. The document greatly facilitates getting an overview on current sea-ice services - just in time for the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) research community which is currently ramping up concerted efforts to improve our capabilities to forecast weather, climate, and sea ice in the polar regions.
The document and future updates can be obtained from 'WMO-IOC JCOMM Sea-Ice Regulatory Documents', subsection 'Sea-Ice Information Services in the World' - http://www.jcomm.info/index.php?option=com_oe&task=viewDocumentRecord&docID=9607. Additional requests on JCOMM sea-ice regulatory material may be also forwarded to ETSI chair Dr Vasily Smolyanitsky (vms(at)aari.aq).
30 October 2017: Operational Support during the Year of Polar Prediction
A number of operational services, in particular related to weather and sea-ice information, offer support for Arctic field campaigns during the Year of Polar Prediction.
A way to assist colleagues while working in the field is to provide and promote opportunities for operational support as delivered by different weather and ice services. The YOPP Coordination Office is keen to facilitate operational support in particular for field campaigns that are going to take place during the Year of Polar Prediction, including those that have been endorsed by YOPP (for more information on YOPP-endorsed activities see the YOPP Explorer).
A number of operational services, in particular related to weather and sea-ice information, offer operational support for YOPP-related campaigns in the Arctic. Possible services include the dissemination of existing services, open data, operational and site-specific forecasts, or aviation briefings. More details can be found here.
Operational services that would like to offer similar products or services are invited to contact the YOPP office at firstname.lastname@example.org. A list of weather and ice services that offer operational support during YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere will be following.
25 October 2017: YOPP Online Conference #01 online available
The first YOPP Online Conference is now available on YouTube.
The first of a series of YOPP Online Conferences took place on October 17th, 2017. Thomas Jung, chair of the PPP Steering Group presented an update of the current status of the Year of Polar Prediction. He flagged ongoing and planned activities and also identified certain gaps that need to be addressed in particular. A subsequent Q & A session allowed participants to express issues and further engage in the planning process.
The recording is available at the YOPP YouTube channel here.
16 October 2017: Navigating Weather, Water, Ice and Climate Information
A high-level document discussing research needs in relation to the use and provision of environmental forecasts for the Arctic and Antarctic regions during the Year of Polar Prediction has just been published.
“Navigating Weather, Water, Ice and Climate Information for Safe Polar Mobilities” is the fifth document published as part of the WMO WWRP/PPP series. The authors of the document – the PPP Societal and Economic Research and Applications (PPP-SERA) Subcommittee – argue that environmental forecasting systems are only of societal benefit if they are being used widely. This entails that they can be accessed by stakeholders in the polar regions, are designed in such a way that users without a scientific or technical background can interact with them and, first and foremost, that they provide the kind of information that the users need to make their field operations safer, more efficient or more productive.
PPP-related research initiatives should „explore how weather, water, ice and climate (WWIC) information is currently being used and produced in the Polar Regions, by whom, and for what reasons“ in order to help better understand decision-making processes when operating in the Arctic and Antarctica. The document is available for download.
12 October 2017: Polar Prediction Matters – Medivac from the East Greenland Coast
In the second article of the new Helmholtz dialogue platform Polar Prediction Matters, two Icelandic Coast Guards explain their various responsibilities within and beyond waters of the Icelandic search and rescue region; they describe what it needs to transport an injured person from the East Greenland coast into hospital, and why polar prediction is so important for joint international search and rescue operations.
The newly established dialogue platform Polar Prediction Matters is hosted by the Helmholtz Association and maintained by the YOPP Coordination Office, the PPP-SERA subcommittee, and the EU-funded Horizon 2020 research consortia APPLICATE and Blue-Action. In our second contribution, two staff members from the Icelandic Coast Guard report from their everyday duties. With the unpredictable weather around Iceland, with the changing sea-ice conditions leading to increasing maritime traffic in the North Atlantic, and with various responsibilities for maritime and aeronautical safety, search and rescue, and environmental protection, the tasks of the Icelandic Coast Guard are unusually complex. Snorre Greil and Soley Kaldal provide detailed insights of their daily work where maintaining situational awareness in the areas of responsibility proves most important. A real-life inspired medivac scenario demonstrates their motivation to support the Year of Polar Prediction's activities to improve polar environmental forecasting products on which operation such as those by the Icelandic Coast Guards depends. See here for the new PPM article.
09 October 2017: YOPP Observations Overview
A layer file to be opened with Google Earth provides an overview on observations taking place during the Year of Polar Prediction.
In order to provide a better overview on observational activities that will take place during the Year of Polar Prediction, the International Coordination Office has developed a layer (kmz file) to be opened e.g., with Google Earth. This file displays information about extra observations such as buoys, automatic weather stations and radiosonde launches during the Special Observing Periods of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP SOPs). One of the main sources for this file has been information received from national weather centres replying to a letter WMO officially sent out early this year to inform Permanent Representatives of WMO Member States about YOPP-SOPs. Observations taking place during field campaigns of YOPP-endorsed projects are also included. This file is available for download here and will continuously be updated in response to any new information. For any comments and updates on observational activities, please contact the ICO at email@example.com.
02 October 2017: YOPP Online Conference #01 on 17 October 2017
During the first YOPP Online Conference, Thomas Jung, chair of the Steering Group of the WMO Polar Prediction Project, will give an update on the Year of Polar Prediction.
The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) has been initiated by the World Meteorological Organization as a response to rapid polar climate change and related transformation of societal and economic activities in the Arctic and Antarctic. From mid 2017 to mid 2019, an international and interdisciplinary network will improve environmental prediction capabilities in order to ensure future safety in polar regions and beyond.
On October 17th, 3 pm GMT, the chair of the Polar Prediction Project Steering Group, Thomas Jung (for more information see here), will provide an update on the planning of the Year of Polar Prediction. He will flag activities that contribute to the planning of the upcoming YOPP Special Observing Periods which will take place in winter (February–March) and summer (July–September) 2018 in the Arctic and during summer 2018/19 (mid November 2018–mid February 2019) in the Antarctic. The presentation will be followed by a discussion session, which will allow participants to engage in the planning.
In order to register for the meeting, please use the following link https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3816362364745971714. For any questions, please contact the International Coordination Office at firstname.lastname@example.org.
18 September 2017: YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere meeting report now available
The second meeting of the YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) planning committee was held in conjunction with the 12th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate and the Southern Ocean Regional Panel (SORP) meeting. The meeting report is now available for download.
The YOPP-SH2 meeting took place on June 28–29, 2017 at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, United States. Modeling efforts such as the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System AMPS, observations both at Antarctic stations and during various field campaigns, as well as involvement of Southern Ocean community were discussed. A joint session together with the Southern Ocean Regional Panel (SORP) took place on Thursday, June 29th. The full report on the meeting can be downloaded here.
15 September 2017: Understanding and Modelling Atmospheric Processes – Call for Abstracts
Abstract submission is now open for the 2nd Pan-GASS meeting "Understanding and Modelling Atmospheric Processes" held from 26 February to 2 March 2018 in Lorne, Victoria, Australia.
The 2nd Pan-GASS meeting sponsored by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science is focused on ‘Understanding and Modelling Atmospheric Processes’ (UMAP) and aims to bring together NWP and climate scientists, observationalists and modellers to discuss the key issues of atmospheric science and to coordinate efforts to improve weather and climate models. The program will include all aspects and methods of model development from deterministic numerics to stochastic forcing; process modelling to parametrization; observational constraints to diagnostic techniques; idealized modelling to operational forecasting and climate predictions.
The meeting will mainly cover the following themes, but can include other topics related to understanding and modelling the atmosphere:
● Surface drag and momentum transport: orographic drag, convective momentum transport
● Processes relevant for polar prediction: stable boundary layers, mixed-phase clouds
● Shallow and deep convection: stochasticity, scale-awareness, organization, grey zone issues
● Clouds and circulation feedbacks: boundary-layer clouds, CFMIP, cirrus
● Microphysics and aerosol-cloud interactions: microphysical observations, parameterization, process studies on aerosol-cloud interactions
● Radiation: circulation coupling; interaction between radiation and clouds
● Land-atmosphere interactions: Role of land processes (snow, soil moisture, soil temperature, and vegetation) in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction
● Physics-dynamics coupling: numerical methods, scale-separation and grey-zone, thermodynamic consistency
● Next generation model development: the challenge of exascale, dynamical core developments, regional refinement, super-parametrization
● High Impact and Extreme Weather: role of convective scale models; ensembles; relevant challenges for model development
On the above topics, we invite you to submit abstracts broadly addressing one of the key ingredients for modelling atmospheric processes:
● Process understanding
● Recent model developments and their impact on weather and climate prediction
● Observational and high resolution constraints for improving models
● Emerging and innovative observing and modelling approaches
Abstract submission is open from 1 September and will close on 31 October 2017. Abstract submission is free.
Click here to register for the conference. Registration costs 165 AUD and will close on 15 November 2017. The fee includes all sessions, coffee breaks and lunches for all conference days, a conference ice-breaker, and the conference dinner.
More information can be found on the website at http://singh.sci.monash.edu/Pan-GASS/index.shtml
14 September 2017: User Engagement Session at Arctic Frontiers 2018
Together with APPLICATE, MOSAiC, Nansen Legacy, N-ICE2015, GreenEdge and BAYSYS projects, YOPP will host a joint topic titled “The New Arctic in a Global Context” (see 2nd Call for Papers) with 8 sessions over 3 days at the Arctic Frontiers Conference 2018. One of the sessions particularly dedicated to the “User Engagement” is chaired by PPP-SERA members Machiel Lamers (Wageningen University, The Netherlands) and Maaike Knol (University of Tromsø, Norway).
In this session, we explore the user-provider interface of weather, water, ice and climate (WWIC) information in the Polar Regions: how is it currently being used and (co)produced, by whom and for what reasons. First, we are interested in exploring WWIC use in various human activities, including hunting and travel by Indigenous communities, industrial activities associated with resource extraction or transit of commercial vessels, tourism operations, search and rescue operations, government and research operations. There is a wide range of WWIC information available to support diverse aspects of polar operations, but how these are accessed or are influencing various decision-making and operational practices is largely unknown. Second, we are interested in exploring ways in which WWIC services can become more salient, or tailored towards decision practices of different users, in terms of content, format and interface. In an effort to better understand these issues, we seek submissions for this session from researchers, decision-makers, community members, operators, and others who regularly access and use WWIC to make decisions polar operations.
Deadline for abstract submission is September 19th. See here for registration. For any questions, Machiel Lamers (email@example.com) and Maaike (firstname.lastname@example.org) can be contacted.
02 September 2017: POLAR2018 Call for Abstracts
The Call for Abstracts for the POLAR2018 joint SCAR/IASC conference is now open. Together with colleagues, the Year of Polar Prediction will host a session on "High-Latitude Boundary Layers and Model Evaluation".
POLAR2018 will be held from 15 to 26 June 2018 in Davos, Switzerland. The Scientific Committee invites the submission of abstracts to be considered for oral or poster presentations. The session program provides guidance on the thematic areas covered at POLAR2018. The deadline for the submission of abstracts is 1 November 2017. Authors wishing to submit an abstract are required to pay a submission fee of CHF 30 for each abstract. You can submit as many abstracts as you like, but only two with a preference for oral presentation. Early career and other authors who wish to apply for a submission fee waiver grant can follow this link.
The session AC-3 "High-Latitude Boundary Layers and Model Evaluation” (see announcement with details) is co-convened by PPP Steering Group member Ian Renfrew and Timo Vihma who is PI of YOPP-endorsed projects. It addresses key physical and chemical processes in oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers as well as their representation in models, as relevant for the Year of Polar Prediction.
For more information on POLAR2018 program see here.
01 September 2017: Polar Prediction Matters launched today
What kind of information is needed by the captain of a vessel navigating polar waters? Our knowledge of what really matters at the end of the forecast chain is rather limited. In order to strengthen the dialogue between polar forecast providers and users, the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) together with partners APPLICATE and Blue-Action are launching the Polar Prediction Matters dialogue platform.
Academic researchers and forecasters strive to develop and deliver polar environmental prediction products that can facilitate the decisions of those living and working in polar regions. What kind of information is needed by the captain of a vessel navigating polar waters, or by the pilot of an aircraft operating in Antarctica? Our knowledge of what really matters at the end of the forecast chain is rather limited. One important goal of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is to strengthen the dialogue between polar forecast providers and users, in order to guide research towards significantly improved and applied polar prediction capabilities in a way that is meaningful to the various stakeholder groups involved.
We are delighted to launch Polar Prediction Matters today at https://blogs.helmholtz.de/polarpredictionmatters/ with the specific aim to foster the exchange between information users and experts on polar prediction. The platform is a means to collect and share individual insights by polar environmental forecast users. These user perspectives will be complemented with contributions by “providers”, such as natural scientists working at meteorological and sea-ice services and at universities, but also by social scientists trying to shed light on how forecast information and products are created, delivered, and utilised.
Polar Prediction Matters is launched with two short articles: The first contribution is a welcome statement by Helge Goessling, Director of the YOPP Coordination Office, introducing briefly the idea behind Polar Prediction Matters and what to expect from the format. In the second article, Uwe Pahl, who served as the master of a research icebreaker for almost two decades, provides his view on the role of environmental information in the practical planning and management of an ice passage. We hope these articles find your interest and provoke curiosity about forthcoming contributions.
Polar Prediction Matters is hosted by the Helmholtz Association Blogs and is maintained by the YOPP Coordination Office, the PPP-SERA subcommittee, and the EU-funded Horizon 2020 research consortia APPLICATE and Blue-Action. For any questions related to YOPP and Polar Prediction Matters, please contact email@example.com.
30 August 2017: Two ArcticChange sessions with PPP-SERA involvement
Colleagues from the YOPP sub-committee PPP-SERA will chair two sessions on Arctic navigation safety and shipping impacts at this year's ArcticChange conference. The ArcticChange conference 2017 will be held in Quebec City from December 11-15, 2017. The Call for Abstracts is currently ongoing with a deadline for submissions on September 22, 2017.
Abstract submissions are invited for two topical sessions within the theme of Arctic Navigation, Geopolitics, and Security. Chaired by PPP-SERA co-chair Jackie Dawson (University of Ottawa, Canada) and her colleague Gita Ljubicic (Carleton University, Canada), participants of the session "Access and Use of Weather, Water, Ice and Climate Information (WWIC) for Safe Arctic Navigation" (NAV01) will discuss ways to improve the understanding of WWIC use in various human activities in polar regions. In a second session co-chaired by Jackie Dawson, shipping-related issues will be focused on. Further information on this session entitled "Understanding the Impacts of Arctic Shipping and Maritime Traffic: from Plankton to People" (NAV03) and other topical sessions of the ArcticChange conference can be found here http://www.arcticnetmeetings.ca/ac2017/pages/topical-sessions.php
Abstracts can be submitted until September 22, 2017, directly through the ArcticChange website: http://www.arcticnetmeetings.ca/ac2017/pages/abstracts.php
For further information you may either contact Gita (Gita.Ljubicic@carleton.ca) or Jackie (Jackie.Dawson@uottawa.ca or check the conference webpage at http://www.arcticnetmeetings.ca/ac2017/index.php
18 August 2017: Ice Watch Ship Observation Protocol
In collaboration with the WCRP Climate and Cryosphere Arctic Sea Ice Working Group (CliC-ASIWG), the IceWatch program developed a ship observation protocol with high relevance for the Year of Polar Prediction.
The Ice Watch ship observations initiative is an international, collaborative program to coordinate Arctic-wide visual sea ice observations collected from ships operating in ice-covered seas of the northern hemisphere (https://sites.google.com/a/alaska.edu/ice-watch/). Recently, they developed an associated observation protocol in collaboration with the WCRP Climate and Cryosphere Arctic Sea Ice Working Group (CliC-ASIWG).
This initiative is also of high relevance to the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP). While the value of those observations is high in general, operational services such as Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) are interested in using these observations for the subjective evaluation of models, in particular observations taken during the upcoming Special Observing Periods (SOPs; in the Arctic: 1Feb-31Mar2018 and 1Jul-30Sep2018). Additional Ice Watch observations will thus have very good chances of high visibility and usage.
The template for observations is available for download here.
More information on the IceWatch program can be found here.
The program is coordinated by the Climate and Cryosphere working group (CliC) which is under the World Climate Research Program.
03 August 2017: MOSAiC Implementation Workshop
A MOSAiC Implementation Workshop will be held in November in St. Petersburg, Russia, to push forward the planning of the MOSAiC expedition.
The MOSAiC team invites for participation in the MOSAiC Implementation Workshop to be held from November 13th to 16th at the at the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute in St. Petersburg, Russia. The workshop is an important step forward towards the planning of the MOSAiC expedition aiming to coordinate the scientific work on board of RV Polarstern and the distributed network. Additionally, the development of a modeling strategy will be discussed.
Find more information on the MOSAiC Implementation Workshop (including agenda and visa information) here http://www.mosaic-expedition.org/news.html
Further questions can be directed to Anja Sommerfeld (anja.sommerfeld [at] awi.de), Markus Rex (markus.rex [at] awi.de), or Klaus Dethloff (klaus.dethloff [at] awi.de).
01 August 2017: PPP Steering Group Welcomes & Departures
The PPP Steering Group welcomes three new members: Vasily Smolyanitsky, Bob Grumbine and Jørn Kristiansen recently joined the PPP SG in replacement for Alexander Makshtas, Christopher Fairall, and Trond Iversen. PPP SG and ICO are grateful for their three outgoing members‘ great support of PPP and YOPP and wish to continue the good cooperation with them also beyond their official PPP SG membership.
New to PPP SG are:
Vasily Smolyanitsky is the head of the laboratory of sea ice climate manuals, at the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI), St. Petersburg, Russia. His expertise includes sea-ice and iceberg climatology, sea-ice information systems, and operational services. Vasily Smolyanitsky chairs the WMO/IOC JCOMM Expert Group on Sea Ice (ETSI) and is the national coordinator of the WMO GCW CryoNet and APRCC-network RA-II node currently under implementation.
Robert Grumbine is a polar oceanographer working for NOAA/National Weather Service, Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, Maryland, USA. He works on both observing and modeling of the oceans and sea ice, for both the Arctic and Antarctic, including inland waters such as the Great Lakes. Bob also acts as the US lead for the WMO Data Quality Monitoring System Task Team.
Jørn Kristiansen is Director of the Development Centre for Weather Forecasting at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway). He is involved in the development and operational running of the high-resolution forecast model Arome-Arctic. This includes the optimization of observational data usage in polar areas, improvements in the representation of physics, as well as novel post-processing of the model output. His future work involves the investigation of dynamical and physical processes within a coupled model system. Being in charge of the web portal yr.no, Jørn has an end-to-end responsibility for the operational MET Norway weather forecasts.
We are looking forward to a fruitful and joyful cooperation with the three new members. See here for all members of the PPP Steering Group.
24 July 2017: Institutional YOPP Endorsement Launched
YOPP endorsement is now also available for institutes, organisations or other groups and networks whose activities contribute to the goals of the Year of Polar Prediction.
Since October 2015, more than fifty projects aiming at improving polar prediction skills by various scientific approaches have been endorsed by the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) initiative. We now open the institutional YOPP endorsement and invite research institutes, operational forecasting centers and various other groups and networks whose activities contribute to the succes of YOPP to request endorsement. Institutional endorsement differs from the hitherto available project endorsement by YOPP as it addresses general contributions to improving polar predictive skill rather than individual academic projects or programmes often sponsored through third party funding. With the institutional endorsement we provide the possibility for research consortia such as operational weather forecasting centres, academic institutions, and networks to link with the Year of Polar Prediction.
To submit a request for institutional YOPP endorsement, please go to http://apps3.awi.de/YPP/. Please register at http://apps3.awi.de/YPP/register and log-in to the site. You will be able to choose between institutional or project endorsement to fill out the respective request form. Entering your information requested includes a short summary (max. 250 words) and a detailed description (max. 1000 words) of your institution or project focusing on details on how your institutional or project activity links to YOPP.
After having received the submission, the International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction (ICO) forwards your request to two members of the Polar Prediction Project's Steering Group who review the request with regards to the relevance for YOPP and provide their recommendation to officially endorse the institution or project.
For any question, please contact the ICO at firstname.lastname@example.org. More information can also be found at http://www.polarprediction.net/yopp/yopp-endorsement/.
20 July 2017: Arctic Frontiers 2018 – Joint session
The Call for Papers is now open for the Arctic Frontiers Science 2018 conference. The conference will take place from Tuesday, January 23rd, to Thursday, January 25th 2018 in Tromsø, Norway.
This time, YOPP will organize a joint topic together with the APPLICATE, MOSAiC, Nansen Legacy, N-ICE2015, GreenEdge and BAYSYS projects. The topic on “The New Arctic in the Global Context” will include sessions highlighting the following research aspects:
- Observations – sea-ice changes and decline, snow changes, ocean warming and circulation, atmospheric circulation and weather, ecosystem changes, observing system design
- Modelling – assessment and development of weather and climate models, interdisciplinary model approaches.
- Prediction – from weather forecast to seasonal and subseasonal prediction and climate projections.
- User engagement – bringing together the forecast community, end users of polar prediction products, and communities in the Arctic that might be influenced by weather and environmental changes.
- Linkages to mid-latitudes – how Arctic climate change influences weather and climate across the Northern Hemisphere.
Deadline for abstract submission is September 19th, 2017. For more information, download the Call for Papers and visit the Arctic Frontiers 2018 website.
For questions particularly related to the joint session, please contact any member of the Science Committee
• Marcus Rex (lead), Markus.Rex@awi.de
• Thomas Jung, Thomas.Jung@awi.de
• Sebastian Gerland, Sebastian.Gerland@npolar.no
• Jackie Dawson, Jackie.Dawson@uottawa.ca
• CJ Mundy, email@example.com
or related project officers:
• Luisa Cristini, firstname.lastname@example.org
• Anja Sommerfeld, email@example.com
• Kirstin Werner, firstname.lastname@example.org
12 July 2017: Iceberg broke off the Larsen C ice shelf area at the Antarctic Pensinsula
A massive iceberg has been created today by breaking off the Larsen C ice shelf area. The size of the iceberg is comparable to the area of the state of Delaware, US; or to seven times the area of Berlin - 175 km long and and up to 50 km wide. The breaking-off has been anticipated for some months, when the crack has been expanding continuously.
The Year of Polar Prediction aims at improving the forecasting capabilities in the Antarctic to enhance the safety of travelers and larger-scale weather processes. This includes a better understanding of the nature, movements and changes of icebergs like Larsen C. We will follow the iceberg on his way northwards away from the Antarctic Peninsula. More information on this topic can be found at the AWI website (German only).
11 July 2017: Communicating the Polar Prediction Project
The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) enables Antarctic and Arctic researchers to enhance forecasts in these regions, improving safety and planning for locals, travellers and explorers. The Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany, joins to make the project known and involve interested people and institutions.
The German Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, hosts the International Coordination Office (ICO) for the Polar Prediction Project. The ICO coordinates research foci, Task Teams, meetings and other aspects of the project. On the other hand, the ICO communicates research agendas and results, together with general information on the purpose of the Year of Polar Prediction, to researchers in Germany and around the World, who are interested or already involved in the project. In addition, the public who takes interest in the topic around the developments in the Arctic and Antarctica also finds a hub of information, for example in the project website or on the YouTube channel (in different languages).
The AWI media team has joined the initiative to explain and broadcast the topic of the Year of Polar Prediction to the German (and international) public, by featuring it on the AWI website and in an explanatory video on YouTube, both in German and English language. A press kit was prepared for the international launch of the Year of Polar Prediction in May 2017, including a press release, illustrations, infographics, texts, and much more, suitable for readers and various communicators such as journalists and bloggers.
Besides the AWI, also other partnering research institutes contributed to the outreach of the launch of the Year of Polar Prediction. For questions or ideas, contact Sina Loeschke from the Communications and Media Relations department of the Alfred Wegener Institute or the International Coordination Office.
20 June 2017: YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere meeting at NCAR
In conjunction with the 12th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate (AMC workshop) and the 12th Session of the CLIVAR/CliC/SCAR Southern Ocean Region Panel (SORP), the second YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) meeting will be held in the week from 26 – 30 Jun 2017 at NCAR, Boulder, Colorado.
Objectives of the 2nd YOPP-SH planning meeting that will take place from Wednesday noon, June 28th, to Thursday noon, June 29th, are to elaborate national contributions to the YOPP Special Observing Period (SOP) in the austral summer period scheduled from 16 November 2018 to 15 February 2019. Confirmed and planned observations both at Antarctic stations and during various field campaigns, as well as modeling efforts such as the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System will be discussed during the meeting.
As a second key goal of YOPP-SH, Southern Ocean oceanographic observations during the Antarctic YOPP-SOP, as well as the Southern Ocean data that are to contribute to the YOPP data portal will be defined in a joint session with SORP representatives.
19 June 2017: YOPP Launch Event in Italy
The international Launch Event for the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) took place on 15 Mai 2017. To connect national initiatives with YOPP, the Italian scientific community convened on 19 June at the CNR Headquarter in Rome, just before the YOPP planning meeting on the Southern Hemisphere (SH) took place in Boulder, USA.
The meeting titled "IL CONTRIBUTO ITALIANO ALL' YEAR OF POLAR PREDICTION Project (YOPP): una giornata di presentazione e discussione" aimed at a better coordination within Italy and with regard to the Polar Prediction Project and the International Coordination Office (ICO), i.e. by establishing a more focused, single entry-point communication with the ICO.
The participants of the meeting, more than 40 Italian scientists, agreed on further stimulating Italian contributions. As can be seen in the list of endorsed projects, many Italian partners are already engaged with YOPP and motivated to consider specific activities devoted to YOPP during the special observing periods (SOPs), and discuss how to better secure data and results of these activities, including the use of the GTS infrastructure. The Foreign Ministry and the National Meteo Service are supporting these goals.
14 June 2017: Report on 3rd PPP-SERA Meeting available Online
The 3rd meeting of the PPP Societal and Economic Research and Applications subcommittee (PPP-SERA) was held in Fairbanks Alaska from April 5–9, 2017. The report is now available online.
PPP-SERA members convened for the third time to discuss various issues regarding YOPP planning aspects from a social point of view. During their Alaska meeting, focus was laid on jointly finalizing the document entitled "Navigating Weather, Water, Ice and Climate Information for Safe Polar Mobilities" which sets base for the scope of PPP-SERA work during the Year of Polar Prediction, bringing in a social science perspective with regards to user requirements of polar forecast products. This scoping document is currently in the publication process and will be announced officially via the polarprediction.net website. Further discussion at the annually PPP-SERA meeting included next steps of the subcommittee and research needs regarding the next steps within YOPP.
Download the meeting report here.
13 June 2017: Polar Prediction School 2018 – First Call for Applications
The EU Horizon 2020-funded APPLICATE project, in cooperation with the World Meteorological Organisation’s Polar Prediction Project (PPP) in occasion of the Year of Polar Prediction, the Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS) and other partners are organising the second Polar Prediction School 2018 on weather and climate prediction in the polar regions from 17 - 27 April 2018 at Abisko Scientific Research Station in Sweden.
This school, for early career scientists, will include a combination of polar weather and climate theory lectures with exercises on modelling and field meteorology techniques as well as soft skill training. Each of these components forms a crucial pillar of the prediction problem, and the motivation for combining these is to provide participants with a complete overview of the components required to understand and predict polar weather.
The Polar Prediction School 2018 will be open to 30 early career researchers (focus on advanced graduate students, PhD students, and postdoctoral researchers) from around the world. An international set of instructors will be teaching the sessions. As during the first Polar Prediction School in 2016, classes will be held at the Abisko Scientific Research Station, in Sweden, where the instructional facilities are conveniently located in an environment well suited to Arctic observations.
More information and how to apply can be found on the Polar Prediction School 2018 website. Application deadline is 15 September 2017.
25 May 2017: Report from YOPP Open Session and 8th PPP Steering Group Meeting now online
The report of the YOPP Open Session and the 8th meeting of the PPP Steering Group is now available for download here. The meetings were kindly hosted by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NOAA) in College Park, Maryland, USA from February 27th to March 1st, 2017.
During the YOPP Open Session, which was held in the morning of February 27th 2017 (YOPP Open Session agenda) members of the PPP Steering Group and experts on polar prediction provided an overview about the current level of YOPP planning and encouraged discussion with the US community interested in YOPP. Following the Open Session, the WMO WWRP PPP Steering Group hold its 8th meeting until March 1st (see here for agenda). Presentations of the meeting are available for download.
24 May 2017: Start of two Arctic Amplification (AC)3 campaigns
Two campaigns of the German "Arctic Amplification" – or "(AC)3" – research centre are starting this week. During the airborne ACLOUD campaign (ACLOUD stands for Arctic CLoud Observations Using airborne measurements during polar Day), physical processes in, above, and below Arctic clouds will be investigated in order to estimate the role of Arctic clouds for the amplified climate change in polar regions. Onboard RV Polarstern, scientist will investigate the Physical feedback of Arctic Polar Boundary Layer, Sea ice, Cloud And AerosoL during the ship-based PASCAL campaign.
Coordinated by the University of Leipzig, the German Transregional Collaborative Research Centre (AC)3 also involves scientists from the Universities of Bremen and Cologne, from the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven, and from the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research in Leipzig. Eighty research flight hours for each of the two research aircraft, Polar 5 and 6, operated by AWI, will be performed from May 22 to June 28 during the ACLOUD campaign. Airborne observations to measure properties of cloud and aerosol particles, trace gas concentration, the energy fluxes in the atmospheric column including radiative fluxes as well as fluxes of sensible and turbulent latent heat will be closely coordinated with surface-based observations at AWIPEV station (Ny Ålesund, Svalbard) and with surface based observations onboard RV Polarstern (PASCAL campaign) and from an ice camp around RV Polarstern that will be drifting in the sea ice north of Svalbard during the period of the aircraft campaign.
To follow the campaigns online, see here.
The artist Kerstin Heymach is accompanying the Longyearbyen campaign and will view the Arctic scientific work from a different perspective by producing drawings, pictures and documentation of the field work of scientists. See her blog and facebook page
A book with Kerstin Heymach's artwork will be produced following the campaign. For more information, please contact Annette Rinke (annette.rinke(at)awi.de)
15 May 2017: Launch of the Year of Polar Prediction
On May 15th 2017, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) officially launches the Year of Polar Prediction in Geneva, Switzerland. From mid-2017 to mid-2019, scientists and operational forecasting centers from various different countries will work together to observe, model, and improve forecasts of the Arctic and Antarctic weather and climate systems.
This two-year international effort, which aims to close gaps in polar forecasting capacity, will lead to better forecasts of weather and sea-ice conditions to improve future environmental safety at both poles. Improved forecasts in polar regions are also expected to result in better weather prediction at lower latitudes where most people live. The Year of Polar Prediction has been initiated by WMO as a response to rapid polar climate change and related transformation of societal and economic activities at the poles.
View Polar Prediction Videos on our YOPP YouTube channel.
Find the complete media kit with detailed information on the Year of Polar Prediction here.
15 May 2017: Report on "Verification of Environmental Prediction in Polar Regions: Recommendations for the Year of Polar Prediction"
The report on "Verification of Environmental Prediction in Polar Regions: Recommendations for the Year of Polar Prediction", prepared by B. Casati, T. Haiden, B. Brown, P. Nurmi and J.-F. Lemieux, has been published by the World Meteorological Organization.
The mandate of the WWRP Joint Working Group in Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) is to promote good verification practices and the development of new verification methods, to address the emerging needs of a variety of diverse user communities. As contribution to the PPP, the JWGFVR has prepared a document which outlines specific verification recommendation for YOPP.
The document describes both diagnostic methods for model developers, summary statistics for monitoring and comparing, and user-tailored meaningful verification (e.g. sea-ice edge distance for navigation safety). Challenges (e.g. the large observation uncertainties and sparseness) characterizing polar regions, and new avenues of research are also identified.
To find the report and more information, please visit the website of the YOPP Verification Task Team.
5 May 2017: Workshop on Prospective Airborne Activities in the Arctic
To bring together the Arctic airborne community during the Year of Polar Prediction and beyond, a workshop on "Airborne Activities in the Arctic: Science and Prospects" will be held on 5-6 October 2017 in Leipzig, Germany.
Currently, Arctic climate research is receiving more and more attention. There are numerous exciting and still open questions to be answered in order to understand the causes and consequences of the ongoing drastic changes of the Arctic climate system. As a consequence, a number of large Arctic field projects are being planned in the coming years (e.g., MOSAiC).
Airborne observations are an important part of these intended field measurements in the Arctic. There is thus the right time to bring together the airborne community to discuss coordinated airborne activities in the Arctic planned for the coming years during a workshop on "Airborne Activities in the Arctic: Science and Prospects", which will take place in Leipzig, Germany, on 5-6 October 2017.
The general objectives of the meeting are:
- To summarize the scientific aims and plans for Arctic airborne observations for the years to come, and
- To discuss possibilities to combine and coordinate the projects.
If you are interested to join this meeting, please send a note and comments by the end of May 2017 to Manfred Wendisch (email@example.com) and Andreas Herber (Andreas.Herber@awi.de). The specific workshop agenda and information on the meeting place and available hotels will be distributed in early summer.
25 April 2017: 8th International Workshop on Sea Ice Modelling, Data Assimilation and Verification
A joint workshop on sea ice modelling, data assimilation and verification will be held from 1–3 November 2017 at the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC) in Bergen, Norway.
The workshop jointly organized by the International Ice Charting Working Group (IICWG), the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Polar Prediction Project (PPP), WWRP Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) and GODAE Oceanview (GOV) builds on a series of previously successful workshops by the IICWG Data Assimilation Working Group to advance international capabilities for automated sea ice analyses and prediction on timescales from hours to season. For more information see full announcement.
Leif Toudal Pedersen (eolab.dk, IICWG-DAWG, DTU, Laurent Bertino (NERSC), Gilles Garric (MERCATOR OCEAN, ICE-ARC), Frank Kauker (OASys, AWI, ICE-ARC) and Greg Smith (ECCC, PPP, GOV).
Webpage and registration:
24 March 2017: International sea ice experts meet in Bremerhaven next week
From 27th to 30th March 2017, the 4th Polar Prediction Workshop will be held at the German Maritime Museum (Deutsches Schiffahrtsmuseum, www.dsm.museum) in Bremerhaven, Germany. The Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (WCRP-PCPI), the Polar Prediction Project (WWRP-PPP), the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) are pleased to welcome about 80 international sea-ice experts who will discuss on environmental predictions in the polar regions on subseasonal to interannual timescales, thereby helping to build a "seamless“ polar prediction community.
As in previous years, sea-ice prediction will again play a central role, with one desired outcome being the compilation of recommendations for the 2017 Sea Ice Outlook season. With regards to the Year of Polar Prediction, which will be officially launched in May 2017, the workshop also aims to stimulate discussion about other relevant predictands of the polar weather and climate system.
The workshop will start in the morning of Monday, March 27th with the Alfred Wegener Lecture given by Cecilia Bitz (Atmospheric Science Department, University of Washington).
From Monday noon to Wednesday noon, oral and poster presentation sessions as well as discussion sessions will cover different aspects of polar prediction (see for more information)
The last day of the workshop (Wednesday noon to Thursday noon) is devoted to discussions about the sea ice simulations from the upcoming CMIP6 experiments (SIMIP), with a focus on new observational datasets for model evaluation and analysis plans.
The International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction, based at the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, is hosting the meeting that builds on a series of international workshops held in Boulder, USA (2014), Reading, UK (2015), and Palisades, USA (2016).
Online streaming is available but limited to a certain number of participants. If you like to participate in the workshop remotely, please send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org to request the information needed to connect.
15 March 2017: YOPP Side Meeting at ASSW2017
A Year of Polar Prediction side meeting will take place during the Arctic Science Summit Week held in Prague, Czech Republic from March 31st to April 7th. The meeting is scheduled for Friday, March 31st at 6 pm. Anyone interested in polar prediction is welcome to learn and discuss about the current state of planning of various activities during the Year of Polar Prediction.
The Year of Polar Prediction is a major WMO World Weather Research Programme activity to enable a significant improvement in the environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions, and beyond. It will be officially launched in May this year.
The core period of YOPP (mid-2017 to mid-2019) will entail intensive observation and modelling campaigns in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. This will allow for subsequent forecasting system experiments aimed at optimizing observing systems in the polar regions and providing insight into the impact of better polar observations on forecast skill also in lower latitudes. All observations carried out during the Year of Polar Prediction will be shared through the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) to make them accessible to all WMO member states. Several ways to get involved with the Year of Polar Prediction initiative will be raised during the ASSW side event.
The meeting is scheduled for Friday, March 31, from 6 to 8 pm. A draft agenda can be downloaded here.
For any question please contact email@example.com
14 March 2017: YOPP Open Session at NOAA/NCEP (USA)
A YOPP Open Session was held on February 27th, 2017 at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in College Park, Maryland, USA. The Open Session was followed by the 8th PPP Steering Group meeting.
The YOPP Open Session on February 27th, 2017 provided an overview about the current level of YOPP planning and encouraged discussion in particular with the US community interested in national contributions and activities during the Year of Polar Prediction. Future observational and modelling efforts within the Year of Polar Prediction, in particular during the Arctic and Antarctic Special Observing Periods have been presented during the Open Session. Representatives from various NOAA institutions participating in US polar programs joined the discussions with PPP Steering Group members and invited experts. The program and presentations for the YOPP Open Session are available here.
The Open Session was followed by a two-day PPP Steering Group meeting where various YOPP task teams further co-ordinated planned activities during the Year of Polar Prediction that will be officially launched in May at the WMO headquarters. For the program and presentations of the PPP SG#8 meeting please see here.
For any question please contact firstname.lastname@example.org
25 January 2017: Exchanging Prediction Information in Polar Regions
How prediction information is exchanged between various stakeholders in polar regions is topic of research for the YOPP Task Team 'Societal and Economic Research and Applications' (PPP-SERA). The PPP subcommittee met last year to prepare their contributions to the Year of Polar Prediction. Their meeting report is now published in the January edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS).
During the meeting's discussions, it was realized that users of weather and sea ice forecasts often also act as providers, e.g., when an online weather service receives weather information and adjusts it to their particular website users. As a first step for PPP-SERA, the current state of knowledge on users and providers of polar forecasts and their requirements will be detailed in a scoping document which will provide directions for upcoming research projects. The workshop report has now been published in the January issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (download the paper).
Reference: Thoman Jr., R., J. Dawson, D. Liggett, M. Lamers, E. Stewart, G. Ljubicic, M.Knol, and W. Hoke, 2017: Understanding the Creation and Use of Polar Weather and Climate Information. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 98, 1, ES3-ES5, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0195.1.
23 January 2017: YOPP Open Session at Polar Prediction Steering Group Meeting
A YOPP Open Session will be held on Monday morning, February 27th 2017, at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in College Park, Maryland, USA. The Open Session will be followed by the PPP Steering Group meeting.
The YOPP Open Session, which will be held in the morning of February 27th 2017 (YOPP Open Session agenda) provides an overview about the current level of YOPP planning and encourages discussion with the US community interested in YOPP. The agenda for the 8th meeting of the WMO WWRP PPP Steering Group, held from February 27th to March 1st is available here. For any question please contact email@example.com
12 January 2017: YOPP session at Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society's 51st Congress
Abstract submission is now open for a special session on the Year of Polar Prediction which will be held at the upcoming Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society's 51st Congress and annual meeting. The CMOS conference takes place from June 4-8, 2017, in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The congress theme is Future Earth: Weather, Oceans, Climate.
Abstracts can be submitted electronically to the conference website's system choosing the “Interdisciplinary” theme and “The Year of Polar Prediction” (#1707010) session. The submission deadline is February 15, 2017.
More information about the Congress can be found at http://congress.cmos.ca/.
Any questions on the conference and the YOPP session can be sent to Greg Smith, Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, gregory.smith2[at]canada.ca or to firstname.lastname@example.org
05 January 2017: EGU2017 session on "Polar Climate Predictability and Prediction
A session entitled "Polar Climate Predictability and Prediction” will be held during the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017, which will convene 23-28 April 2017 in Vienna, Austria.
The EGU2017 session "Polar Climate Predictability and Prediction “ (CL3.03/AS1.22/CR1.6/OS1.15) provides the opportunity to present and discuss plans for the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), with its Core Phase commencing mid-2017. In particular welcome are submissions advancing our current understanding of the mechanisms that control polar climate variability on sub-seasonal to multi-decadal timescales and climate change in both hemispheres. The deadline to submit an abstract is 11 January 2017, 13:00 Central European Time. For more information about the session, please go to http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2017/session/22760. For any questions, contact the session convener Nevan Fuckar at email@example.com.
04 January 2017: Polar Prediction Workshop 2017 – Call for Abstracts now open
Registration and abstract submission are now open for the Polar Prediction Workshop 2017 (PPW 2017) and the 2nd Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project Meeting (2nd SIMIP Meeting).
The workshops will be held at Deutsches Schiffahrtsmuseum in Bremerhaven, Germany from 27th to 30th March 2017. Both events are jointly organized by the Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (WCRP-PCPI), the Polar Prediction Project (WWRP-PPP), the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP).
The Polar Prediction Workshop 2017 (March, 27th morning - March, 29th noon) will start with the public Alfred Wegener Lecture entitled „A Decade of Sea Ice Prediction“ given by Cecilia Bitz (Atmospheric Science Department, University of Washington).
The focus of the subsequent Polar Prediction Workshop is on environmental prediction in the polar regions on subseasonal to interannual timescales, thereby helping to build a "seamless“ polar prediction community. The SIMIP workshop following from March, 29th noon to March, 30th noon is devoted to discussions about the sea ice simulations from the upcoming CMIP6 experiments (SIMIP). For more information and the registration see here.
For any questions, please contact the PPP International Coordination Office at firstname.lastname@example.org.
20 December 2016: Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition (ACE) sets sail
Today, the Akademik Tryoshnikov will set sail to circumnavigate the Antarctic continent for three months. Aboard the research vessel are 55 international scientists from 18 different countries to carry out various science projects in the Southern Ocean.
The Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition (ACE) is the first project of the recently launched Swiss Polar Institute (SPI). The Russian research vessel Akademik Tryoshnikov has been chartered for the interdisciplinary expedition where international scientists with various scientific backgrounds such as biology, climatology, or oceanography work in 22 different research projects. ACE leaves Cape Town, South Africa today in the late afternoon.
One of the researchers aboard the vessel is the atmospheric scientist Julia Schmale who is PI of the project ACE-SPACE. With her project over the Southern Ocean that is still considered as "the most pristine aerosol environment on Earth", Julia Schmale aims to find out how the atmosphere was like during pre-industrial times, before any human impact could change it. Her project ACE-SPACE has been endorsed by YOPP as it contributes to the Year of Polar Prediction objections to "enable a significant improvement in environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions". During the three-months austral summer expedition, Julia Schmale will carry out on-board measurements in order to better understand "how emissions from the ocean to the atmosphere influence particles, how these particles form and grow in the air, and what they are chemically composed of" (see more about her project also the expedition's website). ACE-SPACE will thus improve the representation of aerosol-cloud interaction in models in order to better understand linkages between polar regions and lower latitudes.
19 December 2016: PolarPredictNews #02
The second issue of the PolarPredictNews, the PPP newsletter with updates on recent, ongoing and upcoming activities during the Year of Polar Prediction, is now available for download.
Read in the PolarPredictNews #02 about the YOPP Task Teams that have been recently formed in order to advance preparations for the Year of Polar Prediction. Find out how you can get involved with the Year of Polar Prediction and make sure to save the dates of the Special Observing Periods (SOPs) that have just been finalized. The SOPs will be carried out to enhance routine observations for several weeks during the Year of Polar Prediction in the attempt to close the gaps in polar observing systems.
Amongst others, learn more about a recently completed international airborne experimental campaign which involved four research aircraft and 584 additional radiosondes to examine the jet stream and its role over Europe and the North Atlantic, and meet with the leader of the YOPP Task Team on Airborne Platforms, Manfred Wendisch, who coordinates a German Transregional Collaborative Research Centre to quantify the contribution of different atmospheric processes causing Arctic Amplification.
As with this newsletter, we are aiming to build a common platform to exchange information, updates, and developments in polar prediction, we are looking forward to your active contributions sharing your topics relevant to the community. Please send any information including announcements you would like to distribute via our newsletter to email@example.com.
16 December 2016: MOSAiC Workshop at ASSW2017
MOSAiC, the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate, will hold a two-day workshop during the 2017 Arctic Science Summit Week (ASSW2017).
From April 4th to 5th, relevant topics of MOSAiC will be discussed at the Arctic Science Summit Week held from March 31st until April 7th 2017 in Prague, Czech Republic. The first year-round expedition into the central Arctic is anticipated to start in fall 2019. MOSAiC will significantly contribute to an enhanced understanding of the regional and global consequences of Arctic climate change and sea-ice loss as well as enhancements in weather and climate predictions. During the two-day workshop, presentations by MOSAiC teams will complement breakout sessions and a plenum discussion that provides participants with the opportunity to learn and discuss about this key international field campaign.
Contributions in the form of posters are welcome by anyone interested in presenting their plans for MOSAiC. For poster abstract submission, the submission form at the MOSAiC website can be used http://www.mosaic-expedition.org/abstract.html
The deadline for abstract submission is January 15th, 2017.
14 December 2016: YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere planning meeting 2017
From June 28-29, 2017, the second YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere planning meeting will be held at NCAR in Boulder, Colorado, United States.
In conjunction with two other Antarctic-related meetings to be held June 26-30, 2017, the 12th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate and the Southern Ocean Regional Panel (SORP) meeting, the Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere planning meeting will take place from June 28 (noon) to June 29 (noon). Modeling efforts such as the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System, observations both at Antarctic stations and during various field campaigns, as well as the collection of Southern Ocean data to feed into the YOPP data portal will be discussed. Effective participation of the oceanographic community in YOPP will be a key goal of the meeting.
Abstract submission will be open until May 12, 2017. More information can be found on the workshop website as well as on the website on YOPP-SH maintained by the Polar Meteorology Group at the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center.
For any question, please contact the PPP International Coordination Office at firstname.lastname@example.org.
22 November 2016: Article on YOPP and PPP-SERA in Northern Notes autumn/winter issue 2017
In the current Northern Notes published by the International Arctic Social Science Association, the PPP subcommittee Societal and Economic Research Applications (find more on PPP-SERA here) and the ICO published a news article about the transdiciplinary research carried out by PPP-SERA during the Year of Polar Prediction.
The text entitled Understanding user needs to improve weather and environmental forecasts in the polar regions provides an overview on the research fostered by PPP-SERA during the duration of the Year of Polar Prediction from mid-2017 to mid-2019. Their research aims at better finding out how people can be supported in their daily living and working routine in the polar regions by improved weather and sea-ice forecasts. Northern Notes issue 46 can be downloaded here.
21 November 2016: YOPP Special Session at the 9th International Congress on Arctic Social Science (ICASS IX)
The Societal and Economic Research and Applications (SERA) sub-committee of the Polar Prediction Project (PPP) will hold a special session at the upcoming ICASS (International Congress on Arctic Social Science) conference. ICASS IX takes place from June 8 - 12, 2017 in Umeå, Sweden.
The session entitled Exploring the user-producer interface of weather and sea ice information in support of Arctic marine mobilities: defining social and interdisciplinary science contributions to the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) will explore the complexities of actors, information needs, information systems and infrastructures, funding structures, data management approaches, and applications of weather and sea ice prediction services in the polar regions. For more information see on the workshop website http://iassa.org/icass-ix and the session overview.
The deadline for abstract submissions is December 16. Please visit the conference website (http://iassa.org/icass-ix) to submit your abstract. Under the “Themes, Sessions, & Submission” tab, click on "Theme 17 - Research Methodologies”. Click the green “Submit” button, and then select session 17.15 to be included in the YOPP session.
For any questions, please contact Gita (email@example.com) or Machiel (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Dr. Gita Ljubicic (Carleton University), Dr. Machiel Lamers (Wageningen University), Dr. Jackie Dawson (University of Ottawa), Dr. Maaike Knol (University of Tromsø)
17 November 2016: Polar Prediction Workshop 2017 – 2nd Circular
The Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (WCRP-PCPI), the Polar Prediction Project (WWRP-PPP), the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) are pleased to welcome participants to the 4th Polar Prediction Workshop, being held at Deutsches Schiffahrtsmuseum (http://www.dsm.museum/) in Bremerhaven, Germany from 27th to 30th March 2017.
The International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction, based at the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, is hosting the meeting that builds on a series of international workshops held in Boulder, USA (2014), Reading, UK (2015), and Palisades, USA (2016).
As in previous years, the focus will be on environmental prediction in the polar regions on subseasonal to
interannual timescales, thereby helping to build a „seamless“ polar prediction community. Sea ice prediction
will again play a central role, with one desired outcome being the compilation of recommendations for the 2017 Sea Ice Outlook season. With regards to the Year of Polar Prediction, which will be officially launched in May 2017, the workshop also aims to stimulate discussion about other relevant predictands of the polar weather and climate system.
For any questions, contact the International Coordination Office at email@example.com
Organisation Committee: Helge Goessling, Kirstin Werner, Cecilia Bitz, Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth,
Ed Hawkins, John Fyfe, Alexandra Jahn and Dirk Notz
16 November 2016: A data portal for the Year of Polar Prediction
A data portal will be developed in the context of the Year of Polar Prediction. In order to discuss what will be needed to make the YOPP data portal a valuable and long-term source for users of YOPP data sets, data experts from international operational centers and academic institutes convened in Oslo, Norway, from November 10 to 11, 2016.
The YOPP data portal will provide metadata and links to respective data sets generated during the Year of Polar Prediction. As a legacy for YOPP, this data portal will be developed taking into account the various requirements of end-users working with the YOPP data collection. A task team on the YOPP Data Component has been formed during the meeting which was hosted by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. As the majority of data collected during observational campaigns as well as by modelling and verification efforts will be stored at national data centres and portals, the YOPP data portal will be particularly developed in close collaboration with those data centres which provide sufficient interoperability and work with the so-called FAIR Guideline Principles. Following these guidelines the data will be Findable, Accessable, Interoperable, and Re-usable. YOPP-endorsed projects and programmes will play a key role for the envisaged data management activities. More on the YOPP Data Component will be announced in due course here.
08 November 2016: INTERACT Transnational Access Call open
The EU H2020 funded INTERACT (International Network for Terrestrial Research and Monitoring in the Arctic) project has opened a call for research groups to apply for Transnational Access to 43 research stations across the Arctic and northern alpine and forest areas in Europe, Russia and North-America. The sites represent a variety of glacier, mountain, tundra, boreal forest, peatland and freshwater ecosystems, providing opportunities for researchers from natural sciences to human dimension. The Transnational Access includes both free access (either physical or remote) for user groups/users to research facilities and field sites, including support for travel and logistic costs, and free access to information and data in the public domain held at the infrastructures.
The call for applications is open from 4th November to 18th December 2016 for transnational access taking place between March 2017 and April 2018. You can find more information such as the TA call information, stations available in the call, descriptions of stations and their facilities, and registration to the INTERACCESS on-line application system from the INTERACT website www.eu-interact.org.
31 October 2016: 17th Annual Meeting of the International Ice Charting Working Group (IICWG)
The International Ice Charting Working Group (IICWG) convened its 17th annual meeting October 24-28 in Ottawa. Hosted by the Canadian Ice Service, the theme for the meeting was “From Models to Forecast Products for Sea Ice and Icebergs”, nicely fitting the aims of the Year of Polar Prediction. The meeting was attended by numerous users of sea ice information, in particular from the shipping industries, making sure that modellers as well as the operational services align their products with actual user needs. The IICWG is an important player for the Year of Polar Prediction, and the Year of Polar Prediction in turn is a unique opportunity for the IICWG to foster progress with respect to sea ice forecast services. Read the following news release here.
19 October 2016: Advancing prediction capacity in the polar regions – Overview paper on the Polar Prediction Project now published in BAMS
The need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is outlined in the paper "Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales" now published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS).
Anthropogenic climate change in polar regions comes with both new opportunities for the shipping industry but also higher risks for maritime accidents in ice-covered seas. Sufficient environmental prediction systems will be needed in order to ensure a peaceful and environmentally sensitive use of the future polar sea's potentials. In the paper now published in BAMS "possible ways forward in advancing prediction capacity in polar regions and beyond" are outlined. The authors identify certain research priorities that help fostering environmental polar prediction capabilities such as an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. In order to rapidly progress, a coordinated international effort such as the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 will be needed. This period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and educational activities not only involves the international research and operational forecasting community but reaches out to various stakeholder groups to ensure polar forecast products adequately meet various users' needs.
Reference: Jung, T., N. Gordon, P. Bauer, D. Bromwich, M. Chevallier, J. Day, J. Dawson, F. Doblas-Reyes, C. Fairall, H. Goessling, M. Holland, J. Inoue, T. Iversen, S. Klebe, P. Lemke, M. Losch, A. Makshtas, B. Mills, P. Nurmi, D. Perovich, P. Reid, I. Renfrew, G. Smith, G. Svensson, M. Tolstykh, and Q. Yang, 2016: Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00246.1.
18 October 2016: PPP-SERA Meeting Report published in BAMS
The results discussed during the second meeting of the PPP-SERA sub-committee have been summarized for a workshop report in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society which is now published online.
From April 18 to 22, 2016 the PPP sub-committee Societal and Economic Research and Applications convened at the University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand in order to discuss their contributions to the Year of Polar Prediction that will be launched in May next year. Amongst others, the group discussed how prediction information between stakeholders of the Polar Prediction Project is exchanged. It was realized that users of weather and sea ice forecasts can also act as providers such as an online weather service that receives weather information and adjusts it to their particular users. The workshop report is provided here.
Reference: Thoman Jr., R., J. Dawson, D. Liggett, M. Lamers, E. Stewart, G. Ljubicic, M.Knol, and W. Hoke, 2016: Second Polar Prediction Project (PPP) Societal and Economic Research and Applications (SERA) Meeting focused on end user use of weather and climate information. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0195.1, in press.
17 October 2016: MEOPAR Expert Forum on Implementation of the Year of Polar Prediction
In preparation of the MEOPAR YOPP Call for Proposals, during the Expert Forum on Implementation of the Year of Polar Prediction Canadian contributions will be discussed.
The expert forum held on October 17 and 18 in Ottawa, Canada is hosted by the Canadian "Marine Environmental Observation Prediction and Response Network" (MEOPAR). MEOPAR is working together with the Polar Prediction Project (PPP), Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), Polar Knowledge Canada (POLAR) and the Arctic Research Foundation (ARF) to release a Call for Proposals in late 2016 or early 2017 to fund research related to YOPP. More information on the forum and call can be found here.
13 October 2016: Report on YOPP Planning Meetings online available
The meeting report of the YOPP Planning Meetings for Arctic Observations and the YOPP Modelling Component is now available for download.
The preparation for the Year of Polar Prediction moved into a new phase when 75 international experts from operational centers, research institutes, universities, and societal initiatives convened from September 5–9 at ECMWF in Reading, UK in order to discuss national and international efforts providing additional observations in the Arctic and performing numerical experimentation towards a concerted YOPP observation and modelling plan. Resultant from the meeting, task teams will build for various activities during the Year of Polar Prediction such as YOPP Core Modelling Activities, Airborne Platforms, or the YOPP Data Component. For more information see the meeting report here.
08 October 2016: The Abisko Polar Prediction School published online in BAMS
The report on the Abisko Polar Prediction School has just been accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS).
Held from 5th–15th April, 2016 at the Abisko Field Station in northern Sweden, the first Polar Prediction School brought together 29 early career researchers from 16 countries to "meet the growing societal need for young scientists" in the field of polar prediction. By a combination of lectures, field observations, and other learning activities, participants were trained in polar environmental prediction science to enhance understanding of what it needs to ensure safe living and working conditions in polar regions. The paper now published online in BAMS briefly summarizes activities and outcomes of the first of two Year of Polar Prediction summer schools. More on the Abisko school can also be found here.
Reference: Day, J. J., Svensson, G., Brooks, I. M., Bitz, C., Carver, G., Chevallier, M., Goessling, H. F., Hartung, K., Jung, T., Kay, J. E., Kolstad, E. W.., Perovich, D., Screen, J., Siemen, S., Váňa, F.: The Abisko Polar Prediction School, Bull. of the American Meteorological Society, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0119.1, 2016.
07 October 2016: ECMWF Interview with WMO's WWRP Chief Paolo Ruti
In an interview with ECMWF, Paolo Ruti, the Chief of the WMO World Weather Research Division, speaks about the preparation state of the Year of Polar Prediction.
"Designed to bring together people working on observations and on modelling and to make sure that their activities link up well", the Year of Polar Prediction will "help to develop a new observational network to enable better weather predictions in the polar regions". To communicate effectively about the society's relevance of the Year of Polar Prediction initiative may be one of the biggest challenges, he says. The entire interview with Paolo Ruti can be found at the ECMWF website.
06 October 2016: PolarPredictNews #01
The first issue of the PolarPredictNews, a newsletter with updates on recent, ongoing and upcoming activities during the Year of Polar Prediction, is now available for download.
Edited by the International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction, the PolarPredictNews keep you updated with recent, ongoing and upcoming activities during the Year of Polar Prediction. With this newsletter, we are aiming to build a common platform to exchange information, updates, and developments in polar prediction. Therefore, we are looking forward to your active contributions sharing your topics relevant to the community. Please send any information including announcements you would like to distribute via our newsletter to firstname.lastname@example.org.
In this first issue, learn more about a flying laboratory and new colleagues joining the Polar Prediction Steering Group. Read about the preparation of the Year of Polar Prediction in Columbus, Ohio and Reading, UK, and meet with Dave Bromwich chatting about his YOPP-endorsed project in West Antarctica.
02 September 2016: Live Streaming of YOPP Planning Meetings next week in Reading, UK
From September 5-9, 2016, activities on Arctic Observations and the Modelling Component during the upcoming Year of Polar Prediction will be further planned at ECMWF in Reading, UK. A web stream will be available from Monday 12:00 pm (GMT+1) to follow the two meetings online.
In less than a year the Year of Polar Prediction Core Phase will be launched. In order to make further progress in the planning of the various activities during YOPP, the Planning Workshops on Arctic Observations and the YOPP Modelling Component will be held at ECMWF in Reading, UK, from September 5-7 and September 7-9, 2016, respectively. Invitees from operational centers, research institutes, universities, and initiatives from all over the world will plan on observational campaigns in the Arctic as well as various modelling activities such as forecasting experiments, dedicated reanalyses, or data denial experiments. During a Joint Session on Wednesday, September 7, from 9:00 am to 12:00 pm (GMT+1), modellers and observationals will be discussing on how to improve polar forecasting in a joint effort. Live streaming will be available throughout the week, from Monday 12:00 pm (GMT+1) to follow the meetings online. In order to join the meetings remotely, the agendas including the links to the web stream can be found here: Arctic Observations and the YOPP Modelling Component.
26 August 2016: New version of the Year of Polar Prediction Implementation Plan released
A revised version of the Implementation Plan for the Year of Polar Prediction has just been released through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It is available here.
The new Implementation Plan (version 2.0) includes a number of changes that reflect important recent developments, in particular outcomes and decisions made at the YOPP Summit held last year in Geneva. Among the most significant changes are (i) a revised description of how the social component of YOPP will be implemented, (ii) an updated description of the coordination between YOPP and the international Arctic research initiative MOSAiC, (iii) a new section describing the YOPP endorsement process, and (iv) additional information on special and intensive observing periods during the Year of Polar Prediction.
The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is a major international activity that has been initiated by the World Meteorological Organization’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) as a key component of the Polar Prediction Project (PPP). During the Year of Polar Prediction scientists from various Arctic and Antarctic research fields work together with operational forecasting centers and people who rely on weather and sea-ice predictions in their everyday life. The Year of Polar Prediction initiative starts in mid-2017 with the goal to substantially improve environmental forecasts in polar regions.
For further information please visit http://www.polarprediction.net/yopp/ or contact us at email@example.com
17 August 2016: Russian Aircraft Laboratory available for Arctic Environmental Studies
A Russian aircraft laboratory is available for scientific use to carry out meteorological investigations such as cloud physics, atmospheric dynamics, or radiation studies.
The Russian Central Aerological Observatory (CAO) announces the availability for international scientists to use their aircraft laboratory “Roshydromet” for various investigations of atmospheric environmental parameters during the Year of Polar Prediction. More information can be found in the pdf file.
16 August 2016: Welcome to four new PPP Steering Group Members
Four new members are joining the Steering Group of the Polar Prediction Project this summer. Welcome to Barbara Casati, Jackie Dawson, Daniela Liggett, and Steffen M. Olsen who were elected new members during the 7th Steering Group meeting held this May in Beijing, China.
Barbara Casati is a research scientist working for Environmental and Climate Change Canada. She will support the Steering Group with her expertise in forecast verification. In polar regions verification poses particular challenges that will be addressed within YOPP.
Steffen Olsen is a lead scientist in coupled model systems and oceanography at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) in Copenhagen, Denmark. Regionally focussed on the North Atlantic and Arctic, his expertise includes modelling of thermohaline processes and climate predictability studies. Steffen coordinates the new Arctic H2020 program Blue-Action and is involved in several YOPP-relevant EU-FP7 projects.
Jackie Dawson and Daniela Liggett are strengthening the social component of PPP and YOPP. Both are part of the PPP subcommittee on Societal and Economic Research Applications (PPP-SERA). Jackie Dawson is a professor at the University of Ottawa, Canada, and the director of the Environment, Society and Policy Group studying the human and political dimensions of environmental change. Daniela Liggett is a lecturer at the University of Canterbury, New Zealand, focussing on environmental management and tourism regulation in polar environments.
All members of the current PPP Steering Group are listed here.
05 August 2016: Report on Planning Meeting for YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere available
The report on the Planning Meeting of the Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere is now available online.
Activities for the Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere are coordinated by the YOPP-SH sub-committee which is led by PPP Steering Group member David Bromwich, leader of the Polar Meteorology Group at the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center (BPCRC) in Columbus, Ohio, United States. To push forward the Southern Hemisphere portion of the YOPP initiative, the first planning meeting for YOPP-SH activities took place on June, 6th, 2016 in Ohio.
About 50 international scientists and representatives of forecasting centres discussed the state of planned research activities during YOPP in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Resulting from the meeting‘s discussion, it was agreed that the Special Observing Period in the Southern Hemisphere will take place during Austral Spring 2018 to Austral Fall 2019. For more information on YOPP-SH activities, please also visit the site of the Polar Meteorology Group at The Ohio State University.
03 August 2016: Online Request for YOPP Endorsement Launched
The International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction (ICO) welcomes projects, programs and initiatives that plan to contribute to the aims of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) to request endorsement by YOPP. Requests can now be submitted online at http://apps3.awi.de/YPP/.
After submission, the ICO sends out your request to two members of the PPP Steering Group who review the applying project’s quality and relevance for YOPP and provide their recommendation to officially endorse the project. Since October 2015, more than thirty projects aiming at improving polar prediction skills by various scientific approaches have been already endorsed by YOPP. In order to simplify the submission process, the ICO has now moved the submission to an online tool: To submit your application, please register at http://apps3.awi.de/YPP/ and follow the instructions. Entering your information requested about the project includes a short (max. 250 words) and a detailed project description (max. 1000 words) with more details on how your project relates to YOPP. New to the online submission is also that, if applicable, information on data management, geographic specification, and societal relevance can now be added to the online form. The latter in particular addresses projects in the field of societal and economic research. For any question, please contact the ICO at office[at]polarprediction.net.
21 July 2016: Report from 7th PPP Steering Group Meeting now available
The report of the 7th meeting of the PPP Steering Group is now available for download here. The meeting was cordially hosted by the National Marine Environment Forecasting Center (NMEFC) based in Beijing, China. From May 23-25, 2016, members of the Steering Group and invited representatives of Chinese national polar and forecasting institutions discussed further procedures for preparing the Year of Polar Prediction that will be launched mid of next year.
20 July 2016: AAS Special Issue Impact of a Rapidly Changing Arctic on Eurasian Climate and Weather
The Call for Papers for the special issue Impact of a Rapidly Changing Arctic on Eurasian Climate and Weather in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (more information)
Description of the Special Issue:
The Arctic climate system has experienced many drastic changes during recent decades, such as its average surface air temperature increasing at around twice the global average rate, and a large decline in sea ice cover. At the same time, an increase in frequency of climate and weather extreme occurrences has also been observed. It has therefore been hypothesized that changes in mid-latitude atmospheric circulation and weather patterns may be attributable to Arctic climate change. Pronounced scientific controversy in testing this hypothesis, along with important socio-economic implications of a possible Arctic-Eurasia climate linkage, makes this one of the most timely and attractive scientific topics in climate research.
This special issue will showcase recent progresses in our understanding of the coupling between Arctic climate change and Eurasian mid-latitude climate and weather, including extremes. The compilation of the research papers in this special issue is expected to fill key scientific gaps and hence contribute to a more thorough understanding of the problem. Submissions in, but not limited to, the following research areas, are invited:
- Observational and statistical evidence of changes in Eurasian weather and climate, as well as occurrence of extremes, in conjunction with changes in Arctic climate;
- Detection and attribution of linkages between Arctic climate change and Eurasian midlatitude climate and weather based on observations and numerical model experiments;
- Evaluation of uncertainties and their potential impacts on Arctic-Eurasia linkages arising from the use of relatively short observational records and caused by model deficiencies.
Deadline for manuscript submission is October 30, 2016. Authors are requested to submit via the editorial system mc03.manuscriptcentral.com/aasiap selecting “Special issue: Arctic”.
20 July 2016: AGU 2016 Fall Meeting Session on Sustained observations of rapid Arctic change
The 2016 AGU Fall Meeting Session Sustained observations of rapid Arctic change covers various aspects of Arctic observing system science and technology relevant to activities within the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) and the Polar Prediction Project.
A rapidly changing Arctic challenges our ability to predict and effectively respond to major environmental and socio-economic transformations underway in the North and reverberating throughout the global system. Sustained observations of key variables and processes that capture variability, long-term trends and regime shifts, including high resolution paleoclimate records, are central to furthering understanding of the drivers and impacts of change, the development of prediction systems from sub-seasonal to decadal timescales and to the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures. This session welcomes presentations that describe major findings and lessons learned from existing observing efforts at high and mid latitudes, as well as those that address the full range of scientific issues underlying development and implementation of Arctic observing systems, such as advances in the science and technology of sustained observations (incl. autonomous sensor systems), observing system design and implementation.
Organizers of this session (Hajo Eicken, Julie Brigham-Grette, Craig Lee and Peter Schlosser) welcome any contributions on the potential role of YOPP in the context of sustained observations, such as providing guidance on sensor placement, the role of sustained observations in the context of synoptic, seasonal and inter annual predictions etc.
More information can be found here.
04 July 2016: Arctic Predictability dataset APPOSITE now published
The APPOSITE Arctic Predictability dataset has now been published in the EGU journal Geoscientific Model Development. Several international groups used their global climate models to forecast the Arctic climate in a so-called „perfect-model“ world - an approach that reveals how long into the future Arctic climate can in principle be predicted. The simulation data, now available publicly here, revealed for example that Arctic sea-ice extent and ice-edge location could be predicted much better compared to current operational forecasting systems. The data set opens up opportunities also for the Year of Polar Prediction. For example, why not testing and developing statistical sea-ice forecasting methods in these virtual realities where the real-world data sparseness is unknown? Or studying where future observational data should be taken because they are crucial for better predictions?
Reference: Day, J. J., Tietsche, S., Collins, M., Goessling, H. F., Guemas, V., Guillory, A., Hurlin, W. J., Ishii, M., Keeley, S. P. E., Matei, D., Msadek, R., Sigmond, M., Tatebe, H., and Hawkins, E.: The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2255-2270, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016, 2016.
24 June 2016: Dynamics of Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Interactions in the High Latitudes – Workshop Report now available online
The report on the workshop Dynamics of Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Interactions in the High Latitudes has now been published online in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. From 23-27 March, 90 scientists from 13 different countries gathered in the scenic fjord village of Rosendal, Norway, in order to discuss our current understanding of the physical processes for weather and climate prediction, significantly relevant for PPP and YOPP. Participants agreed that for a comprehensive coupling of atmospheric processes with sea ice and ocean conditions in future forecast models corresponding time scales need to be considered carefully. Advances in forecasting skills also means to better understand the human impact to natural weather and climate systems. The report by Thomas Spenger et al. can be downloaded at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00302.1.
Reference: Spengler, T., I. Renfrew, A. Terpstra, M. Tjernström, J. Screen, I. Brooks, A., Carleton, D. Chechin, L. Chen, J. Doyle, I. Esau, P. Hezel, T. Jung, T. Kohyama, C. Lüpkes, K. McCusker, T. Nygård, D. Sergeev, M. Shupe, H. Sodemann, and T. Vihma, 2016: High Latitude Dynamics of Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Interactions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00302.1, in press.
07 June 2016: SAVE THE DATE – Polar Prediction Workshop 2017
The 4th Polar Prediction Workshop is scheduled for 27-29 March 2017. Jointly organised by the Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (WCRP-PCPI), the Polar Prediction Project (WWRP-PPP), and the Sea Ice Prediction Network (ARCUS-SIPN), the workshop will be hosted by the International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven, Germany.
The workshop will build on a series of international workshops held in Boulder, USA (2014), Reading, UK (2015), and Palisades, USA (2016). As in previous years, the focus will be on environmental prediction in the polar regions on a wide range of timescales, thereby helping to build a „seamless“ polar prediction community. Sea ice will again play a central role, with one desired outcome being the compilation of recommendations for the 2017 Sea Ice Outlook season. However, the workshop also aims to stimulate discussion on other interesting predictands of the polar weather and climate system.
Details will be announced in due course here.
Workshop Organisers: Cecilia Bitz, Helge Goessling, Kirstin Werner, Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Ed Hawkins, and John Fyfe
06 June 2016: International Arctic Climate & Environment Young Scientists School in Russian Arctic, Apatity, Kola Peninsula
The International school-conference for young scientists “Climate, geography and
environment of the Russian Arctic” will take place in Apatity town, Murmansk region, in Russia from 4-10 September 2016.
Registration is now open for Bachelor, Master or PhD students and any other young scientists. No registration fee is required. Travel and accommodation costs are covered by participants. For more information and registration please go on the conference website apatity2016.ru
02 June 2016: PPP-SERA meeting report now available online
From 18-22 April 2016, the Societal and Economic Research and Applications (SERA) sub-committee of PPP convened for the second time for their annual organizing meeting at Gateway Antarctica, Canterbury University in Christchurch, New Zealand. The meeting report which is now available online provides an overview of the working group's future plans to help collaborating with stakeholders of PPP and YOPP such as forecasting services and their individual users. Download the report here.
01 June 2016: New WMO Consultant appointed for the International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction
Richard Swinbank has been appointed as the new WMO Consultant supporting the International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction in PPP and YOPP activities. The atmospheric scientist has managed the ensemble forecasting research group of the Met Office in Exeter, United Kingdom. In particular, he has worked for the Met Office's contribution TIGGE as part of the international research programme THORPEX which aimed at improving the accuracy of short- and medium-range weather forecasts. Richard was also founding co-chair of the WWRP working group on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting.
17 May 2016: Paving the Way for the Year of Polar Prediction – Finalized Meeting Summary of YOPP Summit available online
On May 14th, the finalized version of the YOPP Summit meeting summary has been published online in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). The paper with the above title gives a concise overview of important decisions made at the YOPP Summit. Strategies and the elements for the implementation of the Year of Polar Prediction were discussed and further developed during the summit that took place from 13-15 July 2015 in Geneva.
Goessling, H. F., Jung, T., Klebe, S., Baeseman, J., Bauer, P , Chen, P., Chevallier, M., Dole, R., Gordon, N., Ruti, P., Bradley, A., Bromwich, D. H., Casati, B., Chechin, D., Day, J. J., Massonnet, F., Mills, B., Renfrew, I., Smith, G. and Tatusko, R. (2015): Paving the Way for the Year of Polar Prediction, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00270.1
09 May 2016: PPP is co-sponsoring CLIVAR Workshop 'Arctic Change & Its Influence on Mid-Latitude Climate & Weather'
From February 1-3, 2017, the workshop 'Arctic Change & Its Influence on Mid-Latitude Climate & Weather' will be held at Georgetown University, Washington, DC. PPP is one of the co-sponsors of the workshop that is organized by the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR). During the workshop possible links between Arctic change and mid-latitude climate and weather that has spurred a rush of new observational and modeling studies will be discussed. More information is available here.
Download the workshop flyer (pdf).
04 May 2016: New Project Officer for the International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction
This week Kirstin Werner joined the International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven. As the project officer, she will be supporting the ICO team in PPP and YOPP activities. Kirstin did her PhD at GEOMAR Kiel where she studied the Arctic oceanographic and sea-ice variability over the past ca 12,000 years in high-resolution sediment cores from the eastern Fram Strait. She has worked as a postdoc in the US, at the Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research in Boulder, Colorado and the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center in Columbus, Ohio. Recently, Kirstin started an 'on the job' master program in the field of science marketing at Technical University Berlin.
27 April 2016: Transfer between information-providers and stakeholders under focus
The YOPP sub-committee on Societal and Economic Research and Applications convened in Christchurch, New Zealand, 18-22 April, under the leads of Brian Mills, ECCC, Canada, and Jackie Dawson, University of Ottawa, Canada, to discuss future improvements in knowledge transfer. A brief report of the outcomes will soon be made available.
19 April 2016: Impressions of the Abisko Polar Prediction School
The first Polar Prediction School ended on 14 April 2016. The feedback from students and lecturers is very clear: PPS2016 was a great success! View some impressions on Storify: https://storify.com/meteodenny/pps2016
07 April 2016: Polar Prediction School at Abisko commenced
First experiments and measurements were carried out in Swedish Abisko by 28 polar early career scientist who gathered for the first school on polar prediction organized by the Bolin Centre, CliC/WCRP, and PPP. From April 5-15 the young scientists will acquire a better understanding for the rapid changes in the polar regions and the necessity of enhanced polar prediction capabilities as a crucial tool for environmental services systems. Instructors from Sweden, France, Norway, UK, US, and Germany have prepared a comprehensive set of lecutres, exercises, and field experiments and are looking forward to share their knowledge.
16 March 2016: QJRMS special issue on polar prediction online
A special section of the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society dedicated to polar prediction has been published online. You will find a collection of articles that provides an assessment of the current state of the art of weather prediction of the polar regions, and provides guidance for future research priorities needed to advance our predictive capabilities. View special
14 March 2016: YOPP features at ASSW2016
The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) features at several sessions during the Arctic Science Summit Week 2016 at UAF, Fairbanks, Alaska. Next YOPP event is Monday, March 14, 5pm local time, UAF campus, Duckering building, room 252. Conveners: Thomas Jung, Renee Tatusko. View agenda.
09 February 2016: Additional funding for outreach and knowledge transfer component within the International Coordination Office (ICO) secured
Winfried Hoke has recently joined the ICO at the Alfred-Wegener-Institute in Bremerhaven. For the preparation of the Year of Polar Prediction Project, he will further the Outreach and Knowledge Transfer component in close cooperation with PPP’s societal and economic research applications (SERA) committee within a project funded by the Earth System Knowledge Platform (ESKP) of the Helmholtz Association. Winfried Hoke completed the master programme ‘Natural Resources Management and Ecological Engineering’ at University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria and at Lincoln University, New Zealand.
03 February 2016: Polar Predictability Workshop 2016 - Call for Abstracts
The Polar Predictability Workshop 2016, co-organized and co-sponsored by the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, the Sea Ice Prediction Network, the Polar Climate Predictability Initiative, and the Polar Prediction Project, will be held 4-6 May in Palisades, New York. Read more, submit an abstract, and/or register on the workshop page.
02 February 2016: YOPP-UK workshop report available
UK scientists met to discuss the UK's contribution to the Year of Polar Prediction. A workshop report is now available on the science workshops page.
26 January 2016: Rick Thoman joins the Societal and Economic Research Applications committee for the Polar Prediction Project
With three decades professional experience in the western science side of high latitude weather and climate and working with Athabascan communities in Alaska as a linguist, Rick intends to bring in a prospective to SERA that will help bridge two quite different worldviews. Each has important assets to offer the other, and with sustained partnerships and working together in a respectful manner, science and indigenous communities can achieve more than either can alone and will help keep the North a place to work, play and call home. Welcome to the Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), Rick!
20 January 2016: How to improve polar prediction capacity? BAMS paper Early View Online Version available
An overview paper summarizing PPP's approach to advance polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales has just been published online in BAMS, the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00246.1
Reference: Jung, T., N. Gordon, P. Bauer, D. Bromwich, M. Chevallier, J. Day, J. Dawson, F. Doblas-Reyes, C. Fairall, H. Goessling, M. Holland, J. Inoue, T. Iversen, S. Klebe, P. Lemke, M. Losch, A. Makshtas, B. Mills, P. Nurmi, D. Perovich, P. Reid, I. Renfrew, G. Smith, G. Svensson, M. Tolstykh, and Q. Yang, 2016: Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales. Bull. Amer. Meteor.
Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00246.1, in press.
15 January 2016: Vacancy at AWI Bremerhaven - Project Officer position in the International Coordination Office (ICO) for Polar Prediction
The International Coordination Office (ICO) for Polar Prediction is hosted by the Alfred Wegener Institute Bremerhaven, Germany. We are seeking to appoint a Project Officer to support the management and implementation of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) and the Polar Prediction Project (PPP). www.awi.de/nc/en/work-study/jobs/job-offer/detail/jobs/12gkli-project-officer-in-the-international-coordination-office-ico-for-polar-prediction.html
07 January 2016: Meeting summary "Polar-lower latitude linkages" published
The "Polar-lower latitude linkages" workshop that was held in Barcelona, Spain, in late 2014 formulated recommendations how to foster the current understanding of the polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for weather and climate prediction. Read more about the atmospheric and oceanic linkages from the prediction and services perspective.
27 November 2015: Read how "Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route"
New Scientific Report by Inoue et al. now online open at http://www.nature.com/articles/srep16868
18 November 2015: 7th IICWG International Workshop on Sea Ice Data Assimilation and Verification - Call for abstracts open
The call for abstracts for the7th IICWG International Workshop on Sea Ice Data Assimilation and Verification is open now.
This joint workshop between the International Ice Charting Working Group (IICWG), the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Polar Prediction Project (PPP), WWRP Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) and GODAE Oceanview (GOV) will be held 5-7 April 2016 at ESA(ESRIN), Frascati, Italy.
Open workshop page
10 November 2015: Paving the Way for the Year of Polar Prediction
A paper with the above title has been published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). The paper gives a concise overview of important decisions made at the YOPP Summit that took place in July in Geneva: link .
05 November 2015: First projects endorsed
The launch of the endorsement process for YOPP was well received in the community and triggered a dozen proposals in the first weeks. So far, three requests for endorsement were reviewed by the PPP steering group and formally endorsed. FAMOS, the MOSAiC project, and additional radiosondes for upper air soundings from Polarstern and automatic weather stations (AWS) on the Antarctic continent through AWI were the first projects endorsed. The review process for all proposals submitted is continuing.
22 October 2015: YOPP endorsement process launched
Since a few days the YOPP endorsement process is up and running. The Steering Group of the Polar Prediction Project (PPP) provides endorsement for projects, programs, and initiatives that plan to contribute to the aims of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP): click here .
07 October 2015: YOPP representation at ICSHMO, Santiago, Chile
At the 11th Session of the International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, 05-09 October 2015, Santiago, Chile, PPP & YOPP were respresented by Neil D. Gordon, Otaki, New Zealand.
Download presentation, http://www.icshmo-2015.com/index.php
02 October 2015: The Arctic Circle in 2050: Charting a new course through the last frontier
A televised panel discussion moderated by David Eades from BBC World on Saturday, 17 October, 15.30-17.00 as part of the Arctic Circle meeting. Join the panel of world-leading experts as they discuss what climate and weather information will be needed to successfully journey through the Arctic Circle in 2050.
16 September 2015: New article on polar-lower latitude linkages now online
An article on Polar-lower latitude linkages and theit role in weather and climate prediction by Francois Massonnet is now available in Physics Today at
04 September 2015: YOPP Summit Final Report available
The YOPP Summit for the preparation of the Year of Polar Prediction was held 13-15 July at WMO Headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland. The meeting report is now available.
28 August 2015: Final report of the 6th Steering Group Meeting available
The final report of the 6th Steering Group Meeting of the Polar Prediction Project, held 15-16 July at WMO Headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, is now available here.
25 August 2015: Workshop on Arctic-Central U.S. hydrology linkages announced
Registration is now open for the workshop 'Implications of a Changing Arctic on Water Resources and Agriculture in the Central U.S.' to be held at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln from November 10-12, 2015. For more information and to register for the workshop, visit the website http://go.unl.edu/arcticclimateworkshop
10 August 2015: SOOS-SORP Comment on YOPP Implementation Plan Published
The Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS) and Southern Ocean Regional Panel (SORP) have published a comment on the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Implementation Plan: https://zenodo.org/record/27261?ln=en#.VciZIYuWZAw
31 July 2015: Call for AOS 2016 White Papers and Short Statements: NOW OPEN!
The Arctic Observing Summit Executive Organizing Committee now welcomes community input and the submission of white papers on the AOS 2016 themes:
- International and national strategies for sustained support of long-term Arctic observing
- Technology and innovation for sustained Arctic observations
- Contributions of the Private Sector and Industry to sustained Arctic observations
- Actor and Stakeholder engagement and needs in sustained Arctic observations
- Arctic Observations in the context of Global Observing initiatives
- Interfacing Traditional Knowledge, Community-based Monitoring and Scientific Methods for sustained Arctic observations
Deadline for submission is Oct. 18, 2015.
09 July 2015: YOPP Summit to commence Monday, 13 July
To inform about and to finalize planning for the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is the main goal of the YOPP Summit that will commence on Monday, 13 July, at 1pm at WMO headquarters in Geneva. Stakeholder and science sessions as well as discussions in plenaries and breakout groups will be used to engage natural and social scientists, stakeholders, representatives of operational weather and climate prediction centres, international organizations, univiersities and funding agencies into the planning to make YOPP a community effort and success.
Live streaming of the plenary sessions will be available at www.wmo.int/yopp
29 June 2015: WWOSC Book now online
The WWOSC book „Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: from Minutes to Month“ (chapter 19 on PPP) is now available online at http://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/wmo_1156_en.pdf. Hard copies are expected for September.
World Meteorological Organization, 2015: Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: from Minutes to Months, (G Brunet, S Jones, PM Ruti Eds.), (WMO-No. 1156), (ISBN 978-92-63-11156-2), Geneva.
17 June 2015: Improved polar prediction is part of one of seven WMO priorities for the period 2016-2019
World Meteorological Congress agrees priorities for 2016-2019
16 June 2015: Call for abstracts: Session on polar-lower latitude linkages at AGU Fall Meeting, 14-18 December 2015, San Francisco.
Abstract submission now open for a session on "Predictability of Subarctic Weather: Internal Variability, Teleconnections, and Local Forcing". Session details
10 June 2015: Linkages workshop report available as early online release
An early online release of the report of the workshop on "Polar-lower latitude linkages and their role in weather and climate prediction" has been published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. View report
13 May 2015: BAMS paper discusses the future of three THORPEX legacy projects
The discussion outcomes of a U.S. community meeting about the future of the three THORPEX legacy projects PPP, S2S and HIWeather were published in a BAMS paper which suggests the development of an integrated, multiagency programme including the elaboration of a science plan. Read more...
08 May 2015: APECS-WWRP-Polar Prediction Project Webinar Series - Part 2: Progress and,Challenges in Predicting Arctic Sea Ice on May 11, 18:00 CET
This seminar is the second in the APECS-WWRP-Polar Prediction ProjectWebinar Series. The speakers are Cecilia Bitz (University of Washington, USA) and Julienne Stroeve (National Snow and Ice Data Centre/University of Colorado) Registration URL: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/174329034268135426
The webinar will be recorded and archived afterwards in the APECS Past Webinar list http://www.apecs.is/career-resources/apecs-webinars/past-webinars.html
17 April 2015: Fast access to CryoSat's Arctic ice measurements now available
Fast access to sea-ice observational data is an important step towards better initialization of polar predictions. Anticipated improvements in forecast skill will be beneficial for managing and planning activities affected by Arctic sea ice, such as shipping, tourism, Arctic exploration and search and rescue. Read more...
13 April 2015: Latest Mercator Ocean Quarterly Newsletter features YOPP
The latest Mercator Ocean Quarterly Newsletter issue #51 dedicated to sea ice modelling and data assimilation is now available at: http://www.mercator-ocean.fr/eng/actualites-agenda/newsletter/newsletter-Newsletter-51-Special-Issue-with-ICE-ARC
Chapter 3 presents the challenges and opportunities of YOPP (The Year of Polar Prediction).
30 March 2015: Workshop Résumé available
A résumé of the "Polar-Lower Latitude Linkages Workshop" that took place in Barcelona from 10-12 December 2014 is now available at http://www.polarprediction.net/linkages/resume.html
A set of recommendations is currently being compiled and will be available as workshop report very soon.
23 March 2015: High Latitude Dynamics Workshop starting today
Polar scientists have assembled in Rosendal, Norway, to discuss the dynamics of polar weather and climate. The workshop goal is to summarize our fundamental understanding and description of small-scale processes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice climate system at high latitudes in order to assess and reduce bias and uncertainties in weather prediction and climate models. Read more at http://highlatdynamics.b.uib.no.
17 March 2015: APECS Webinar on Polar Environment Prediction now on vimeo
Thomas Jung introduces the Polar Prediction Project. View the presentation on vimeo at https://vimeo.com/122323499
04 March 2015: IARPC Webinar Series on YOPP on March 17, 3 to 4pm EDT
Webinar series on the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) with Drs Don Perovich, Marika Hollands, and David Bromwich.
03 March 2015: UK-Report "Responding to a Changing Arctic" recommends to support Arctic science
In their recently published report "Responding to a Changing Arctic" the UK's House of Lords Arctic Committee recommends to support Arctic science more strongly.
The requirement for improved environmental prediction is mentioned numerous times in the report and in many contexts and refers to the written evidence submitted by the PPP Steering Group.
The report is UK-focused, and very wide ranging, covering science, societal impacts and change, politics, industry and security issues. One key recommendation is "... that the Government looks to establish a substantial and better co-ordinated long-term programme of Arctic research […]“
Read more at http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/arcticcom/news/report-published/
26 February 2015: WWRP/WCRP/Bolin Centre Polar Prediction School
A Polar Prediction School will be held at the Abisko Field Station in Arctic Sweden from 5-15 April 2016 sponsored by WWRP, WCRP, and the Bolin Center. The school is part of the WWRP Polar Prediction Project and the WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative.
This course on Polar Prediction will provide training for 30 PhD and early career post-doctoral polar scientists, focusing on topics such as: polar mesoscale atmospheric processes; sea ice prediction, near term ensemble prediction, and seasonal-to-decadal climate variability and prediction in the polar regions. The program will combine lectures on key areas relevant for polar prediction and a number of field observation and modelling exercises to foster an interactive learning environment.
We are asking for people interested in this school to fill out the Expression of Interest form by 15 May. You can find the form here: http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/wcrp/pcpi/meetings/abisko-pp-2016/expression-of-interest
Limited travel support may be available, particularly for participants from developing countries.
For more information on the school, visit http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/wcrp/pcpi/meetings/abisko-pp-2016. For any questions, contact Jonny Day <firstname.lastname@example.org>
24 February 2015: APECS-WWRP-Polar Prediction Project Webinar Series - Part 1: Polar Weather Prediction
New APECS webinar series in Spring 2015. The first webinar in this series on 2 March at 16 CET with the title "Polar Weather Prediction"will introduce Professor Dr. Thomas Jung, chair of the Polar Prediction Project, read more...
4 February 2015: Polar Predictability Workshop - Call for Abstracts
The "Polar Predictability Workshop", to be held April 8th-10th 2015 at the University of Reading, UK, will discuss polar climate variability & predictability on seasonal to decadal timescales. Abstracts for talks or posters are encouraged for sessions on understanding causes of polar climate variability in observations and models, idealised predictability studies, operational polar forecasts and use of polar predictions by stakeholders. Submission deadline is Friday, 20th February. For more info, see the workshop website.
19 January 2015: WCRP launches Polar Challenge
The World Climate Research Program (WCRP) is launching a Polar Challenge to reward the first team able to send an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) for a 2000km mission under the sea-ice in the Arctic or Antarctic. The ultimate aim is to demonstrate a sorely-needed monitoring tool for the Polar regions to expand scientific research capabilities and climate services in both the Arctic and Antarctic. Data collected by such vehicles can potentially make a strong contribution to improved polar predictions. Find out more at http://www.wcrp-climate.org/index.php/polarchallenge.
17 December 2014: International workshop on Polar-lower latitude linkages held in Barcelona
80 experts from 20 different countries met in Barcelona, Spain, from 10-12 December 2014 to discuss extensively about Polar-lower latitude linkages and their role in weather and climate prediction, one of the flagship activities of the Polar Prediction Project. A workshop report and recorded talks will be made available early next year. For details, see the workshop page.
9 December 2014: Workshop on polar-mid latitude linkages begins tomorrow - online participation possible!
The WWRP-WCRP "International workshop on polar-lower latitude linkages and their role in weather and climate prediction" begins tomorrow, December 10, in Barcelona. Experts from all over the world will meet to discuss this subject which is also an important aspect of the Polar Prediction Project. We encourage anyone interested to attend this important event online via the GoToWebinar platform (kindly provided by the CliC Project Office). You can find all relevant information on the workshop page.
19 November 2014: PPP Progress Report at WWRP Scientific Steering Committee
Thomas Jung presented progress on the development and implementation of PPP to the Scientific Steering Committee of the World Weather Research Programme at their latest meeting in Geneva, Switzerland. The presentation along with a progress report is available at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documentation_plan_WWRSSC7_2014.html
19 November 2014: Year Of Polar Prediction - Implementation Plan released
we are pleased to let you know that the Implementation Plan for the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) has been officially released. It is available at http://www.polarprediction.net/documents.html.
YOPP is a key activity of the WMO/WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and aims to enable a significant improvement in environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and education activities.
We would like to point out that YOPP is a community effort and that everyone interested is invited to make contributions.
18 November 2014: The PPP steering group welcomes four new members
We are happy to announce that four outstanding scientists have joined the PPP steering group: Jun Inoue (top left) from the National Institute of Polar Research, Japan; Alexander Makshtas (top right) from the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Russia; Matthieu Chevallier (bottom left) from the National Centre for Meteorological Research, France; and Qinghua Yang (bottom right) from the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, China. These new members, reflecting the international composition of the steering group, are an important addition to move PPP and the Year of Polar Prediction forward. Welcome aboard!
29 October 2014: Could forecasting problems put Arctic shipping plans on ice?
PPP steering group member Jonny Day and colleagues at the University of Reading demonstrate the importance of proper sea-ice thickness initialisation for skillful sea-ice predictions. This research highlights the need for better sea-ice thickness observations and thus corroborates the importance of additional observations to be taken within the PPP Year Of Polar Prediction. Read the press release and the corresponding publication!
08 October 2014: New mailing list for prediction and predictability in polar regions
Arctic and Antarctic weather and climate prediction and predictability issues are high up on the polar (research) communities' agenda. A vast amount of information is available in different media. To help connect sending and receiving parties, a dedicated electronic mailing list tailored to people interested in Arctic and Antarctic prediction and predictability is being set up by CliC and the ICO for Polar Prediction. We will strive to keep you informed about upcoming events, recent findings, new papers and developments.
To be added to the list, please send an email to email@example.com with the subject line: subscribe prediction mailing list.
Members of the list will be able to post directly. If you are not a member and you would like to send something, please send your message to Stefanie Klebe <firstname.lastname@example.org>.
We encourage you to forward this announcement to your colleagues.
06 October 2014: PPP chairman Thomas Jung attended the 4th meeting of WMO's Polar Satellite Task Group
The meeting was held on 29 September 2014 at NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre in Maryland, US. PPP has been invited by the space agencies to develop a document outlining the satellite requirements necessary to advance polar prediction capabilities in the framework of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
01 Oct 2014: Helge Goessling appointed director of International Coordination Office (ICO) for Polar Prediction
As of today climate scientist Helge Goessling serves as director of the ICO for Polar Prediction. Together with the chairman of the Polar Prediction Project Thomas Jung and the Steering Group he will foster collaboration between international projects, initiatives, and programmes related to polar prediction research. One of his major tasks will be the promotion of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) planned for mid-2017 to mid-2019.
30 Sep 2014: House of Lords Committee on the Arctic publishes call for evidence
Today PPP Steering Group members submitted written evidence to the UK Parliament on the state of weather and environmental prediction in the Arctic. The House of Lords Select Committee for the Arctic is in the process of gathering written evidence and will report in February 2015.
The call for evidence is available at http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/arcticcom/news/arctic-call-for-evidence/
Read the PPP submission
17 Sep 2014: Workshop on the Dynamics of Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Interactions in the High-Latitudes in March 2015
The workshop aims to summarise our fundamental understanding and description of small-scale processes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice climate system at high latitudes in order to assess and reduce bias and uncertainties in weather prediction and climate models. 23-27 March, 2015.
Application deadline 8 October 2014
26 Aug 2014: SG5 in conjunction with WWOSC
The fifth meeting of the PPP Steering Group was held directly after the World Weather Open Science Conference in Montréal, Canada. The report will soon be available.
19 June 2014: Arctic influence on subseasonal mid-latitude prediction
A new paper, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, shows that improved Arctic prediction capabilities do have a beneficial influence on weather forecasts in mid-latitudes, especially over Asia, Eastern Europe and North America.
13 May 2014: Thomas Jung visits NMEFC in Beijing, China
Thomas Jung,chair of the WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP), visited the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Centre (NMEFC) on 13 May 2014 to discuss possible future contributions of NMEFC to PPP.
Photo: Prof. Hui Wang, director general of NMEFC, and Prof. Thomas Jung, chair of the WWRP Polar Prediction Project
05 May 2014: David Carlson appointed WCRP Joint Planning Staff Director
...and will take duty in June 2014. Read more: http://www.wcrp-climate.org/
02 April 2014: ASSW and AOS with participation of PPP
The Arctic Science Summit Week (ASSW) and the Arctic Observing Summit (AOS) in Helsinki are approaching.
The Polar Prediction Project (PPP) will be represented with their second planning meeting (YPM-2) for the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) April 8 2014. Thomas Jung, chair of PPP, will serve as one of the panelists in the AOS "Stakeholder Integration in Arctic Observation" session April 9. A townhall meeting and panel in the evening of April 9 will discuss three main questions related to polar prediction: What is holding us back? What are the observational needs? How can stakeholders best be involved and what services do they need?
09 January 2014: "Polar regions under climate change" public lecture
View and listen to Prof. Peter Lemke, former PPP Steering Group Member, in a public seminar on "The polar regions under climate change" in a lecture series of IIASA and the Austrian Academy of Sciences: Listen to his lecture on YouTube
31 December 2013: PPP session at WWOSC 2014
The World Weather Open Science Conference in Montreal, 16-21 August 2014 offers a session on Polar Prediction convened by members of the PPP steering group. Drs. Marika Holland (NCAR) and David Bromwich (Byrd Polar Research Center) have confirmed their invited talks.
The call for abstracts and registration is open now: http://wwosc2014.org/welcome_e.shtml
20 December 2013: International workshop on verification methods: Abstract submission by 15th January 2014
The call for abstract for the 6th International Verification Methods Workshop is open until 15th January 2014.
09 December 2013: PPP mentioned favourably during WMO's November CAS session in Antalya
The Sixteenth Session of the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS-16) was held in late November in Antalya, Turkey.
During the session the Commission noted the progress made in the implementation of the Polar Prediction Project (PPP) so far and encouraged all WMO members to engage in the planning process of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP). Read more about CAS-16 and, more general, on the WMO-CAS pages.
03 December 2013: SAVE THE DATE of the next PPP SG-meeting
The fifth Steering Group Meeting SG-5 is scheduled for 22-23 August 2014, Montreal, Canada. View PPP meetings schedule
15 October 2013: Donald K. Perovich appointed new steering group member
As of 15th October 2013 Donald K. Perovich is member of the PPP steering group. The appointment of Don Perovich will strengthen the observational aspects within PPP.
01-03 October 2013: 4th Steering Group Meeting at NCAR and NOAA, Boulder, CO
The Steering Group met for the fourth time. One of the points the Steering Group discussed was the Implementation Plan for YOPP, the Year of Polar Prediction, which will be available for download after revision. Read more about SG-4
26 September 2013: Memorandum of Understanding between WMO and AWI signed
The Memorandum of Understanding between World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) has been signed which assigns AWI the hosting of the International Coordation Office for the Polar Prediction Project.
16 August 2013: New members in PPP Steering Group
WMO has appointed new members to the Polar Prediction Project Steering Group: Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes of the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences will serve as full member to the Steering Group. So will Phillip Reid of the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. Jonathan Day of the University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, has been appointed a liaison member to the project.
13 August 2013: WWRP-THORPEX workhop on polar prediction: Final report available
The WWRP-THORPEX workshop on polar prediction was held 24-27 June at ECMWF, Reading. About 40 experts discussed questions on predictability and forecast error diagnosis, teleconnections, data assimilation, representation of polar key processes in (coupled) modelling, and polar observing systems. Download final report.
28 June 2013: YOPP planning meeting #1
The first planning meeting for the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) was held. Read more
02 June 2013: ECMWF-WWRP/THORPEX workshop on polar prediction approaching
24-27 June 2013 ECMWF host a WWRP-THOPEX workshop for polar prediction experts. The workshop will be dedicated to advancing observational and predicitive weather, climate and water informational systems. Research areas addressed are: Predictability and forecast error diagnosis, teleconnections, data assimilation, representation of polar key processes in (coupled) modelling, polar observing systems. Read poster for details...
12 April 2013: ITV News: Met Office investigates Arctic link to record low temperatures in UK
"After some of the coldest temperatures in almost 100 years, the Met Office says it is "urgent" that we address the causes of our changing weather and the possibility that recent record melts in the Arctic are to blame." Read more....
19 March 2013: Science Plan finalized
The Science Plan has been finalized. This document provides a description of the scientific background of the Polar Prediction Project.
18 March 2013: YOPP planning workshop in preparation
The first planning workshop for the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is being prepared. It shall be held June 27-28, 2013 at ECMWF, Reading, UK.
Details to be available soon.